Zygoptera on 22/8/2008 at 12:05

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Please rename thread to "Caucasians are dropping like flies".



It's all rather complicated. Basically, the Caucasus is a ethno-religious hodge podge where slights real, imagined and historical can lead to bloodshed at the drop of a hat. South Ossetia has a large ethnic Ossetian majority (NOT Russian, catbarf) and a significant Georgian minority, it was 'originally', a part of the Russian SSR but was rather arbitrarily given to Georgia by the world's most famous Georgian, Joe Stalin, as was Abkhazia. This is also fairly important as to where Ukraine is coming from- Krushchev gave Crimea to the Ukraine, and it and parts of eastern Ukraine are not too happy there, hence Ossetia separating itself would set a 'bad' precedent. When the USSR broke up fighting broke out in Ossetia and Abkhazia- it is unclear who started it, but there wasn't much doubt that without Russian interference the separatists would have lost and that would have led to significant 'ethnic displacement'. The Russians did interfere though, and got an internationally accepted mandate to stay as peacekeepers.

Prior to the current outbreak Ossetia retained a large Georgian ethnic minority (20-25% of the population). This is significant because every time Ossetia has voted for independence in referenda- contrary to most media reports there have been multiple referenda held- their boycott has been seen as invalidating the vote. It's also significant because it is the best evidence that there had not been systematic ethnic displacement by the Ossetians (there was a fair bit in the other breakaway region, Abkhazia).

The independence of both Abkhazia and Ossetia was not internationally recognised because it was thought that breaking up countries along ethnic lines was a Bad Idea. There are also questions as whether they could realistically survive as independents, Ossetia's population is only around 70,000 and it has little in the way of resources to sell, for example. Both it and Abkhazia have 'geographic' reasons for being part of Georgia in that they're both south of the main Caucasus range, though that is primarily an argument against them joining Russia rather than independence itself. Having said that, there is also no doubt that either breakaway region could be reintegrated into Georgia by anything other than main force.

The lack of recognition and continual Georgian pressure has had some unintended though not unpredictable consequences, primarily driving both separatist groups into reliance on Russia. The Abkhaz/ Ossetians were issuing their own passports, for example, but nobody would recognise them and for obvious reasons they did not want to get Georgian ones, so the only alternative was Russian ones.

From their and the Russian perspective you have to remember Kosovo, which the west in general could not recognise quickly enough once it declared independence. While you will not generally hear the comparison in the western media the Kosovan and Ossetian situations are almost directly comparable- small impoverished area dominated by an ethnicity which is a small minority in the country overall, both held elections and independence referenda which the ethnic minority boycotted, both saved from being overrun by foreign intervention, both having passports issued by a third party (yes, Kosovans got issued non-serb/ yugo passports even prior to their 'independence') rather than the state to which they nominally belonged. There isn't really any reason to recognise one as independent but not the other. From the separatist's perspective the west's position on the matter is nothing short of gross hypocracy, and I tend to agree.


Stronts my boy, anyone with knowledge of the subject (be warned, when it comes to TCDD I can provide pages of references) knows that assassinating people with dioxin and polonium is nothing short of ludicrous. As ex-KGB Putin would most certainly know so. Both have hugely variable effects- TCDD is famous for having an amazingly variable lethal dose rate- both take relative ages to have a lethal effect, hugely increasing the chance you'll get caught, both are persistent and most importantly there are far more reliable and less obvious alternatives. Polonium and dioxin are the sort of thing you'd get in a bad Bond imitation.


If there's one thing for absolute certain, it's that Saakashvili is stupid. He built his army stupidly. His decision to attack Ossetia, where the Russians were mandated peacekeepers was stupid, even if there was provocation. Announcing it live on Georgian TV so there isn't even plausible deniability was stupid. Attacking the Russian peacekeeping barracks (which rather counts as provocation, I think) was epically stupid. The Georgian army performed abysmally- when their only chance was getting to the Roki Tunnel quick to shut off any Russian reinforcements they got bogged fighting a semi trained militia with a fraction of their numbers armed mainly with RPGs and AK47s, then fell apart spectacularly against a Russian force less than half their number and which even the Americans initially recognised was a scratch effort with no prior build up. If he thought it would end any other way than it has, that makes him stupid. And if he thought it would end this way he's doubly stupid.

Thus, QED, he's stupid.

Basically he's Comical Ali, has considerably less democratic credentials than his PR would have it (ie using masked paramilitaries to attack the opposition, closing down TV stations) and is an airbrushed, english speaking version of a fairly typical Caucasus strong man- a cronytastic, corrupt thug with a gigantic Napoleon complex. To anyone who has followed the Caucasus it was obvious this was coming, he'd already overrun a smaller breakaway enclave and was on the record as wanting to reintegrate the breakaway regions by whatever means necessary. The only reason he's getting the kid gloves treatment is because of all the prestige and political capital that the Bush Admin has put into him, if the stakes were any less high he'd have been cut loose by now.

dreamcatcher on 22/8/2008 at 14:25

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This is a meaningless quote and a narrow-minded approach. Freedom House is a US-based agency which in a paternal manner applies uniquely American ideas of freedom to the rest of the world and comes up with a vague table of numbers.

Would you seriously give two shits if some Russian Committee for Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness issued a report stating that the UK is a repressed society where freedoms and privacy are constantly curtailed? I bet a twopence that you would not. Yet, look around: your every step is recorded on CCTV, your protest rights are squashed by the police and soon your every email, IM and website visited will be in a national database.

(http://www.yourprivacy.co.uk/mass-surveillance-in-the-uk-the-big-brother-society.html)

(http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/telecoms/article3965033.ece)

Stop presuming that applying your specific ideas of liberty to a society which developed entirely differently from yours will bring you a clear picture. Ask the people on the ground whether they feel free. Or not, of course. You can just go on pretending that yours are the only people blessed to live in a bastion of freedom.

242 on 22/8/2008 at 14:54

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Weak.
The thing is that people living in f.e. North Korea may think they are happiest, their political system is the best, there cannot not be better life for them on Earth, they are very special and God or Great Celestial Supremo blessed only their nation to conquer the world, and that is obviously untruth sticked to their mind by system propaganda. Untruth because without the propaganda and if they actually had an opportunity to try different ways of life their opinions without doubt would be different.

Rogue Keeper on 22/8/2008 at 15:09

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Cmon guys, I think some of you are ashamed to admit you subconsciously support (http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2008/jul/22/russian.emo?gusrc=rss&feed=worldnews) this. :sly:

Rogue Keeper on 22/8/2008 at 15:19

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By the way, just out of curiosity, how is Gorbachev perceived by common people in Russia these days? From what I understand he's mostly unpopular for what he did and what he did not do during Perestroika times. Please, enlighten me a bit.