lowenz on 11/3/2022 at 22:02
72 hours is logistically impossible with an instant surrender too :|
Your hopes are too high, he will never stop.
Cipheron on 11/3/2022 at 22:10
Quote Posted by lowenz
72 hours is
logistically impossible with an instant surrender too :|
Your hopes are too high, he will never stop.
I'm not sure what you mean by "hopes" there. I was just outlining Putin's likely thought process behind the invasion. I never said he would stop. What I said was that he'd hope to quickly declare victory over Ukraine, then use that to pressure other smaller nations to fall in line. That could definitely *include* other invasions, but bullying is always more effective and cheaper. Ukraine was to be the example for the rest of them. Which backfired.
Basically they hoped to quickly seize the capital. That's not the whole country. You only need to take the airports, government buildings and TV stations, and you can plausibly say you "won" and control the nation and have your puppet government immediately declare themselves as the legitimate government. This is do-able to declare "victory" within 72 hours, and you then do most of the war as a "mop-up operation" while propaganda from the new puppet Ukrainian government to drown out any information from the remnants of the old government.
But they screwed up because they didn't manage to take and hold Antonov Airport in Hostomel on the morning of Feb 24 thus couldn't get supply and fresh reinforcements in by air. That was critical to quickly capturing key facilities in Kyiv and declaring a quick victory.
So I said these things backfired for Putin's plan. But at no point did I say he'd *stop* because his plan didn't work. Right now he's not working from any playbook so we can't see what the endgame is. Putin doesn't even know. This is getting to the point of the Street Fighter movie and Putin is M. Bison. He'll threaten take the whole world down with him if it extends his survival.
Pyrian on 12/3/2022 at 00:01
The historical parallel that crosses my mind right now is Stalingrad. A lot of Russia's forces are getting inadequate supplies, if any. The sensible thing to do would be to fall back and establish a defensible front line. But Putin won't allow that (and the mud ain't helpin'). The "big convoy" is dispersing into the countryside. People are positing some plan to encircle Kyiv, and that's certainly on Russia's mind. And there's the promise of getting some relief from Belarus. But I suspect what they're actually doing right now is looking for food.
lowenz on 12/3/2022 at 00:06
Hopes about "reading" Putin's plans/intentions and deduce "backfired, bitch!" :D
Ukrainians and russians have fought for 8 years, Putin's so stupid to think he could just walk in Kiev/Kyiv?
He's preparing something more destructive and all you see now is just the prelude (demagogue's theory is good)
demagogue on 12/3/2022 at 00:49
Leave it to the demagogues to know how to read the other demagogues. =L
He's backed into a corner without an easy way out.
In that sense, the idea that things didn't go as planned and he didn't get his quick victory doesn't necessarily bode well.
If it is like history, then he still has sheer numerical superiority in the long run and every incentive to keep squeezing his own resources until they do they job, which sounds awful for everybody involved.
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Edit: Interesting blog post. I don't want to be too US-centric, but I think what it's talking about may be relevant to right-wing movements in every country.
Source: (
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/putins-challenge-to-the-american) https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/putins-challenge-to-the-american
It's behind a paywall, but the text is below anyway.
(Also @lowenz, this is how you double-post. ;) )
Quote Posted by Andrew Sullivan
Putin's Russia, like Orban's Hungary, appealed to many post-liberal conservatives in the West for obvious reasons. Part of it was the shamelessness of the strongmen's ethnically-homogeneous nationalism, compared with what was seen as the simpering, multicultural globalism of EU types; part was hatred of Obama, who was always deemed weak in contrast with, er, anyone; and part was a more amorphous but nonetheless profound view of Putin and Orban as cultural traditionalists, standing up to Western decadence, as it staggers into its Drag Queen Story Hour hellscape. For besieged social conservatives and Christianists in America, Putin loomed like some phantasm of strange hope. Steve Bannon summed it up: “Putin ain't woke. He's anti-woke.” Congressman Madison Cawthorn took it further: “Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt, and it is incredibly evil, and it has been pushing woke ideologies.” That plucky little Zelensky, speaking live to the British House of Commons as bombs rained down on his country's cities? An “incredibly evil” “thug.” Our old friend Dinesh D'Souza, in his usual temperate style, sees the Democrats as posing “a far greater threat to our freedom and safety than Putin.” And Bannon is still urging his minions to give “zero dollars to Ukraine,” even as the corpses of children lie on the streets. There's an alt-right edginess to this moral perversity.
