Starker on 7/9/2023 at 19:36
That's the trouble with monarchies/dictatorships -- once you get a really crazy one, everyone will suffer and nobody can really do anything about it. And even if you assassinate them, the repressive system they established is already in place.
heywood on 7/9/2023 at 21:11
Quote Posted by Starker
Honestly, any amount of legal framework wouldn't do anything as long as there is corruption and a widespread attitude of everyone scrambling for themselves by any means. It's just so easy to ignore with a bribe or two and everybody's finding any loophole they can to game the system. Life in the Soviet Union used to be somewhat like that -- if something belonged to the state, you'd be an idiot to not steal it, because a) it was the only way to get ahead and b) fuck the state. And a lot of people higher up were on the take anyway.
In China it's really taken to a another level though -- you see everybody cutting corners in hospitals, restaurants, baby formula production... you name it. Which leads to things like people scooping up used oil from trash cans and using it to prepare food for customers and lifts falling down in brand new buildings because the certificate for the building code is fake and everybody ignores the weight limits. And anything you buy, chances are it's fake or replaced at least in part with something much cheaper. Fake alcohol, fake gold filled with tin... even if you buy some mineral water from the store (because you can't drink water from the tap in China), there's a chance the water is not fit to drink anyway and was just put in a thrown away plastic bottle and resealed.
When China first opened up, there was a rush to establish operations there. But companies quickly realized that it was better to subcontract to a Chinese company instead, and let them worry about the politics and bribes and the health & safety of their workers. If it's a well known western company, everybody will have their hand out, and the CCP won't have your back unless you're vital to their development plans. And if you're American, the USG will prosecute you if you play that game. My dad's advice was to use your leverage in the beginning to sign a contract where the subcontractor takes all the risk and you can keep your people there for continuous oversight, because as soon as you're not looking, they will go off script. I have a couple of close friends who worked in quality in Shenzen about 10 years ago, a lot of westerners were doing it. But Chinese manufacturing quality has improved hugely and Chinese companies are the best at making many types of products now.
Safety - yeah, there's still working on appreciating that.
And what is it with the fakes? It seems like the online retail platforms are flooded with them now. I've gone back to Amazon, but even there you have to be careful who you buy from.
Starker on 8/9/2023 at 03:33
It's like a model example of the principal-agent problem, except it's even worse since the whole place is flooded with ever more sophisticated pig butchering scams -- a type of scheme where you of course are the pig, and the butcher will spend weeks or even months fattening you up -- that is building a genuine seeming relationship before they gut you.
And what makes it even worse is that the scammers are often victims themselves, literally human trafficked slaves.
zoog on 8/9/2023 at 10:17
Quote Posted by heywood
Cheerleaders for a strong dollar don't realize that it kills manufacturing jobs in the US.
Yeah, because big business men and goverment are dumb and you are smart, do i understand correctly?
Of course China does some mind control, but doesn't West? If your answer is no, then tell why, - because our masters are so good and kind or just because they do their job much better and cleaner? Anyways - you haven't heard of muslim community in China raping little children from neighbourhood for 40 years without any penalty.
Cipheron on 8/9/2023 at 10:20
Quote Posted by zoog
Yeah, because big business men and goverment are dumb and you are smart, do i understand correctly?
Neither "big business men" nor "government" are the ones who really gain from a high dollar. It just seems like a weird assumption for you to make.
A lower US dollar means that "big business men" can pay American workers less and make more profit from exports. They still getting paid in e.g. Euros, but because it wouldn't take as many Euros to get the same amount of dollars, they can pocket a bigger difference when paying workers. Many "big business men" would thus love it if the dollar was much weaker, as it effectively lowers wages for the entire workforce. Keep in mind that rich people don't keep their holdings in cash, but in stocks and real-estate, which GAIN in value when the dollar drops. So Musk might be worth $200 billion, but if the dollar was to collapse in value, stock prices would rise via inflation and he could be worth $1 trillion.
Plus, the US Federal Debt is valued in US dollars, so if the dollar drops in value, the total US debt immediately does too. So, a weaker dollar would mean it's cheaper to service ANY debt that's denominated in dollars, and the single-biggest debt holder is the US government. So no, the "government" as a whole doesn't benefit from a high dollar. There are also large payouts they're doing for Social Security and Medicare which are set amount of dollars. A cheaper dollar means it effectively lowers these repayments too, in real terms.
Then there's the whole trade deficit vs China angle too. If the dollar drops vs the Yuan then the balance of imports/exports to that nation shifts. So it's an effective tool to balance the trade-deficit without having to implement policies such as tariffs or quotas, both of which are prone to backfiring. So, a weaker US dollar would mean more jobs shift from imports to locally-produced goods without many of the detrimental economic effects that you see from quotas & tariffs.
