SubJeff on 21/2/2014 at 14:39
I can't believe the amount of craziness, like this, that still goes on in the world. Especially not in the 1st World because it's impossible to hide with current tech, the internet and media.
We're doomed as a race I think. I wouldn't blame aliens for coming and saying "you guys are a bunch of dicks and you don't deserve what you've got so zap zap zap we'll have it thanks".
Muzman on 21/2/2014 at 16:43
I dunno. Call me a giddy optimist, but while the specifics and the traditions are quite different it's a lot like Georgia as well.
In broad terms you can say empires never break up easily.
Has anyone heard from 242 lately btw?
LoLion on 22/2/2014 at 12:29
Quote:
Even if the East and West parts of the Ukraine could agree to an "amiable divorce", would Russia go for it?
This is a good question obviously, especially considering the implications that the split would have for other countries. Personally I think that if the Ukraine parted it could actually help with other longstanding issues. Perhaps USA/EU could agree to recognise Transnistria (nothing of value would be lost there even if the place became another Kaliningrad), South Osetia and Abkhazia (Sakashvili has been out of office for a while now and the new government of Georgia seems to be more open towards Russia) if the Russians agreed to the partition. After all the Crimea would go squarely into the Russian sphere of influence (if not into Russia itself) and Sevastopol with the Black Sea Fleet base would go with it, which would secure one of the major interests that Russians have in Ukraine.
Anyway according to the news Yanukovich already fled Kiev along with large part of the government and parliament members. New government is being formed and remaining members of parliament are trying to come up with a constitutional way to end Yanukovich´s presidency. The security forces are mostly in retreat while the crowds lynch lonely cops that they can get their hands on. In the western Ukraine the cops and soldiers basically surrendered to or joined with the protesters, on the other hand the Russians in the eastern Ukraine are already forming their own militias and say that they are ready to fight the “western fascists.” I guess that the division of the country could take place... but we will see.
demagogue on 22/2/2014 at 12:54
Doesn't sound amiable at all, and a war would just be an excuse for Russia and maybe NATO to intervene and muck things up more. Hopefully they can settle for a deal and just wait for new elections.
PigLick on 22/2/2014 at 14:34
Quote Posted by LoLion
according to the news
this is the problem right here.
faetal on 22/2/2014 at 15:55
Pig speaks the troot.
Muzman on 23/2/2014 at 08:23
Quote Posted by Ostriig
It's another geopolitical confrontation between the EU/NATO and Russia. More by proxy, this time, with either side relying on the specific financial and political interests of the ruling elites inside the country, and banking on regional popular support, rather than force of arms.
The Soviet Union fell and people got the impression that that was the end of it, and Russia's just another country now, no match for the united West, etc. Yeah, it's just another country. A very large and powerful one. The two decades that followed saw a lull in Russian influence around the world, but since Putin latest return to office, Moscow's been on the offense again and getting better at it, to the misfortune of its Eastern European neighbours, at least. Moscow didn't fall two decades ago, it just tripped.
I'm really hoping that, given the latest developments, the Obama administration reviews its lax policy in Eastern Europe and towards Russia in general. Cause in other cases Putin's been running circles around them, and the EU's made a complete mess of the Eastern Partnership.
The supreme irony to all this - to my eye, which has very little knowledge, really- is this very nationalistic and twitchy Russia of dema's friend (and plenty of others. Although it can't be universal), the Russia that needs to be "strong" in the face of Western meddling etc etc.... The West could not be happier with that attitude from a global economic perspective. War and strong man tactics are bad in the world, sure, and they don't want that. But that's exactly what NATO and the US expect. They're prepared for that.
The greatest threat to the geopolitical landscape Russia presents these days is as a confident, wealthy, productive, even friendly, don't-give-a-fuck Russia. A Russia everyone wants to do business with. A paranoid, nationalistic one has a much harder time being that today. So I have no doubt the West does its share of meddling to try and keep them down. But all that conspiratorial defensiveness and desire to meddle back is exactly the thing that's going to prevent the kind of "strength" the west fears most.
I think anyway.
But I'm just another westerner telling them what to do.
demagogue on 23/2/2014 at 09:10
So the (
www.nytimes.com/2014/02/23/world/europe/ukraine.html) latest news is indeed that "President Viktor F. Yanukovych fled Kiev, denouncing what he called a violent coup, as his nemesis, former Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko, was released from prison and Parliament found him unable to fulfill his duties." with his key soundbite being "I don't plan to leave the country. I don't plan to resign. I am a legitimately elected president. What is happening today, mostly, it is vandalism, banditism and a coup d'état."