And over the years, this drumbeat of love for the Russian dictator shifted the views of many grassroots Republicans. In the wake of Trump's personal infatuation with Putin, the murderer's favorability among Republicans jumped from 10 percent in 2014 to 37 percent by December 2016. Until as recently as January this year, “62 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents considered Vladimir Putin a stronger leader than Joe Biden.” That's the primrose path down which the GOP led its supporters — seeing Putin as a more legitimate president than Biden.
The last two weeks, to put it mildly, have pummeled this narrative. It's happened in a couple of ways. The first is that there really is no legitimate defense — even at CPAC, the fetid armpit of the Trump right — of sending troops and tanks into a neighboring country to teach it a lesson in submission to Mother Russia. Putin didn't even use his “little green men” to deny accountability this time. If you're Bannon, you can still try and wing it, but the sheer sight of bombed hospitals, murdered children, homeless seniors, and mortar explosions in residential neighborhoods tends to shape public opinion overnight.
Not even Tucker Carlson has been able to muster up enough shrill bullshit on that one — which is why his show this week has been a hathos-filled, must-watch spectacle, trying recently to advance Russian propaganda about alleged US-funded “bioweapons” in Ukraine. Was Fauci behind it all? Stay tuned! Yes, you can still make a credible and legitimate argument that the West mishandled Russia in the recent past, and bears some responsibility for the mess. Listen to Mearsheimer for that case. But all of that is now simply blasted away by the facts and visuals of a sudden, brutal, unprovoked invasion, justified by a deranged rant about Russian imperial destiny.
Secondly, and perhaps most important, Putin is failing. He looks weak. The visual of a vast, stalled, vulnerable convoy of trucks on its way — or not — to Kyiv is now a metaphor for Putin's presidency. The world is currently mocking the decrepitude and amateurishness of the Russian military. We look set for a long bloody struggle to gain some kind of control over Ukraine, followed by an even longer and bloodier insurgency. This “canny” and “savvy” mastermind appears to have sent an unprepared, ill-equipped, misinformed, over-extended army into a massive country it cannot even begin to control let alone occupy. Not exactly “genius.”
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Edit: Triple post!
Inline Image:
https://i.ibb.co/5Wv37Qj/275476319-502618441229298-6846254629489449807-n.jpg
Starker on 12/3/2022 at 18:10
UK comedian Jonathan Pie talks about Putin's aggression from the UK perspective:
[video=youtube;YAblAQENQhE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAblAQENQhE[/video]
Starker on 12/3/2022 at 19:30
Quote:
(
https://twitter.com/LauraWalkerKC/status/1502360905262280707)
The Fifth Service — or, as it's officially named, the Operational Information and International Relations Service — oversees the FSB's communications with foreign partners, including with U.S. government agencies.
It's also home to the infamous Department of Operational Information (DOI), which handles the FSB's foreign intelligence work.
After the “color revolutions” ousted a number of pro-Kremlin leaders in the post-Soviet space in the early 2000s, this bureau was given the new task of doing everything in its power to keep these countries in Russia's “sphere of influence.”
It was the Fifth Service that was responsible for providing Vladimir Putin with information about political developments in Ukraine in the leadup to the invasion.
And after two weeks of war, it now appears that Putin has finally realized that he was misled: afraid of angering the Russian leader, the Fifth Service simply told him what he wanted to hear.
Looks like Putin might have been better served getting his intelligence from the shoddy remake of
The Italian Job:
[video=youtube;6VWGxUHZBqo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VWGxUHZBqo[/video]
lowenz on 12/3/2022 at 19:30
Not only London, here in Italy we got plenty of russian oligarchs villas and yachts. And I mean A LOT.
Just Melnichenko's one seized today is worth 500 millions euros and it's merely a toy.
Imagine how much is invested in weapons.....
[video=youtube;YAblAQENQhE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAblAQENQhE[/video]
He's simply right.
Starker on 12/3/2022 at 19:58
Quote Posted by lowenz
Imagine how much is invested in weapons.....
Imagine how much is not invested in weapons. How much necessary equipment is sold off. How many inspections are stamped as passed for aging and non-functional equipment.