demagogue on 21/9/2022 at 07:00
Quote Posted by Starker
There's also this short one-off lecture that touches a lot of the same themes:
He also wrote (
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/22/magazine/ruscism-ukraine-russia-war.html) this great article on the term Ruscism or Rascism (fascism with an "Rus" up front). I like when people can point out how language or jokes and word play convey something about a culture or an event and how people are thinking about it. It usually offers a much better insight into what's happening than just what you read in a newspaper.
I remember really liking that article when it came out, and I didn't realize it was this guy until he mentioned the article in like Class 4.
lowenz on 21/9/2022 at 07:15
[video=youtube;VVOWpSuFtIc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVOWpSuFtIc&t=314s&ab_channel=SkyNews[/video]
lowenz on 21/9/2022 at 07:18
The question is: where the nukes will fall first? :p
'cause of course he WANTS to use them, he's only expecting some stupid excuses (like referendums/"people" will "not respected")
michael a on 21/9/2022 at 08:50
I guess, this announcement of "partial mobilization" doesn't change much - the hidden mobilization in RusFed is already underway, so it just would be more or less the same. I expected this from the february.
It really feels like more of act of despair (since countries in former RusFed zone of interests are falling under influence of China, European Union, and USA - and the invasion only speeds up this process, the Central Asian countries and Armenian crisis being the most prominent) and the second-to-last (till nuclear blackmail) way to put political-military pressure - not only on Ukraine, but also on Ukraine's western allies - and first of all, European Union. If Ukraine, EU, USA will endure, it could possibly finish Putin's regime. If not, it could result in truly bleak days to all three entities.
lowenz on 21/9/2022 at 08:53
Mobilization is not the problem, referendums for the annexation are the problem: novorossija+donbas(s) become russian -> threat to Russian Federation -> nuclear weapons use allowed
michael a on 21/9/2022 at 08:59
Quote Posted by lowenz
Mobilization is not the problem, referendums for the annexation are the problem: novorossija+donbas(s) become russian -> threat to Russian Federation -> nuclear weapons use allowed
It really depends on EU and USA positions and what they will do. They also have nukes. And I guess, Putin won't start nuke exchange should he know that West also can use them. It's hard to give any advice, but I think nukes are more of psychological weapon that neither side would want to use in practice. Perhaps, it's better not to fear Putin. Since fear is his only actual weapon.
nemyax on 21/9/2022 at 09:00
Quote Posted by lowenz
novorossija+donbas(s) become russian -> threat to Russian Federation -> nuclear weapons use allowed
That's a lot of hot air. Ukraine bombed military facilities in Crimea, and the Kremlin swallowed. Not only did it swallow, but it also moved aircraft and subs to mainland Russia out of harm's way.
lowenz on 21/9/2022 at 09:20
Bombing is not sending troups to "reconquer". Bombing is just to sabotage infrastructures of the supply line. It has nothing to do with "territorial integrity" (borders line movement). Sending troups and establish control - not just disrupt military operations - is a treat to "territorial integrity".
lowenz on 21/9/2022 at 09:26
Quote Posted by michael a
It really depends on EU and USA positions and what they will do. They also have nukes. And I guess, Putin won't start nuke exchange should he know that West also can use them. It's hard to give any advice, but I think nukes are more of psychological weapon that neither side would want to use in practice. Perhaps, it's better not to fear Putin.
Since fear is his only actual weapon.In a fantasy world :D
In the real world tactical small (10-50 kilotons, like the ones used in WWII ) nukes are for battles, and not-so small nukes (over 100 Kilotons to 1 Megatons) are for total destruction. Red Army can deploy 800 Kilotons nukes with no particular problem.
No need to go over 1 Megaton (but it's still possible).
(
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60664169)
US intelligence say Russia has a theory called "escalate to de-escalate" if it is in a conflict with Nato.
This involves doing something dramatic - such as using a tactical weapon on the battlefield, or as a demonstration somewhere - or threatening to do so.
The idea is to frighten the other side into backing down.
The concern is that if Putin feels cornered and that his strategy in Ukraine is failing, he could use tactical nuclear weapons as a "game changer", to break a stalemate or avoid defeat.Big nukes are NOT for Ukraine battles, but for us in the West (here in Italy we know already our targets - NATO+US bases and military airports)
michael a on 21/9/2022 at 09:36
Quote:
The concern is that if Putin feels cornered and that his strategy in Ukraine is failing, he could use tactical nuclear weapons as a "game changer", to break a stalemate or avoid defeat.
That's why not fear. :D If Pu understands that he also could be bombed with nukes, he would think twice. But I really think it's more of a political leverage and psycho weapon than anything else.
