nickie on 4/12/2016 at 19:44
Ooops. Apparently not quite as brilliant, then, as he says he is.
In other news, I'm delighted to say that Austria has rejected the far right option for president. I find this lessens my depression a little.
PigLick on 5/12/2016 at 05:04
"encouraging the pugilistic personality that showed itself all the way back in second grade, when Trump punched his music teacher."
haha what a lovely person he is.
Tony_Tarantula on 5/12/2016 at 21:00
Quote Posted by SD
I'll book your next vacation on an airline where 98.8% of airplanes manage to make it to their destination and only 1.2% crash, shall I.
Yet a hitter who only missed 1.2% of pitches would be in the NBA hall of fame within his first few seasons.
You're trying to compare apples to oranges. Let's compare apples to apples: (
http://www.businessrevieweurope.eu/finance/390/Why-do-up-to-90-of-Mergers-and-Acquisitions-Fail)
What this article is telling you:
At least 70% of the time experienced executives fail to manage existing businesses. Starting up a new venture is exponentially more difficult.
(
http://tech.co/startup-failure-rates-industry-2016-01)
Inline Image:
http://8txb81fmsytmpvkp2gk1z8y2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-11-at-9.07.35-PM.pngSo basically, if you're business in real estate still exists four years later you're not doing badly compared to most startups. Those numbers seem low to me. For example I am currently in a class taught by one of the top rated finance professors in America who is an active VC investor. He cites that a 9/10 failure rate is typical for VC investments.
Short version: averaged across industries, Trump would need to have three businesses continue operating in order to be ahead of the average. Four bankruptcies out of 26 is exceptional.
That said if you look at his business resume there's a pretty consistent trend. Trump's business do amazingly well when he's operating in an area where premium branding and "prestige" count. His golf courses, casinos, real estate, hotels all had a great run because that kind of branding matters there as did some of his other name license deals to a lesser extent. When you're talking about an area where a prestigious brand name counts for jack shit(Trump Airlines) his businesses bomb.
That said
Tony_Tarantula on 5/12/2016 at 22:25
Quote Posted by SD
I'll book your next vacation on an airline where 98.8% of airplanes manage to make it to their destination and only 1.2% crash, shall I.
Yet a hitter who only missed 1.2% of pitches would be in the NBA hall of fame within his first few seasons.
You're trying to compare apples to oranges. Let's compare apples to apples: (
http://www.businessrevieweurope.eu/finance/390/Why-do-up-to-90-of-Mergers-and-Acquisitions-Fail)
What this article is telling you:
At least 70% of the time experienced executives fail to manage existing businesses. Starting up a new venture is exponentially more difficult.
(
http://tech.co/startup-failure-rates-industry-2016-01)
Inline Image:
http://8txb81fmsytmpvkp2gk1z8y2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Screen-Shot-2016-01-11-at-9.07.35-PM.pngSo basically, if you're business in real estate still exists four years later you're not doing badly compared to most startups. Those numbers seem low to me. For example I am currently in a class taught by one of the top rated finance professors in America who is an active VC investor. He cites that a 9/10 failure rate is typical for VC investments. I suspect that the reason for the disparity is that four years is too short a time horizon for that analysis to be representative.
Short version: averaged across industries, Trump would need to have three businesses continue operating in order to be ahead of the average. Four bankruptcies out of 26 is exceptional.
That said if you look at his business resume there's a pretty consistent trend. Trump's business do amazingly well when he's operating in an area where premium branding and "prestige" count. His golf courses, casinos, real estate, hotels all had a great run because that kind of branding matters there as did some of his other name license deals to a lesser extent. When you're talking about an area where a prestigious brand name counts for jack shit(Trump Airlines) his businesses bomb.
hopper on 6/12/2016 at 18:48
No, it doesn't, as well it shouldn't, since that statement is completely meaningless. Frankly, by now you should have learned to read your articles before linking them as proof of anything you say. The articles only concerns itself with mergers and acquisitions. Helpfully, even the title states as much. Perhaps you should at least have read that.
What it does say is that 70-90% of mergers and acquisitions fail. A failed merger does not equal failed businesses. Prime example: The DamlerChrysler merger, which was a huge failure, yet both companies remain in existence today (albeit Chrysler now belongs to Fiat).
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
So basically, if you're business in real estate still exists four years later you're not doing badly compared to most startups. Those numbers seem low to me. For example I am currently in a class taught by one of the top rated finance professors in America who is an active VC investor. He cites that a 9/10 failure rate is typical for VC investments. I suspect that the reason for the disparity is that four years is too short a time horizon for that analysis to be representative.
Messy logic here. First of all, the statistic shows that real estate is the easiest of all industries surveyed to start a new business in, as 58% are still in operation after four years, which is the highest success rate in the chart. If they failed more often, those numbers would be lower, not higher. You're comparing success rates in different industries with the failure rate of VC startups. How's that for apples and oranges?
Secondly, it's almost a matter of definition that VC startups have lower success rates than startups in general. That's why VC is a thing in the first place: Business startups with great (or, in most cases, not great) ideas in need of financing, but no proven track record of actually generating profit. Venture capitalists come in where financing by other means (i.e., bank loans) is out of the question. They also buy shares in the companies they invest in, while banks typically do not own stocks, but offer financing at a fixed interest rate. In short, VC startups are high-risk propositions that potentially offer higher rewards than your typical startup.
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
Trump's casinos, real estate, hotels all had a great run
HAHAHA GOOD ONE oh wait wtf you're serious :o
Assuming accumulating a debt of 3,4 BILLION dollars in ten years is great, then I suppose he had a great run with those casinos.
TL;DR: FFS, T_T, L2R.
faetal on 6/12/2016 at 19:13
How many of those 70% had upwards of $100m to fall back on?
You're comparing apples with orchards.
Pyrian on 6/12/2016 at 21:42
The thing I keep coming back to is the lack of data. We don't know if he's wildly successful or hanging on by a thread in a mountain of foreign debt. We don't know that because he refuses to release tax returns, etc.. And this is the idea that his supporters hang their optimism on! A business success story that he flatly refuses to confirm.
Sans hard data, these weird invented stand-ins are just pissing in the breeze. If he is as successful as he claims, he can prove it, and he refuses to.
Tony_Tarantula on 7/12/2016 at 03:08
Quote Posted by faetal
How many of those 70% had upwards of $100m to fall back on?
You're comparing apples with orchards.
Given that 100m is a deal so small that most reputable banks won't even look at it, I'd wager most.
Quote:
Admitting the truth that Donald Trump is a complete winner makes me so mad!...
By the way, Tony the Tarantula, I saw you creeping around around the other day...
Nope. Not a "complete winner". If you look at what he did well and what he did poorly at it's a very different story. WashPo(not exactly a pro-Trump source) has some good points here.
(
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/29/the-myth-and-the-reality-of-donald-trumps-business-empire/?utm_term=.e07efec2c9a4)
