heywood on 6/9/2023 at 13:18
My father finished his career in China, relocating there in 2003 during the investment boom that followed China joining the WTO. I visited in 2004. It was a fascinating to see the pace at which the old was being replaced with the new, and surprising to see how backward the Mao-era living and working conditions were outside of the cities. I visited Beijing and parts of the Great Wall, Shanghai, Shenzen, and Hong Kong. I never imagined there could be so many cranes. The cities were buzzing with development activity and excitement. There were internet cafes everywhere, and the great firewall wasn't in place yet. The police were unimposing, and I saw lots and lots of Buddhas. Younger Chinese were eating up foreign culture, movies, clothes, brands, fads, and phones. And the Chinese overall seemed entrepreneurial when I visited. There were a lot of small businesses starting up, a lot of people moving around for better work opportunities, and a lot of gig work for people coming in from rural areas. Not like a communist country at all.
The rate of change was unbelievable, and the Chinese people seemed to be embracing it, taking risks and pursuing opportunities, chasing what we call "The American Dream" here in the US. My impression back then was that as long as you didn't challenge the party, or belong to Falun Gong, you could enjoy a lot of economic and personal freedom. I'm sure the Muslims in the west were being persecuted back then, but I don't recall having heard stories in the western media at that point.
I left there highly impressed and optimistic. I bought into the idea that the transitional economy was leading to a market economy, and if steered right, it would have the freedoms and protections allowing it to be fully integrated with ours. Hu entered office as an internationalist and a liberal, and they finally floated the yuan in 2005. I also thought that once the Chinese people were economically empowered and given a taste of western liberalism, they wouldn't want to go back. But now I know the surveillance state was being developed in the background even then. And they only enjoyed a few years of open internet before the firewall really went up. Hu also reversed a 20 year trend of divestiture and privatization by expanding state-owned industries again.
Now the party has all fallen in line behind a strongman, and he's an old-fashioned communist and social conservative. I feel sad for all the Chinese people who only got a little taste of freedom before the old ways started returning, not long enough to value it like the people of Hong Kong.
mxleader on 6/9/2023 at 14:37
China is known for changing very slowly, but yeah, they seem to be going backwards politically and where human rights are concerned.
Also, Hong Kong is quite a disappointment I visited Hong Kong in the early nineties a couple of times before the British turned it back over to China. Back then the city was an amazingly fun place and was very much the discount bin where old American expatriates went to live out the rest of their jazz and blues careers. It was a very fun place at one time and had a pretty decent economy even under British rule.
Azaran on 6/9/2023 at 15:24
Also ironic how the Chinese government is destroying Tibetan culture, persecuting Buddhists there and crushing any free expression, while touting Tibet as a great tourist destination to Han Chinese
mxleader on 6/9/2023 at 16:00
And no other country is going to push China for change because their economies are so intertwined with China's economy.
Azaran on 6/9/2023 at 16:17
Quote Posted by mxleader
And no other country is going to push China for change because their economies are so intertwined with China's economy.
Yeah they're untouchable. Go against China, and say goodbye to all the cheap products we enjoy in the west. It's a messed up conundrum
mxleader on 6/9/2023 at 16:32
Quote Posted by Azaran
Yeah they're untouchable. Go against China, and say goodbye to all the cheap products we enjoy in the west. It's a messed up conundrum
Opening trade with China really only benefits the owners of a company, investors and some employees. It has clearly had a domino effect over time as more and more companies move production to China. Once they do that they also pretty much give up all of their trade secrets and a lot of production control unless you have employees on hand at those factories 24/7. The companies I've worked for can only maintain quality control by paying US employees to live in Taiwan and China just to hang around the factories to keep quality standards up and to chase away competitors using the same factories. But profit margins are insanely high that way for the few who are employed in the west.
heywood on 7/9/2023 at 13:09
After my dad retired, he consulted for a couple of other companies who were looking to set up shop in China. He talked them both out of it. I had some long conversations about it with him on ski lifts and such, and it basically boiled down to China not having adequate legal frameworks and protections and Chinese business partners not being trustworthy enough to build long-term strategic relationships with. His other issue was the lack of appreciation for quality. When we walked and drove around the cities, he would point out new buildings with expanses of glass, which already looked dingy after just a few years because they never washed the glass. He brought me to the back side of city blocks to show me how the apartment buildings and store fronts are nicely kept up front, while their back sides show how neglected and unmaintained the buildings really were. He told me of his visits to medium-sized cities and staying at a hotels where the dust was so deep he made footprints when he walked across the room. Those were some of his metaphors when discussing quality. He had been traveling to Japan for decades and China was a culture shock.
