Starker on 6/11/2024 at 16:34
The way I see it, most of the executive power increase so far has come not from Congress, but rather due to Congress not doing its job and instead delegating it to executive actions. And with a Supreme Court willing to cater to the MAGA agenda, the issue is not necessarily what can be done by the executive but rather how much the executive can get away with. They only need people willing to carry out the agenda and from the looks of this election, there's no shortage of supporters of the MAGA ideology. Incompetence and corruption may indeed be the only saving grace here.
heywood on 6/11/2024 at 17:15
Congress doesn't have to act for existing laws to be followed. In his first term, every executive branch policy change of significance was challenged in court. The tradition continued under Biden and it's not going to change now. Our system was designed to be changed by Congress, because that's where the people's representatives are. If there isn't enough popular support to drive a change from Congress, we default to carrying on as we are now and make it difficult for the government to do anything else. It is by design to keep a President from wielding king-like powers. He has friends in the judiciary, but they're not revolutionaries.
Tocky on 6/11/2024 at 17:43
Oh but they may well be revolutionaries. They may well cater to Trump out of fear of his popularity. Project 2025 may well be implemented now. Remember that we all thought out institutions sound until Trump lost and it was only because he lost that his shenanigans to keep power did not succeed. Now he has won. Now he doesn't have to hold back any craziness.
One thing I worry about, besides all that has been mentioned, is that the oil companies know the price of Americans conscience now. A dollar more at the pump will change enough votes for a Republican to win and allow them to get to drill anywhere anytime with no restrictions or safety considerations. Plus they make record profits while they hurt the economy enough to manipulate the vote. They own us now.
Sadly it was done at the cost of democracy in UKraine, possible further Russian expansion, and likely a South Korean invasion, which North Korea will expect Russia to back it up on. World War may be around the corner. I don't see Trump doing anything but aiding it out of his love of dictators and hatred of the press. If he sees any benefit to him he will do anything regardless of country. We saw that four years ago.
mxleader on 6/11/2024 at 19:12
Quote Posted by SD
Because we have to live with the consequences of what the United States does. They're already saying that Trump's tariffs will halve growth in the United Kingdom. Obviously they affect other countries too, but us more than most, since we made the oh-so-wise decision to turn our backs on our trading partners in Europe and go it alone.
In my manufacturing experience US tariffs won't always affect the UK or the EU because much of the product that is designed in the US is manufactured in Asia. I know there are already import duties from Asia to the UK and the EU but depending on where the product's final assembly is determines the import duties. In the cycling industry all you have to do to avoid import duties in the EU is to ship frames assmebled with parts minus wheel sets. In the US it's different because you have to detail where every single part is made and what percentage of the whole is assembled outside of China, then imported to the US. There are legal ways around a lot of things if you are creative enough. Of course direct imports from the UK to the US could definitely be more expensive. Either the cost gets passed on to consumer or it gets absorbed by UK manufacturers. Usually though costs get passed on to consumers in the end.
As far as the UK leaving the EU it sounded like a great idea while drinking at a pub, probably, but on paper it didn't make sense to most of the world. Keeping the UK from homogenizing with the rest of Europe by leaving the EU probably wasn't the best idea. But yeah, now you're stuck with it.
Vae on 6/11/2024 at 19:43
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
The Department of Justice and Jack Smith immediately end their cases against Donald Trump.
The DOJ cited their policy that presidents can't be prosecuted however it was assumed they would work up until the "last day".
"What's interesting here is that the DOJ is moving to end them even before he takes office, citing the longstanding DOJ policy that sitting presidents can't be prosecuted."
"And there were some thought that maybe special counsel Jack Smith was going to sprint through the finish line, was going to work up until the last day, force Trump to fire him, wait till a new Attorney General was appointed."
"But that does not appear to be the thinking inside the department. The thinking is that these cases can't go forward."
