heywood on 7/10/2008 at 16:55
It's well known that negative campaigns turn off independents and young voters. Obama has always had the youth vote, and the independent vote has recently swung his way also. I think the McCain/Palin campaign has decided to make it as ugly as possible to suppress turnout and make this election about the base.
Like Scots, I think it's unwise for Obama to adopt the same tactics, lest he appear to be just another slimy politician. There's a difference between responding to attacks to set the record straight and counter-attacking. He should do the former but not the latter.
heywood on 7/10/2008 at 17:33
Quote Posted by Starrfall
What Obama is doing and what McCain is doing are not comparable.
They don't have to be. McCain only has to bait Obama into going negative enough to get people to tune out. In my state, we're getting their TV ads back to back: a McCain attack ad immediately followed by an Obama attack ad.
Starrfall on 7/10/2008 at 17:44
Except that's not going to work for McCain because what Obama is doing is not comparable to what McCain is doing.
(And because McCain's campaign has been so schizo and disturbing lately that the sentiment is going to start shifting to "oh fuck we can't let these psychopaths get into office." You don't suppress turnout by becoming someone who must be kept out of office at all costs.)
Obama currently has a national polling lead that is larger than any lead held by any candidate in 2004. It will probably contract before the election, because he's probably riding fairly high on McCain's utter uselessness when it comes to the economy, and that has the potential to fade in the next four weeks. (Also who knows what the debates will do.) But I don't think you're going to see a reduced turnout.
(And actually, if I were a libertarian I'd be rocking get-out-the-vote as hard as I could right now - they've really got a chance to make some gains in this election because there's going to be a lot of people who can't stomach McCain, but who also can't sign on to Obama's policies. I believe you're one of them?)
heywood on 7/10/2008 at 17:51
Do you think the people who get turned off elections because of negative campaigning care about your quibbling over the degree of negativity?
Starrfall on 7/10/2008 at 17:55
Do you think they're too dumb to notice the clear difference? McCain's campaign is probably praying that they are!
Trance on 7/10/2008 at 18:12
Quote Posted by Starrfall
(And because McCain's campaign has been so schizo and disturbing lately that the sentiment is going to start shifting to "oh fuck we can't let these psychopaths get into office." You don't suppress turnout by becoming someone who must be kept out of office at all costs.
Quite true. My parents just two weeks ago told me that they weren't voting at all because they didn't have any reason to do so; now after seeing the GOP's "pitbull" tactics they're signed up for their absentee ballots and voting for Obama. I have no reason to think others aren't doing the same.
heretic on 7/10/2008 at 18:35
Non-partisans being put off aside, no one should be too surprised if such negative campaigning works now as well as it has during every other election since say 1789.
The Mccain camp is tightening the gap according to several recent polls, and this is certainly not entirely due to Palin's mediocre performance during the VP debate.
I'm interested to see how the negative campaign issue will be handled on tonight's debate, as surely it will be brought up.
heywood on 7/10/2008 at 18:36
Quote Posted by Starrfall
(And actually, if I were a libertarian I'd be rocking get-out-the-vote as hard as I could right now - they've really got a chance to make some gains in this election because there's going to be a lot of people who can't stomach McCain, but who also can't sign on to Obama's policies. I believe you're one of them?)
Yes. My ballot is going to be a little strange this year. Libertarian for President, Democrat for House, Senate, and Governor, and Republican for State Legislature. I'm not really comfortable voting Libertarian though, because I don't like voting for people I wouldn't want to be elected. But I think the GOP needs to reform itself or die, and if voting Libertarian helps push that I'll do it.
Quote Posted by Starrfall
Do you think they're too dumb to notice the clear difference? McCain's campaign is probably praying that they are!
I brought it up because I'm hearing co-workers and family members say they're getting really sick of the election and don't want to follow it anymore.
And the ads from McCain I'm seeing on TV aren't as bad as the stuff Palin is saying on the stump. If all you knew of the campaign was from the TV ads, debates, and network news, you wouldn't see that much difference.
Maybe there's two thresholds here? The first defines how negative Obama can be before he starts turning voters that were on his side into apathetic non-voters. The second defines how negative McCain can be before he starts turning apathetic non-voters into anything but McCain voters.
