lowenz on 1/3/2023 at 11:58
It's not important what people "think", it's important what they do (mobilization). Their believes are just functional to their duty.
Authorities act in this cold systemic way when they plan, it's why it's better to do the same to avoid bad surprises.....
heywood on 1/3/2023 at 12:42
Remember that Putin plays the long game. When the recession hits, NATO countries will start to lose their appetite for funding the war, people will question whether sanctions are productive, and Ukraine will run short of capable fighters too. If Russia can simply keep the war at a stalemate, they're probably going to win over the long term by wearing us down. That's why it's important to put Russian forces on the retreat and start making some territorial gains again, especially gaining full control of the Dnipro.
Re: Austria. What I mean by that is Austria is trying to have its cake and eat it too. Because of its neutral position during the Cold War, maybe it doesn't fear Russian dominance like some of its eastern neighbors. Austria is trying to play the neutral card again, but that neutrality ended when they joined the EU.
Qooper on 1/3/2023 at 13:08
Quote Posted by heywood
Remember that Putin plays the long game. When the recession hits, NATO countries will start to lose their appetite for funding the war, people will question whether sanctions are productive, and Ukraine will run short of capable fighters too.
This is a good point, although it could also be argued that time is not on Putin's side, which of course brings us to the thing you mentioned next:
Quote:
If Russia can simply keep the war at a stalemate, they're probably going to win over the long term by wearing us down. That's why it's important to put Russian forces on the retreat and start making some territorial gains again, especially gaining full control of the Dnipro.
This. I'd say that putting pressure on key locations in Crimea using GLSDBs would be good. Crimea is the crown jewel of Putin's land grab.
lowenz on 1/3/2023 at 14:12
Problem is: Putin dead, there's hundreds of him with the same ideology (and "individual russian citizen death is NOT important, we're not individualist like THEY'RE, we're a BODY", "richness is just an illusion, embrace patriotic austerity" are part of it)
It's NOT the "putin's war", it's the "russian elite mindset war".
nemyax on 1/3/2023 at 19:48
Quote Posted by lowenz
it's the "russian elite mindset war"
It's an "I fucked up big time and now I can't weasel my way out of this so I'll keep at it and see what happens" war. Which, arguably,
is the Russian elite mindset.
Starker on 1/3/2023 at 22:29
I've been speaking to a number of Russians during this past year and nearly every one of them believes Russia could win this war, if only the US stopped supporting Ukraine, because the Ukrainians would just give up otherwise. A few of them even said outright they hope Trump wins the election, because then the war would be over.
It's not only the elite mindset that counts, it's also what the ordinary people think, and to me it basically boils down to two things:
1 Russians will put up with a lot of suffering. There's an immense amount of discomfort in their lives they are willing to accept, as long as they are not literally starving to death, and even then it takes a while before they go from petitioning the czar to even being willing to consider that maybe things could be different.
2 They believe Russia is great, is destined to be great, and basically will prevail in the end. They can't even imagine that a country like Russia could lose to a smaller country.
I've tried talking about various things that run counter to this, like Afghanistan and difficulties even big empires would face while occupying countries against its population's will, but I don't think it even made a tiny crack -- this "Russia great" mentality is just so deeply ingrained, even to people far outside of Moscow and Saint Petersburg.
That said, it hasn't been all that dissimilar to when I've talked to some US citizens about Iraq and Afghanistan who had an inherent belief in the righteousness of the cause.
Pyrian on 1/3/2023 at 23:44
Quote Posted by Starker
...believes Russia could win this war, if only the US stopped supporting Ukraine, because the Ukrainians would just give up...
The former might well be true. (The latter is patently delusional.) But it would take more than stopping US shipments of arms. Sanctions and the support of other nations also play roles that make things difficult for Russia.
Quote Posted by Starker
...things that run counter to this, like Afghanistan and difficulties even big empires would face while occupying countries against its population's will...
Worth noting that we substantially supported the mujahideen against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. It seems to me that there are no non-proxy wars anymore. You can hardly have a couple kids wrestling in a backyard without getting arms shipments sent to each side.
demagogue on 2/3/2023 at 01:48
Afghanistan can't even occupy Afghanistan with its population's will. :p
Certainly the US and USSR were never going to be welcomed or have a chance to put the place in order.
Solid point that folks of both countries have delusions that Destiny is on their side though. That's the real legacy of the Cold War that's still hanging on. I think they mutually gave each other a mug of that poison over the 20th Century.
If the war of mutual delusion is between "rule of law always wins, just say the words" vs. "rule of law is always a sham, never trust any institution", the least I can say is that at least the former has a chance of getting its hands on the truth, to wit, "rule of law is necessary, but it doesn't win unless you fight tooth and nail for it, and FFS above all you can't commit monstrosities in its name if you want it to work." You don't even get a chance at that much with the latter.
Qooper on 2/3/2023 at 09:36
Quote Posted by Pyrian
It seems to me that there are no non-proxy wars anymore. You can hardly have a couple kids wrestling in a backyard without getting arms shipments sent to each side.
My sister and I have had a small feud for several decades. You know, standard sibling rivalry. I suspect she's getting weapons from the US, but both she and the US government deny all knowledge. I of course am not getting any support from anywhere, least of all you guys :mad: Is a couple nukes too much to ask?
:cheeky:
lowenz on 2/3/2023 at 10:05
Quote Posted by nemyax
It's an "I fucked up big time and now I can't weasel my way out of this so I'll keep at it and see what happens" war. Which, arguably,
is the Russian elite mindset.
Problem is: elite is elite because they CAN "fuck up" things and don't pay (or payswhen every other instead has, see young men sent to slaugher for out-of-time imperial/irredentist ambitions)
It's why elite doesn't have to EXIST. NEVER.
They manipulate persons into thinking they understand the "needs of the people" but "people" are NOT the real persons, is a
convenient abstraction (Marx would says "ideology") created to use real persons as tools for the power to perpetuate itself.
Until they believe their own lies and crash everything.
*put an image of Lenin yelling here*
