Poland's political scene and what the future holds

Yakoob on 12/12/2015 at 04:11

Poland has recently gone through a round of elections which put the Prawo i Sprawiedliwosc party largely in charge. For those who don't know, the PiS party veers deep on the conservative, nationalistic and pro-religious side.

After reading (http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21679494-two-weeks-polands-new-government-making-europe-nervous-return-awkward-squad?fsrc=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/thereturnoftheawkwardsquad) this article from the Economist, I was a little concerned. The TL;DR version is that the party has been replacing many key governmental figures with people aligned to their cause, promotes anti-abortion and anti-gender-equality agenda, wants to re-open the investigation about 2010 presidential plane crash tragedy, is refusing Syrian refugees, among many other issues. However, the article is bit biased, ignoring Poland's own national interest in favor of the EU. I've also spoken to a few friends there who said the situation isn't that bad and it's mostly the media blowing things out of proportion and giving PiS shit.

I know we have some Polaks on TTLG so I figured I'd ask for some more first-hand perspectives (plus many here are more versed in politics than me!) Even though I don't live there now, it's still my homecountry I care about (which I was actually visiting just before the elections).

demagogue on 12/12/2015 at 06:50

I just now watched Fareed Zakaria talk about this on his show. I can't say any more than I saw either. I don't doubt people there don't see things so badly, for one because I think national politics is always kind of removed from ordinary people's daily life.

Anyway Zakaria said it was significant because Poland was the biggest success story of the post-Communist era in the region, fastest growing economy, model country in the EU and UN, etc, and now it's taking a turn towards illiberalism and becoming like Hungary.

I think some of the reaction was the fact it was the West's Golden Child that had this that made it seem so bad. Compare Greece which also had a kook rightist turn, and people were practically expecting it, of course it would, like it had already become unhinged as it was.

My work is in law, so I just tend to look at the constitutional and rights kinds of issues, which all countries are susceptible to, without moralizing about it. There is some business with illegally dismissed justices, dodgy appointments, and restrictions on expression, press, and criticisms. Letting that stuff slide is bad news because that's the road to tossing rule of law. The kook rightist hate rhetoric, I mean every country has that dark side in it that sometimes gets a voice. It's just bad if they start circumventing the constitution and fundamental rights like Russia and some of the more dictatorish East Euro states.

This region isn't my area of expertise so feel free to salt the fries with what I said.

Melan on 12/12/2015 at 10:07

I reckon Poland's future holds a concentrated, incredibly hostile character assassination campaign from the globalist media (Hi, Economist guys!), various "civilian organisations" and international bodies, and the usual suspects from Krugman to Fukuyama. At least one campaign by "concerned Europeans" to activate Article 7 against Poland and/or get the country ejected from the EU. Lots of opinion pieces on how Poles are backwards savages for not voting for the "correct" candidates. Artists and intellectuals writing off the dirty swine as hopeless, backwards savages who don't deserve to be in Europe. If the government touches the privileges of banks and transnational corporations (which they plan to), expect heavier stuff like attempts to trigger a bank run, downgrades by the various credit rating agencies, and speculative attacks from various hedge funds. Those kinds of things. But most of all, hostile media all day, every day.

Otherwise, expect the usual corrupt, heavy-handed and bothersome government, except with more media hysteria than usual.

(And nice to see The Economist is still up to its old tricks. But they could really have declared their conflicts of interest, like Edward Lucas being a close friend to Radosław Sikorski, and a close confidant of the outgoing government. And that's only for the start.)

PigLick on 12/12/2015 at 17:20

On a related but totally different note, a Polish restaurant has recently opened up where I live, the reviews make it sound amazing. Real stodgy but tasty comfort sort of food, like fried potato dumplings.

Yakoob on 12/12/2015 at 21:36

Dema, not to brag but that's one reason I've been kinda proud of Poland - it really has been booming after we kthxbai-ed USSR, and joining EU has definitely been a big boost as well. Can you elaborate what you mean about "becoming like Hungary," though, not familiar with the situation there?

