aguywhoplaysthief on 20/7/2006 at 05:40
Quote Posted by Aerothorn
if Syria told Hezbollah to lay down their arms and never shoot anyone again, Hezbollah would just go "oh, okay" and then Israel would go "ok, we love you now Hezbollah".
Umm...just about.
Rogue Keeper on 20/7/2006 at 08:40
Dr. Strangelove
or
How I learned to stop worrying and love the bomb
President Muffley calls the president of the USSR:
Hello? Hello, Dimitri? Listen, I can't hear too well, do you suppose you could turn the music down just a little? Oh, that's much better. Yes. Fine, I can hear you now, Dimitri. Clear and plain and coming through fine. I'm coming through fine too, eh? Good, then. Well then as you say we're both coming through fine. Good. Well it's good that you're fine and I'm fine. I agree with you. It's great to be fine.
Now then Dimitri. You know how we've always talked about the possibility of something going wrong with the bomb. The bomb, Dimitri. The hydrogen bomb. Well now what happened is, one of our base commanders, he had a sort of, well he went a little funny in the head. You know. Just a little... funny. And uh, he went and did a silly thing. Well, I'll tell you what he did, he ordered his planes... to attack your country.
Well let me finish, Dimitri. Let me finish, Dimitri. Well, listen, how do you think I feel about it? Can you imagine how I feel about it, Dimitri? Why do you think I'm calling you? Just to say hello? Of course I like to speak to you. Of course I like to say hello. Not now, but any time, Dimitri. I'm just calling up to tell you something terrible has happened. It's a friendly call. Of course it's a friendly call. Listen, if it wasn't friendly, ... you probably wouldn't have even got it. They will not reach their targets for at least another hour. I am... I am positive, Dimitri.
Listen, I've been all over this with your ambassador. It is not a trick. Well I'll tell you. We'd like to give your air staff a complete run down on the targets, the flight plans, and the defensive systems of the planes. Yes! I mean, if we're unable to recall the planes, then I'd say that, uh, well, we're just going to have to help you destroy them, Dimitri. I know they're our boys. Alright, well, listen... who should we call? Who should we call, Dimitri? The people...? Sorry, you faded away there. The People's Central Air Defense Headquarters. Where is that, Dimitri? In Omsk. Right. Yes. Oh, you'll call them first, will you? Uh huh. Listen, do you happen to have the phone number on you, Dimitri? What? I see, just ask for Omsk Information. I'm sorry too, Dimitri. I'm very sorry. Alright! You're sorrier than I am! But I am sorry as well. I am as sorry as you are, Dimitri. Don't say that you are more sorry than I am, because I am capable of being just as sorry as you are. So we're both sorry, alright? Alright. Yes he's right here. Yes, he wants to talk to you. Just a second...
Aerothorn on 21/7/2006 at 04:14
Quote Posted by aguywhoplaysthief
Umm...just about.
Maybe I am just completely misunderstanding things, but it was my understanding that Syria was supplying arms to and supporting Hezbollah, but that Hezbollah was its own organization fueled by its own hatred, and that if Syria told Hezbollah to stop, Hezbollah would be less well-armed but would otherwise continue on their merry way; they are not gonna stop having homicidal intentions towards Israel just because someone tells them to.
aguywhoplaysthief on 21/7/2006 at 05:52
Military organizations tend to listen to those who supply their arms and funding. Without either you can't do a whole lot very effectively. They could continue along their merry way for some amount of time, but not forever, unless they could secure new sources of funding. Southern Lebanon isn't exactly an economic powerhouse with which to fund war.
Paz on 21/7/2006 at 13:38
Assuming we live in a world without mitigating factors where such simplistic solutions to complex socio-historical problems work, I would suggest that ending the flow of funding and weaponry from anti-State of Israel sources is either impossible, or a task that would last a number of decades. Certainly it would be an excellent goal if it can be achieved through negotiations and economic bribery (I can't see any other realistic way), but it's no answer to the crisis which is happening now.
Meanwhile, Lebanon's economic and cultural development (which I assume you Capitalist-Internationalists believe is a key to reducing terrorism/terrorist sympathies - and I wouldn't disagree) is being gradually destroyed. That's not going to help anyone.
I see a few options:
~ Use special technology to erase the collective memory of the region, remove any traces of religion and hope they can start getting along.
~ Wait until everyone is dead.
~ Hold an uneasy and restrained peace as best possible while every nation in the region develops to a level where terrorist sympathies are extremely rare, whilst discouraging governments from sponsoring various dubious organisations by .. uh .. magic, or something.
~ Go back in time and ask the Imperialist powers of the era not to fuck up quite so badly when drawing arbitrary lines on a map and inventing nation states from nothing.
~ Nation of Israel XI vs Zionist Destruction XI - winner gets the Holy Land.
Admittedly, none of these options are much better than "lol ask Syria not to fund Hezbollah". What's slightly worrying is that our mighty leaders don't seem to have much more of a grasp on the situation than a vaguely informed internet forum poster (the overheard conversation has only served to reinforce this view).
PigLick on 21/7/2006 at 13:52
I think our mighty leaders are going with your second option there.
scumble on 22/7/2006 at 07:21
Quote Posted by Paz
What's slightly worrying is that our mighty leaders don't seem to have much more of a grasp on the situation than a vaguely informed internet forum poster (the overheard conversation has only served to reinforce this view).
I think that's usually the case in most areas of Foreign policy, and it's unrealistic to expect anything more (well, perhaps better than vaguely informed). In fact, anyone who claims to have a real grasp of the situation is probably lying.
What's more worrying is that they think they
do know what they're doing.
Paz on 22/7/2006 at 12:23
Well, yeah, I don't expect an elected head to be a world expert on every potential conflict that could pop up during their premiership - that would be a bit unlikely.
However, I do hope they have some pretty shit-hot advisers who ARE world experts and who they actually listen to. I also don't think it's unreasonable for someone like Blair to have knowledge of the Israeli-Palestinian slapfest to, say, an early university level. There's no definitive evidence to suggest he doesn't, I suppose - but we're having to take that on faith as he doesn't demonstrate much.
One of the problems I'm seeing is that they have to continually square events with their "zomg war on terror" international stance. Therefore, every new action is filtered through that lense - even if it won't fit. They're in a position whereby it's hard for anyone involved in the Iraq Adventure to be seen as anything other than hostile to Lebanon. And I do mean Lebanon, rather than Hezbollah.
Rather than using the language of diplomacy, they can only speak with the in-vogue lexicon of "terror". This is probably unhelpful in the grand scheme of things, at the moment.
Aerothorn on 22/7/2006 at 16:41
But if they stopped it would be providing COMFORT to TERRORISTS!!!