Naturally it puts the West in an awkward position supporting what looks like shaping up to be a new government*, as they are always trying to promote democratic transitions of power, and Egypt again showed what happens when that culture hasn't set in and gets compromised, you get either strongman rule or one coup after another and a perpetual string of temporary governments, and is that really what everyone is protesting so passionately for? Not that that has to apply to Ukraine's case. I think even a new government would want a quick election to legitimate themselves (it was already scheduled). But one doesn't see the east half of the country just rolling over either...
*Edit: The argument that it's not exactly a coup is that the Parliament declared the President unable to rule by a 2/3 majority (300/450), so there's at least some constitutional grounds for the transition. It was at least done under some legal procedure. Well, you'd have to know their constitution & jurisprudence to know how legal it was, but politically it's what happened.
Tony_Tarantula on 23/2/2014 at 13:19
Some of my favorite columnists have been covering this not just in the past few weeks, but since November as they watched the situation brew.
One of the better writeups I've seen so far:
The significance of Ukraine is far beyond what the mainstream press has dared to even portray. This is how Empires, Nations, and City States eventually collapse. There have been protesters gone missing. Some have resurfaced only with stories of being tortured. Some politicians have tried to distance themselves from President Viktor Yanukovich realizing this guy is dangerous and will not leave office. Yanukovich in turn came out and threaten to destroy them. In effect, there is no direct translation for what he said, it is like using a steam roller and flattening them into the road.
The riot police are most likely NOT even Ukrainian - they are NOT the local police. No one actually knows where these thugs came from, but they appear to be mercenaries perhaps from Russia. The local police are now starting to side with the people outside of Kiev and realize they are not the thugs involved suppressing the people of Ukraine.
Yeltsin-081991-Coup
There is historically always a serious problem whenever government tries to use police and troops against the people. Yeltsin became famous for standing on the tanks and telling the army not to shoot their own people. This is a very critical lesson from history. The famous Nika Revolt of 532AD in Constantinople saw the precise same pattern. The local police and military troops were not defending government. The Emperor called in a legion stationed outside the city that were not native to that region. That eliminated the serious problem of not killing their neighbors and some 30,000 protesters were slaughtered.
There are two directions historically that unfold in this process and we need to pay close attention to Ukraine for here is the fate of Europe and the United States in a petri dish. The world economy crashes always from the peripheral regions and it spreads back to the core. Thus, we are seeing this patter in Ukraine and rising civil unrest in Europe. This trend will eventually hit the USA starting as early as 2016.
The second trend is when a nation is moving into revolutionary collapse internally. Here we find the division of loyalties emerges. The Ukrainian protesters need the strength and might of the police against the mercenaries. If they can gather the support of the police and military against Yanukovich, then they stand a chance to take their country to real freedom.
There is a significant difference between the “free economy” in Russia v that in Kiev and what is truly at stake here. In Moscow, the big restaurants ONLY owned by Oligarchs. In Kiev, you have small stores are independent people with their own livelihoods. The Communist State of Russia where government-owned everything has merely been replaced with Oligarchs. There is no real small entrepreneurship to speak of. You cannot compete against the Oligarchs."
Tony_Tarantula on 23/2/2014 at 13:32
Quote Posted by Muzman
The greatest threat to the geopolitical landscape Russia presents these days is as a confident, wealthy, productive, even friendly, don't-give-a-fuck Russia. A Russia everyone wants to do business with. A paranoid, nationalistic one has a much harder time being that today.
The same could be said about the United States. Others I know try to avoid travel through America, I find returning to the U.S. after travel to be a rather unpleasant experience due to the extreme paranoia and incompetence that is pervasive among all the agencies you'll interact with traveling into, out of, or through the United States. In Switzerland(for example) going through customs and onto further travel is as simple as walking through the green aisle marked "nothing to declare" and then onto your train platform. Security at the airport is simple and the personnel there are relaxed and friendly (though noticeably observant and aware). In the U.S. the personnel are paranoid, hostile, have no apparent interest in making sure those systems run efficiently, and the level of patronizing talking down we do is unbelievable (Illustrated cartoons with smiling pieces of baggage, signs warning you that you could injure yourself by stepping off an escalator wrong, etc).
Back on the main topic.....for all the hype and spin in the media about how this is Russia vs. the US make no mistake. Other governments around the world are clenching their sphincters hard right now. Despite all the reports at agitation the fact of the matter is that agitation can not succeed as long as people are fat, happy, and comfortable. It's only after people are having a hard time putting food on the plate that those movements gain significant traction and pose a threat to stability.
Things in other "first world" nations aren't as well off economically as people would have you believe....cost of living is rising, wages are stagnant, and unemployment is through the roof (in some European nations 2 out of every 3 youth can not find a job). Wait until the next major economic crash occurs, which a lot of well reputed economists(and those who are less well known but have a good track record with their forecasts) are saying that it will occur soon. You can expect significant unrest in first world nations or even in America.....and this time the countries involved will be too large for the problem to be handled with foreign mercenaries.