Still, the outsourcing pull was hard to resist in the late 1990s and early 2000s when the dollar was high and the labor market here was tight. Cheerleaders for a strong dollar don't realize that it kills manufacturing jobs in the US. The dollar went roaring into the stratosphere at the start of the 1980s, which triggered a wave of outsourcing to Japan, Taiwan, et al and our trade deficit grew dramatically until the crash of 1987. The dollar remained weak for the next decade, while our trade balance remained stable and even improved. Then the Asian financial crisis hit in 1997, causing the dollar to climb again, which was followed by another wave of outsourcing. It accelerated when China joined the WTO in 2001 and didn't stop until the dollar crashed in 2008. Right now the US dollar index is at 105, which is troublesome territory. Two years ago, it was at 92. And ninnies are complaining that Biden is killing the value of the dollar. Really.
Starker on 7/9/2023 at 16:04
Quote Posted by heywood
I had some long conversations about it with him on ski lifts and such, and it basically boiled down to China not having adequate legal frameworks and protections and Chinese business partners not being trustworthy enough to build long-term strategic relationships with. His other issue was the lack of appreciation for quality. When we walked and drove around the cities, he would point out new buildings with expanses of glass, which already looked dingy after just a few years because they never washed the glass. He brought me to the back side of city blocks to show me how the apartment buildings and store fronts are nicely kept up front, while their back sides show how neglected and unmaintained the buildings really were.
Honestly, any amount of legal framework wouldn't do anything as long as there is corruption and a widespread attitude of everyone scrambling for themselves by any means. It's just so easy to ignore with a bribe or two and everybody's finding any loophole they can to game the system. Life in the Soviet Union used to be somewhat like that -- if something belonged to the state, you'd be an idiot to not steal it, because a) it was the only way to get ahead and b) fuck the state. And a lot of people higher up were on the take anyway.
In China it's really taken to a another level though -- you see everybody cutting corners in hospitals, restaurants, baby formula production... you name it. Which leads to things like people scooping up used oil from trash cans and using it to prepare food for customers and lifts falling down in brand new buildings because the certificate for the building code is fake and everybody ignores the weight limits. And anything you buy, chances are it's fake or replaced at least in part with something much cheaper. Fake alcohol, fake gold filled with tin... even if you buy some mineral water from the store (because you can't drink water from the tap in China), there's a chance the water is not fit to drink anyway and was just put in a thrown away plastic bottle and resealed.
Azaran on 7/9/2023 at 16:19
Quote Posted by Starker
In China it's really taken to a another level though -- you see everybody cutting corners in hospitals, restaurants, baby formula production... you name it. Which leads to things like people scooping up used oil from trash cans and using it to prepare food for customers and lifts falling down in brand new buildings because the certificate for the building code is fake and everybody ignores the weight limits. And anything you buy, chances are it's fake or replaced at least in part with something much cheaper. Fake alcohol, fake gold filled with tin... even if you buy some mineral water from the store (because you can't drink water from the tap in China), there's a chance the water is not fit to drink anyway and was just put in a thrown away plastic bottle and resealed.
Reminds me of the Great Leap Forward, when officials reported fake crop output figures to the government. The dictatorship insisted their dystopian idea was infallible, and quasi-divinely inspired. And so officials felt pressure to make it appear so, even if it meant taking every last scrap of grain from peasants who'd then starve to death
Cipheron on 7/9/2023 at 19:07
Quote Posted by Azaran
Reminds me of the Great Leap Forward, when officials reported fake crop output figures to the government. The dictatorship insisted their dystopian idea was infallible, and quasi-divinely inspired. And so officials felt pressure to make it appear so, even if it meant taking every last scrap of grain from peasants who'd then starve to death
So many dumb things.
For example how they killed all the sparrows to prevent the sparrows eating the crops, but it turns out that that sparrows mainly eat insects, and then there was a massive unchecked insect outbreak which DID eat all the crops.
Or, how they took everyone's iron pots away to melt down to make "steel" in backyard furnaces for industry, but it turns out that the iron pots were an important source of iron in the diet of Chinese peasants, so now there are generations with iron deficiency.
