lowenz on 3/10/2022 at 12:20
It's a feature of being similar to an adversarial AI system :O
Pyrian on 4/10/2022 at 21:21
The frontline northeast of Kherson has collapsed. Russians are in full retreat back towards Kherson to avoid being encircled.
Azaran on 4/10/2022 at 21:42
I was trying to think of a good analogy for Putin right now.
Maybe an idiot who whacks a giant hornet's nest just for kicks, then after getting massively swarmed and stung, instead of running, keeps coming back for more and more. I mean, he manages to kill a few here and there, but the greater scheme and sequence never changes
Briareos H on 5/10/2022 at 10:36
I was thinking of the head school bully that keeps sending his dim-witted minions to try to beat up a bunch of kids who rejected him earlier, even though the underlings always come back more and more black-eyed with every try.
heywood on 5/10/2022 at 14:03
Cornered animal looking for his escape route?
The Kremlin understands now they're not going to win this war as long as Ukraine continues to be supplied arms. After the blitzkrieg failed, they thought they could win a protracted war by wearing Ukraine down, but the opposite is happening. Ukraine is better supplied at this point, and the Ukrainian army is still gaining experience and effectiveness, while the Russian army is starting to lean on conscripts.
They must be hoping to find a way out of the war where they can say it was a noble cause, NATO was the aggressor and they were just protecting their fellow Russians. The nazi idea didn't work, the zionism idea is not going to work. They have to reframe the conflict so it's not about Russia invading Ukraine anymore, it's about the imperialist US expanding its military alliance up to their front door, and mistreating ethnic Russia populations. It's getting back to the old narrative that had a lot of traction around the world before they invaded.
It might be what's behind the nuke threats and Nordstream explosions, which are possibly attempts to get the media looking at the conflict as US vs. Russia instead of Russia vs. Ukraine. If so, the next step would be some asymmetric attack to goad the US and distract attention from Ukraine. Like a high profile cyber attack perhaps.
lowenz on 5/10/2022 at 19:36
There's ONLY ONE (bad) escape route to rise the stakes again and try to win and it's a nuclear detonation (with several thousands of deaths)
heywood on 5/10/2022 at 20:24
I don't think nukes are a credible threat.
They can win this war over the long term if the West stops supporting Ukraine militarily. They might have to retreat back into Crimea and Russia temporarily, but they can build up again and take another crack in a couple years. They would like to paint the US as the imperialist aggressor in this conflict. If they can appeal to the isolationists here in the US and get the arms shipments stopped, and they can appeal to enough countries to break the sanctions, then they can be strong again. Putin has traditionally taken the long view.
Pyrian on 5/10/2022 at 20:38
Right, and all of that is basically dependent on Ukraine not joining NATO. I'm a bit surprised Putin isn't offering territorial concessions for neutrality at this point.
Going back a couple posts, losing to U.S./NATO would be a lot more palatable to the Russian electorate than losing to Ukraine, so yeah, I expect that angle will be pushed.
lowenz on 5/10/2022 at 21:38
Quote Posted by heywood
I don't think nukes are a credible threat.
They can win this war over the long term if the West stops supporting Ukraine militarily. They might have to retreat back into Crimea and Russia temporarily, but they can build up again and take another crack in a couple years. They would like to paint the US as the imperialist aggressor in this conflict. If they can appeal to the isolationists here in the US and get the arms shipments stopped, and they can appeal to enough countries to break the sanctions, then they can be strong again. Putin has traditionally taken the long view.
Sanctions will hit REALLY hard on Russia economics in 2 years (sanctions will NEVER be lifted in the same manner Putin will NEVER declare a defeat). And so we're back again: "existential threat" -> nuclear option