That being said, Poland is in many ways still very backwards. Visiting my extended family who are all ex-farmers on welfare, speaking sloppy polish and complaining how EU destroyed farming (partially true but still) etc. Or my friend who was blackmailed into paying child support because his evil ex recorded him suggestion an abortion at one point, which could actually land him in jail. There's also been the recent Marsze Niepodleglosci aka Independecne (day) Marches, which always end up with people setting fire to a (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T%C4%99cza_(Warsaw)) big rainbow sculpture in front of our Culture and Language institute because fuck LGBT rights :/

@Melan - interesting, I did not know about the conflict of interest. Again, I did get an impression the article was rather biased (taking entirely EU's viewpoint and ignoring what may be the best for Polish national interest), so I guess that explains it.

@PigLic - ooh where at? Are the potato dumplies (http://www.poezja-smaku.pl/chrupiace-placki-ziemniaczane/) crispy and friend and served with sour cream (placki ziemniaczane) or you referring to something else? To be frank, contradictory to my Polishness I actually don't care for potatoes or vodka much ;p but there's plenty of other yummies... I mean this was basically my breakfast each morning last time I visited:

Inline Image:

http://karaski.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/20151003_084253_RichtoneHDR-1024x576.jpg

But err, enough off-topicing...

demagogue on 13/12/2015 at 00:56

Quote Posted by Yakoob

Can you elaborate what you mean about "becoming like Hungary," though, not familiar with the situation there?

This wasn't my observation but a quote taken from Zakaria, who said the Polish president or party leader was admiring the Hungarian president in some speeches, apparently in terms of the "Soviet style" dealing with criticism (the way Zakaria put it), meaning censorship and cracking down on dissent, which is what he's apparently known for.

But again I can't say myself, I was just quoting him since it seemed a shorthand for the direction they want to go.

If it's any consolation, a lot of my Republican friends are posting pro-Putin blurbs about how assertive he is as pres. I think it's a widespread phenomenon now. And it's mind boggling to me how short their memory is or if they know what it means in terms of crackdowns and stomping on civil rights. Ugh, if we get a GOP president they'll be pandering to a base that wants him to be like Putin, can you imagine... I used to be Rep, but I can't even recognize it anymore.

Edit. I blame Internet 2.0 for this, for any country. Gives these people their own fishbowl to rile each other up and push to further extremes. (My Myanmar students regularly post mutilated bodies on FB. You can guess what daily exposure to that does to a person's politics!)

242 on 13/12/2015 at 11:09

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I think it's a widespread phenomenon now.

I noticed it too.

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And it's mind boggling to me how short their memory is

It's just that they never experienced it personally. Part of me wants they really get what they want, just to compare for themselves.

Yakoob on 14/12/2015 at 01:36

Dema - huh I find that surprising, I feel most Poles are still prejudiced against Russians (way more than Germans), especially after the recent presidential plane crash going to Russia and Putin's moves on Ukraine/Croatia.

demagogue on 14/12/2015 at 09:30

Sorry, I don't think he was implying Poles were becoming pro-Russian (unlike US Republicans, bewilderingly, where I meant that to apply). Only that the leading party is flirting with authoritarianism.

The "Soviet style" term (which I gather they don't see it like that any more than US Reps do, considering Obama's major crime is being socialist. It just is in fact), but I think it was used to make the point they shouldn't be so enamoured with a style of governance that they've been so kicked around on the receiving end of historically.

But maybe they're connected. When a group feels neglected and kicked around, they're prone to want to lash out in kind. I mean it made a lot of sense in Greece because they really felt besieged, by Germany and the bankers and the Muslims, et al, all the usual suspects. ButI don't know Poland's recent history if some resentment built up.

242 on 14/12/2015 at 10:01

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They are not prejudiced. They just were under Soviets, they know how it is, even though in a lesser degree than Estonians, or Lithuanians f.e. The closer to Russia the more insecure people from the former Eastern Block are feeling now.

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and Putin's moves

It's not just Putin and that's the real problem. Annexation of Crimea was supported by 90% of Russians. They are infected by imperialism, majority of them. They are totally fine until you start to talk to them about politics, freedoms or appreciation of neighbourhood.