Javert4186 on 8/11/2006 at 02:03
Quote Posted by TheGreatGodPan
Unless you are actually changing how or whether other people vote (and how many do this?) you CAN assume the other votes are (or are not, since most don't vote) as they would be regardless of your action.
Are what, independent? That was not what I meant by "independent". What matters is who has the majority, meaning the aggregation of votes, not any single vote, is what matters. Thus for a vote to make one side have the majority, it depends on the existence of the other votes being there. It's the same mistake as saying "he scored the winning run" as if the last run is more important than any that came before it (without which, the last run would not be "winning").
TheGreatGodPan on 8/11/2006 at 20:52
Quote Posted by Javert4186
Are what, independent? That was not what I meant by "independent". What matters is who has the majority, meaning the aggregation of votes, not any single vote, is what matters. Thus for a vote to make one side have the majority, it depends on the existence of the other votes being there. It's the same mistake as saying "he scored the winning run" as if the last run is more important than any that came before it (without which, the last run would not be "winning").
If there is a difference of one, any vote on the winning side can be considered the "winning vote". As long as it is not the case that the difference is one vote, the marginal value of your vote for the election is nothing.
mopgoblin: Alright, everybody who changed their mind about voting because of what I wrote, raise your hands. Nobody? Ok, let's move on.
Regarding minor parties becoming serious contenders, that doesn't sound much more likely than an election won by one vote. We had the change from feds vs. anti-feds to feds vs. dem-reps followed by the "era of good feelings" and then dems vs. whigs, the civil war and dems vs reps since, with a third party briefly getting second place when Teddy split the rep ticket as a bull-moose, but since then there does not seem to be any evidence of a third party acting as anything but a spoiler to whichever major party gets second. Perhaps you want a minor stick around as a spoiler (not sure why) and there is a requirement that they need a certain amount of votes to stay on ballots. How likely are they to be within one vote of that amount? Perhaps you care less about the official result but more about the impact on others when they hear about how many votes a candidate got. Usually when I hear those, they are rounded by a significant amount. So your vote will still probably have no impact.
pavlovscat on 10/11/2006 at 01:22
Quote Posted by TTK12G3
Just let RBJ and pavlovscat fight it out until one side decides to unsubscribe to the thread. Until then, you should probably take this opportunity to learn how grown-ups insult each other and why.
No, I didn't give up & bow to RBJ's superior position. I was forcefully prevented from further foolishness by a sojourn in the hospital due to a bout of major depression brought on by a medication change. I regret missing out on all the fun, but I had other things to do. I know...excuses, excuses.
RBJ: Never argue with a crazy woman! You might send her over the edge. ;) Just kidding! :p