So no, it REALLY IS only uneducated people who cheer for a "higher dollar" out of some sense of national pride. Neither "big business men" or "government" get much out of it, and can in fact be harmed by the dollar being too high. A "high dollar" could be a talking point on Fox News or similar, but the audience is the uneducated yokels who will cheer USA USA for anything without knowing how any of it works.
zoog on 11/9/2023 at 04:51
Quote Posted by Cipheron
Neither "big business men" nor "government" are the ones who really gain from a high dollar. It just seems like a weird assumption for you to make.
I was talking about transition to cheap chinese goods/labour.
Quote:
So no, the "government" as a whole doesn't benefit from a high dollar.
I envy your boldness to think that you know how and for what government works. Or maybe you believe in democracy, i.e. that it's goal is to serve mere people?
heywood on 11/9/2023 at 13:49
Quote Posted by zoog
Yeah, because big business men and goverment are dumb and you are smart, do i understand correctly?
Because I use common sense. A high dollar means domestic labor is comparatively more expensive while foreign labor is comparatively cheap. It also makes foreign-made goods cheaper to buy in the US, and US-made goods more expensive in foreign countries.
Businesses who import a lot benefit from a high dollar. Businesses who export suffer from it. The government cares more about borrowing costs and the overall balance of payments than the dollar value.
Inline Image:
http://www.redmc.net/misc/trade.jpgInline Image:
http://www.redmc.net/misc/dollar.jpgzoog on 12/9/2023 at 15:39
Sorry, i was meaning another thing, let's skip it.
mxleader on 13/9/2023 at 13:21
Oh those wacky Seattle cops never cease to entertain....:mad:
[video=youtube_share;_j1ELvbZ9O8]https://youtu.be/_j1ELvbZ9O8?si=Ttyk3X--S3g_KET8[/video]
Cipheron on 20/9/2023 at 07:23
Quote Posted by zoog
I was talking about transition to cheap chinese goods/labour.
I envy your boldness to think that you know how and for what government works. Or maybe you believe in democracy, i.e. that it's goal is to serve mere people?
I'm not making stuff up or making any assumptions about what the government SHOULD do, i'm just stating what they do do.
For a start, government and economists always want inflation to be a thing. If the real value of a currency is going up over time, that's called
deflation and it's basically the thing they fear the most. So the stability of modern economic systems is based on the value of currencies dropping over time.
The official US stated government goal is ~2% inflation per year. Since you mentioned China, it's not actually any different there. They have a similar inflation target. So if you have $50 it will lose $1 of real value every year. So when people say a "strong dollar" they don't mean the dollar is worth more, or even held it's value. It's always weaker than the year before, on purpose.
It's not really "serving the people" if the dollar goes up in value, and the reason is because then people stop investing OR spending since you can "make money" by basically sticking money in your mattress - it will be worth more later. So people stop spending and stop investing, and it causes big problems.
(
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3015/economics/why-inflation-makes-it-easier-for-government-to-pay-debt/)
Quote:
Why inflation makes it easier for government to pay debt
...
Higher inflation increases nominal tax revenues (if prices are higher, the government will collect more VAT, workers pay more income tax)
Higher inflation reduces the real value of debt, bondholders on fixed interest rates will see a fall in the real value of their bonds and it becomes easier for the government to pay back these bonds.
Higher inflation can enable the government to freeze income tax thresholds so more workers pay higher tax rates - it becomes a way to increase tax revenues without increasing tax rates.
The USA has a big debt problem. Just the federal government currently owe $33 Trillion dollars. Also, the federal government has total "future liabilities" of almost $200 trillion. Those are payments they're obligated to make at some future point but don't include the regular operating costs/deficit of the government, so that's in addition to the normal debts they generate. You can get up to date figures here:
(
https://www.usdebtclock.org/)
The main ways they can deal with debt are
(1) raise taxes
(2) cut spending
(3) print more money
The first two are always harder than the third one. Now they don't want to print too much money all at once, but as the debt increases the temptation to print more money will increase. For example, if 5 cents is cut off the value of the dollar that's equivalent to the $33 trillion dollar debt dropping by $1.6 trillion. Which would be FAR easier to push through than either $1.6 trillion dollars worth of tax hikes or spending cuts.
(
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090215/3-reasons-why-countries-devalue-their-currency.asp)
Quote:
3 Reasons Why Countries Devalue Their Currency
1. To Boost Exports
2. To Shrink Trade Deficits
3. To Reduce Sovereign Debt BurdensThe USA's Sovereign Debt is a pretty significant factor of the US economy, in historical terms. So while they don't really want to crash the value of the dollar all at once, the cost/benefit analysis would favor that more and more as the Sovereign Debt increases, and inflation (i.e. the currency dropping in value) is already baked into the system, the only question is how fast.
