Renzatic on 27/9/2016 at 03:37
I'd give this one to Hillary. Trump had a good showing at the start, but lost a good deal of his composure by the end. By the 2nd half, he was spending most of his time on the defensive.
I won't say she knocked it out of the park, but she did bloody Trump's nose a bit.
Vae on 27/9/2016 at 04:10
I would say, a fair analysis would call it a draw...Trump was stronger in the first half of the debate, yet got caught up in micro-defenses in the latter half.
However, a draw favors trump in the macro...This is because he has all the momentum, and more enthusiastic support than Hillary does.
Trump has the advantage.
In order for Hillary to win the election, she's going to have to land a devastating blow to Trump between now and November...If she doesn't, Trump will win the Presidency.
Renzatic on 27/9/2016 at 04:34
Trump's an arena speaker, it's no surprise he could raise some hoops and hollers at some point during the debate. That zing at the end about bad experience was a good one, I'll give him that.
But a few good zingers doesn't change the fact he became nigh on incoherent during that second half stretch. He got his ass handed to with the retort on Hillary and her stamina, ironically lost his composure when answering the question as to why he believes Hillary doesn't have what he considers presidential composure, and his answer to 21st century warfare and cybersecurity was basically word salad.
demagogue on 27/9/2016 at 04:42
(x) Cameron Diaz
Vae on 27/9/2016 at 04:47
Quote Posted by Renzatic
Trump's an arena speaker, it's no surprise he could raise some hoops and hollers at some point during the debate. That zing at the end about bad experience was a good one, I'll give him that.
But a few good zingers doesn't change the fact he became nigh on incoherent during that second half stretch. He got his ass handed to with the retort on Hillary and her stamina, ironically lost his composure when answering the question as to why he believes Hillary doesn't have what he considers presidential composure, and his answer to 21st century warfare and cybersecurity was basically word salad.
In effect, what you speak of is relatively minor...All in all, Trump got in a few good shots early and Hillary got a few good shots later on...Ultimately, neither candidate landed any critical blows, and they both held their own.
Again, this type of sparring match favors Trump...because he will win the Presidency, if she's unable to land a devastating blow between now and November.
Quote Posted by demagogue
(x) Cameron Diaz
Forgot about that!...:o
Maybe if Al or nickie swings by, they can add it to the poll!
Renzatic on 27/9/2016 at 04:53
Quote Posted by Vae
In effect, what you speak of is relatively minor...All in all, Trump got in a few good shots early and Hillary got a few good shots later on...Ultimately, neither candidate landed any critical blows, and they both held their own.
If you look at it from the quick jabs, I'd say Trump won. But if you're looking at sustained performance, he lost by a considerable margin.
These debates are more than the witty one-liners they inevitably produce. If you screw up at any moment, which Trump did, it will be picked down to the bone, and used against the candidate by the next day.
Quote:
Again, this type of sparring match favors Trump...because he will win the Presidency, if she's unable to land a devastating blow between now and November.
No, the race is currently a neck and neck tie. There is no requirement for Hillary to land a devastating blow to win the presidency. It's anyone's game. By this point, it's all about who can go the longest without fucking something up. Unfortunately for Trump, that is one of his greatest weaknesses.
Vae on 27/9/2016 at 05:15
Quote Posted by Renzatic
If you look at it from the quick jabs, I'd say Trump won. But if you're looking at sustained performance, he lost by a considerable margin.
If you screw up at any moment, which Trump did, it will be picked down to the bone, and used against the candidate by the next day.
Again, any "screw up" was relatively minor
in effect ...The key word is
effect...and by effect, I mean
consequential mass effect.
Quote:
No, the race is currently a neck and neck tie. There is no requirement for Hillary to land a devastating blow to win the presidency. It's anyone's game. By this point, it's all about who can go the longest without fucking something up. Unfortunately for Trump, that is one of his greatest weaknesses.
Although the race is currently very close according to recent polling, Trump has
momentum and
enthusiasm that Hillary does not. This gives Trump the advantage, because a more enthusiastic base will yield a higher turnout at the polls, versus a non-enthusiastic support base.