[video=youtube;bf--PyND5TU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf--PyND5TU[/video]
demagogue on 6/11/2024 at 20:20
Quote Posted by mxleader
In the cycling industry all you have to do to avoid import duties in the EU is to ship frames assmebled with parts minus wheel sets. In the US it's different because you have to detail where every single part is made and what percentage of the whole is assembled outside of China, then imported to the US. There are legal ways around a lot of things if you are creative enough. Of course direct imports from the UK to the US could definitely be more expensive. Either the cost gets passed on to consumer or it gets absorbed by UK manufacturers. Usually though costs get passed on to consumers in the end.
Interestingly the (
https://hrn.or.jp/eng/news/2024/10/25/shimano-report/) report that my organization just published was in part about how an import ban law would work (in the US & EU as the model for a similar law in Japan) against a forced labor case involving the Japanese bike company Shimano (forced labor of Napalese & Bangladesh workers in their supplier factory in Malaysia), which is very similar to the import ban on a group of Malaysian latex glove factories practicing forced labor a few years ago, for similar reasons... Massive boost in demand because of covid, over-extending in hiring and investment, and then massive labor rights violations when the demand evaporated.
Well of course under Trump there's going to be rampant serious human rights violations we can expect in the US, and we can expect the gov't is not going to care very much about addressing violations in other countries anymore. He wants to level these tariffs which would almost act like sanctions, but they're just blanket import restrictions, nothing to do with bad behavior. If anything Trump would encourage everything that China & Russia is doing for which they're being sanctioned since no doubt forced labor and shooting and arbitrarily arresting protestors and journalists are all great ideas from his perspective.
heywood on 6/11/2024 at 20:21
Quote Posted by Vae
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
Smith's cases were stuck and weren't going to progress in court before Trump takes office, so how was he supposed to 'sprint through the finish line'? SCOTUS succeeded in delaying these cases until after the election so that this could happen, and by doing so they avoided having to rule on these cases.
RippedPhreak on 6/11/2024 at 20:30
Ok but in all seriousness there are a few factors behind this:
1) You should understand that the US press and media are all liars. Those of you in other countries like Canada, UK, Japan...everything you hear from them is a lie. So when you hear that Trump is a rapist and incipient dictator it's all made up for clickbaiting. Americans know this, so if you're thunderstruck as to how Americans could vote for this slimy caricature of evil, well...it's a caricature you've been presented just to hype up fear and rage.
2) Americans are hurting financially, and Harris offered no solutions. Instead the media kept telling us the economy is great and wages are rising. Again, they are liars.
3) Abortion probably is not a concrete issue for most people when compared to the price of food and rent doubling. It's more of an abstract thing, like "Well, I guess it would be nice if my daughter had the option in case she has an accident before finishing college..." but at this point the worst case scenario is she drives to the next state where abortion is legal. Oh well.
4) Aside from black issues and abortion, the Harris campaign offered NOTHING to any other demographic group of voters. Obviously the Dems are going to pander to blacks, and abortion energizes young single women. But do you see the problem with this? Both of those groups were already firmly in the tank for Harris. If you spend all your time and money persuading the groups that already agree with you and were already voting for you, then you've wasted time and money. And, I would add, you don't really understand what a political campaign is even about.
Final summation: You can NOT make the voters poorer via your policies and expect them not to punish you for it. Ukraine, abortion, helping migrants, pointing and shrieking HITLER...whatever you try. None of it is going to matter if the voters see that their wallets shrank between 2019 and 2024. Democrat strategists should keep this top of mind at all times from now on.
Pyrian on 6/11/2024 at 20:57
Quote Posted by heywood
He has friends in the judiciary, but they're not revolutionaries.
I'm not seeing team "if the president does it, it's legal" being a counterweight to the next Trump administration. A lot of the pushback came from within the administration (and the military!), for example Mike Pence refusing Trump's orders to install him as dictator on the grounds that it was unconstitutional. That's why Mike Pence is gone and replaced by someone who's expressed willingness to break that law for Trump, and presumably any other. Vance said that if staff won't do what they're told, they need to be replaced - and that's the high road to dictatorship, as practiced in various fascist and "illiberal democracy" nations for at least 100 years. They're following a well-trod template, and it isn't ours.
