faetal on 10/3/2022 at 14:36
Quote Posted by rachel
Goddammit, merge your fucking posts, dude.
Seconded.
Dia on 10/3/2022 at 15:34
Quote Posted by faetal
Seconded.
Thirded.
lowenz on 10/3/2022 at 15:59
Fourthed (.....)
Just remember to not use western "geopolitical" approach to the Russia-Ukraine question or to Russia sanction-driven cornering.
Pyrian on 10/3/2022 at 21:23
I've re-read your last four posts, lowenz, and frankly I have very little idea of what you mean by any of them.
Cipheron on 10/3/2022 at 23:15
I'm watching an interview with Steven Colbert's Late Show and one of the US's Russian ambassador from the Obama days.
This has got me thinking there are very few endgames here for Russia to extricate themselves from the mess. One possible endgame would be a coup or assassination of Putin, then whoever takes over sues for peace and normalization of foreign relations. It's quite possible, it depends on how expendable Putin himself is to his handlers.
nemyax on 10/3/2022 at 23:51
Quote Posted by Cipheron
It's quite possible, it depends on how expendable Putin himself is to his handlers.
He's completely expendable by now, but surrounded by abject cowards - the result of years' worth of artificial selection.
lowenz on 11/3/2022 at 00:32
Quote Posted by Pyrian
I've re-read your last four posts, lowenz, and frankly I have very little idea of what you mean by
any of them.
Lavrov himself today has said that the main issue is not even "NATO bases", is *ANY* kind of military organisation present on Ucraine soil going beyond the simple police (that Russia is very happy to provide, like many other things) West or non-West related.
And our sanctions meant to "destroy" Russia (financial default) are not even considered an issue, just an unfortunate contingency.
demagogue on 11/3/2022 at 12:28
There's another thing I've been noticing that was Cold War-esque I thought. It's just a vibe right now, and maybe hard to perfectly articulate, but it's like Russia is doing a good job of bringing the old band back together in their familiar roles.
In the US context it's most noticeable among Republicans. (Of course, they're the most easily swayed by events and emotional manipulation for good or bad. =V ) You have to remember during Trump's 2nd impeachment trial, the GOP was vilifying the Ukraine gov't as the most corrupt gov't out there (because they supported Biden), and the whole hearing, if you were watching and recall, was on the extortion scheme Trump was waging against it to support his candidacy, which the GOP was rabidly in favor of. It wasn't even a matter of denying it; they were lashing Ukraine for the purposes of good. That was only last January! Fast forward hardly a single year later and suddenly the Ukrainian gov't & president are brave freedom fighters, vets are going over to fight as volunteers... It just shows how ridiculous their prior vitriol was.
Another way I saw the vibe cropping up is the way Americans generally talking about Europeans. I mean I'm from Texas. They wear their disgust for especially Continental Europe on their sleeve, France above all,* but even the limeys are suspect, Brexit notwithstanding. But recently I've heard scatterings here and there the old rap that the West has to stand together on this and "we're there for you Europe", like we've always been. It's heartening to see in the sense that good old democracy-loving countries haven't really been all-that for democracy and liberalism in a long time. But it's a weird volte-face to see happen so suddenly & completely.
The third way is the developing world taking up so explicitly neutrality, the ole non-aligned movement, with an air of being more than a little peeved the west is plotzing over this war unlike any war in the developing world they never lost sleep over.
I don't have much commentary to give. It was just an interesting thing I've noticed recently.
It does make one wonder just what kind of world are we entering into anyway?
Moving into something so old makes it also feel like moving into something really new and unknown.
* Okay, Poland has always been the big exception. There's some bizarre mutual affection there that's I guess the aftertaste of the Solidarity days? Not that that stopped the Polish jokes...
lowenz on 11/3/2022 at 19:59
Ex minister (of energy) of Russian Federation in 2002, (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Milov)
[video=youtube;1acSyiWzN8M]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1acSyiWzN8M&ab_channel=CBCNews[/video]
Cipheron on 11/3/2022 at 21:33
From that video and others, it seems pretty likely to me that Putin's plan was to shock and awe the west by taking over Ukraine in like 72 hours. If they had managed to pull that off, even if it was by the skin of their teeth then it would be a fait accompli then the west would have had to negotiate with Putin with the myth of Russian military supremacy intact, and the Russians probably assumed this would have a chilling effect on neighboring nations thinking of working with the EU and NATO.
Right about now Putin would have expected to have whatever puppet government they've been grooming in the wings in place, and all the pro-Russian states around the word would have recognized them as the legitimate Ukrainian government, and that puppet plus the Russians would have put pressure on other ex-Warsaw Pact nations for recognition. Plus of course the leaked maps showing some units invading the Moldovan separatist territory, to do Ukraine mk II but against a smaller nation.
This has backfired big time.
