lowenz on 24/6/2023 at 16:12
Damn, shit is real, there's a Wagner column marching to Moscow.
Jason Moyer on 24/6/2023 at 17:30
Quote Posted by Tocky
During the Gulf war? The one that was an astounding success? I'm not sure what you mean. The Patriot wasn't used then.
It was used in the 91 war, but that was about 80 variations of the system ago.
demagogue on 24/6/2023 at 18:09
People were talking about Xi & China's role in this, and the first thing I thought was Lukashenko & Belarus were gonna get involved long before China would. That was the right thought I had.
(
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html) Prigozhin says his forces "are turning our columns around," amid claims of deal brokered by Lukashenko
Tocky on 24/6/2023 at 18:11
Ah. I had no idea any defensive systems were used as that was mostly a blitzkrieg. Just wiped them out miles from where they could lock on to any of our targets. The Abrams was badass.
Kind of weird that Wagner is going to Moscow. Maybe they have enough loot stashed from all the gold and diamonds they steal from African warlords they prop up to make a power play of some kind but what? Surely not a takedown of Putin.
demagogue on 24/6/2023 at 18:15
Wagner has helped stage enough coups in Africa, they have the whole routine down to a science, and he was just following the same playbook, occupy the military center and roll into the capital as quickly as possible.
But they're not rolling to Moscow now. As the article I linked in the previous post reports, there's apparently been a deal brokered through Belarus mediation for Prigozhin & Wagner to stand down that he accepted. Not sure what he's getting in return, but at the least not being declared an enemy of the state, maybe safe passage to Belarus.
WingedKagouti on 24/6/2023 at 18:59
Quote Posted by demagogue
People were talking about Xi & China's role in this, and the first thing I thought was Lukashenko & Belarus were gonna get involved long before China would. That was the right thought I had.
(
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-23/index.html) Prigozhin says his forces "are turning our columns around," amid claims of deal brokered by Lukashenko
Lukashenko had a lot of pressure on him to avoid Russia imploding. A coup of Russia (or worse civil war) would basically have left him without dependable allies in the region and he has been in a politically precarious position for the last couple of years internally. He has been relying on some level of Russian support to stay in power. If a coup had succeeded, the new people in control would need to spend time consolidating their power, rendering them far less useful as allies in the short term (a couple of years or more). A Russian civil war would have long term consequences on a global scale.
Nicker on 24/6/2023 at 19:35
I just hope that the March On Moscow wasn't a feint to lure Ukraine into over extending it's offensive, seeking to capitalize on apparent disorganization in Russia. If it was a ruse though, I think you'd have to keep it up longer but hey, conspiracies... am eye rite??
Jason Moyer on 24/6/2023 at 19:42
Quote Posted by Tocky
Ah. I had no idea any defensive systems were used as that was mostly a blitzkrieg.
It was to counter the SCUD missiles that Iraq was firing at Israel and Saudi Arabia. It missed a few, but that was a really early variant of the system AFAIK.
WingedKagouti on 24/6/2023 at 19:47
Quote Posted by Nicker
If it was a ruse though, I think you'd have to keep it up longer but hey
The situation was basically started and resolved in about a day, so not really enough time for Ukraine to execute altered plans based on the events. They might have had time to draft some plan based on it, but I doubt they got to the point of actually sending out any orders.
Cipheron on 24/6/2023 at 23:16
Quote Posted by Tocky
Ah. I had no idea any defensive systems were used as that was mostly a blitzkrieg. Just wiped them out miles from where they could lock on to any of our targets. The Abrams was badass.
I would have thought that almost all people only knew the term "Patriot Missile" FROM the 1991 war. It's the one that got all the publicity for those. Patriots vs the Scuds. Calling the success rate propaganda is fair:
(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot)
Quote:
On February 15, 1991, President George H. W. Bush traveled to Raytheon's Patriot manufacturing plant in Andover, Massachusetts, during the Gulf War. He declared, the "Patriot is 41 for 42: 42 Scuds engaged, 41 intercepted!" The President's claimed success rate was over 97% at that point in the war.
On April 7, 1992 Theodore Postol of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Reuven Pedatzur of Tel Aviv University testified before a House Committee stating that, according to their independent analysis of video tapes, the Patriot system had a success rate of below 10%, and perhaps even a zero success rate.