This means if the election were held today, Trump would win.
Hillary must achieve
at least a moderate lead in the polling in order for any chance to win...and in order to do that, she must counteract Trump's
momentum...and the only way to do that,
is to land a devastating blow.
henke on 27/9/2016 at 05:20
Quote Posted by Renzatic
and his answer to 21st century warfare and cybersecurity was basically word salad.
Wow, you weren't kidding. I haven't seen the debate but The Verge had a transcript of his answer.
Quote:
Lester Holt, Moderator: Our next segment is called securing America. We want to start with a 21st century war happening every day in this country, our institutions are under cyber attack, and our secrets are being stolen. So my question is who's behind it and how do we fight it?
Donald Trump: I do want to say that I was just endorsed and more are coming next week, it will be over 200 admirals. Many of them are here, admirals and generals endorsed me to lead this country. That just happened. And many more are coming. And I'm very proud of it. In addition, I was just endorsed by the ICE. So when Secretary Clinton talks about I'll take the admirals and generals any day over the political hacks.
Look at the mess that we're in. Look at the mess that we're in. As far as the cyber, I agree to parts of what Secretary Clinton said, we should be better than anybody else, and perhaps we're not. I don't know if we know it was Russia who broke into the DNC.
She's saying Russia, Russia, Russia. Maybe it was. It could also be China, it could be someone sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds. You don't know who broke into DNC, but what did we learn? We learn that Bernie Sanders was taken advantage of by your people. By Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Look what happened to her. But Bernie Sanders was taken advantage of. Now, whether that was Russia, whether that was China, whether it was another country, we don't know, because the truth is, under President Obama we've lost control of things that we used to have control over. We came in with an internet, we came up with the internet.
And I think Secretary Clinton and myself would agree very much, when you look at what ISIS is doing with the internet, they're beating us at our own game. ISIS. So we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare. It is a, it is a huge problem. I have a son.
He's 10 years old. He has computers. He is so good with these computers, it's unbelievable. The security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe it's hardly do-able. But I will say, we are not doing the job we should be doing, but that's true throughout our whole governmental society. We have so many things that we have to do better, Lester and certainly cyber is one of them.
TRUMP - TOUGH ON CYBER
Renzatic on 27/9/2016 at 05:31
Quote Posted by Vae
Again, any "screw up" was relatively minor
in effect ...The key word is
effect...and by effect, I mean
consequential mass effect.
And by what metric do we judge this consequential mass effect by? What are our parameters? Does Trump's nice little gotcha produce more quantifiable gains to this effect than the nearly 4 minutes of incoherent rambling that came before it?
Quote:
Although the race is currently very close according to recent polling, Trump has
momentum and
enthusiasm that Hillary does not. This gives Trump the advantage, because a more enthusiastic base will yield a higher turnout at the polls, versus a non-enthusiastic support base.
This means if the election were held today, Trump would win.
Hillary must achieve
at least a moderate lead in the polling in order for any chance to win...and in order to do that, she must counteract Trump's
momentum...and the only way to do that,
is to land a devastating blow.
Remember, you're talking about something that changes on a week by week basis, where the last two weeks leading up to the election itself are the most important. Remember, two months ago, FiveThirtyEight had Trump's chances for the presidency sitting above Hillary's at 53%. A month ago, they were below 15%. Yesterday, they were at 50%. That momentum he had last week can be reversed in Hillary's favor, then just as easily flipped back again into Trump's favor depending on the circumstances.
As for enthusiasm, he does have a more energetic core than Hillary does, but don't forget that
overall, we're dealing with two of the least popular presidential candidates in recent history, maybe even in living memory. Both have their die-hard pundits who will always swing for them, but the average voter, those who will decide this election, are pretty iffy on either one, and their opinion changes depending upon who pulls the big fuck-up of the week.
It's very much up in the air.
Quote Posted by henke
TRUMP - TOUGH ON CYBER
IT MAY NOT BE DOABLE, BUT HE HAS A SON! A 10 YEAR OLD SON! RUSSIA! BERNIE SANDERS!
