SubJeff on 30/4/2009 at 01:27
Quote Posted by Scots Taffer
but who's to say Swine Flu wasn't already out there and airborne and people had it before this got noticed?
Transmission appears more consistent and the illness more virulent. If this exact strain was out there (certainly in this country) we'd very likely have detected an increase in hospital admissions for severe flu progressing to pneumonia and a higher rate of acute respiratory distress syndrome.
Having said that the new figure of 7 dead does cast doubt on those reports of virulence anyway... so you could be right. In fact the WHO states similar in their new guidance.
gunsmoke on 30/4/2009 at 01:28
This is the most yawn inducing 'news' ever. Really. A bunch of people got a bad cold. Toughen up.
Stitch on 30/4/2009 at 03:47
The fear isn't so much what's happened as what could happen. I'll agree there's no need to panic and stockpile canned goods or anything but pulling a HO HUM MORE LIKE WHINE FLU betrays no small amount of ignorance.
jtr7 on 30/4/2009 at 05:47
All the dumbasses out there that think one gets the Swine Flu from eating pork have now led to the decision to stop calling it Swine Flu and start using "H1N1 flu".
Quote Posted by dethtoll
As much as GenGaming likes to poke fun at ThiefGen (and as much as ThiefGen deserves it), Fringe is spot the fuck on.
Hey, at least some of us remember why TTLG was created.;)
june gloom on 30/4/2009 at 07:14
Yeah, System Shock. ;)
Starrfall on 30/4/2009 at 15:45
Quote Posted by Subjective Effect
Transmission appears more consistent and the illness more virulent. If this exact strain was out there (certainly in this country) we'd very likely have detected an increase in hospital admissions for severe flu progressing to pneumonia and a higher rate of acute respiratory distress syndrome.
Would hospitals really have latched on to it being swine flu though? I mean we're just coming out of flu season, and because this story is only recently getting legs it seems that if someone (particularly someone who's already in one of the flu risk groups) showed up with severe flu symptoms there'd be at least a short time period when it was all getting blamed on the regular flu.
I mean I certainly don't know how careful they are about checking the strain but in past years when I've gone in with flu symptoms they've said "yep, it's the flu, here's some anti-virals, get some nyquil, drink fluids, get out" but didn't take any samples or do any blood work or anything, so how would they know what kind of flu it was unless I came back dead or dying and they actually checked it out?
Along similar lines it also seems that if it's not quite as nasty as some people worry, you'd have a lot of cases where people got it but never went to the doctor because it never got bad enough to do so. I got some sort of shitty shitty flu in February but never went to a doctor (because I knew all they'd say was "yep it's the flu, here's some anti-virals (which I didn't want), get some nyquil, drink fluids, get out"), so it could have been Hawaiian Polar Bear flu for all I know.
This is all a long way of wondering how good we really are at detecting new diseases when the new disease is quite similar to an existing one and no one is really on the lookout for the new disease yet.
SubJeff on 30/4/2009 at 19:02
It would only be detected if there was an appreciable enough extra load of patients with severe flu coming in because, as you rightly point out, we don't routinely do virology on flu sufferers unless something else is up. I cannot find any specific information about the pathophysiology of this particular strain and it's entirely possible, likely even, that most illnesses will be self limiting and none progressive. And if that is the case we would completely miss it. I'm sure I'd know by now if it was likely to progress to a life-threatening respiratory disorder as we're getting updates on plans for management and so on everyday.
Scots Taffer on 1/5/2009 at 03:55
More pig flu origin theories and hilarity attached.
Nicker on 1/5/2009 at 06:27
My understanding was that the high death rate in 1918 was from secondary (opportunistic) bacterial infections, rather than the flu itself.
We sure love a fresh villain to obsess over. We lose our perspective on the real and proven threats while we overreact to novel and relatively minor ones.
Every day, thousands of people die from smoking, driving cars, eating too much or too little; a whole variety of known and proven killers. But along comes a flu bug and they start shutting down entire countries.
I'm not qualified to offer a prognosis but I don't think H1N1 is a world killer, ala The Stand... (excuse me, just had a sneezing fit). It’s a flu. Some people won’t get it, some will have some sniffles or a stomach ache, some will be down for a week and a few may die. Dose the whole country with Tamiflu and many will come down with equally bad reactions, including death!
