Cipheron on 5/2/2023 at 07:21
I had some fun looking into these bogus "experts" on the "spy balloon" thing. Here's the take from the Murdoch press:
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https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/chinese-balloon-advanced-hard-to-shoot-down-us-expert/news-story/8a4da6830bc7ae81b4a1c9444e870fc0)
Quote:
Expert weighs in on seriousness of Chinese ‘spy balloon'
The suspected Chinese spy balloon may be guided by advanced artificial intelligence technology, a US expert said Friday.
William Kim, a specialist in surveillance balloons at the Marathon Initiative think tank in Washington, told AFP that balloons are a valuable means of observation that are difficult to shoot down.
Guided by AI?
Mr Kim said the first Chinese balloon looked like a normal weather balloon but with distinct characteristics.
It has a quite large, visible “payload” — the electronics for guidance and collecting information, powered by large solar panels.
And it appears to have advanced steering technologies that the US military hasn't yet put in the air.
Artificial intelligence has made it possible for a balloon, just by reading the changes in the air around it, to adjust its altitude to guide it where it wants to go, Mr Kim said.
“Before you either had to have a tether ... or you just send it up and it just goes wherever the wind takes it,” he said.
“What's happened very recently with advances in AI is that you can have a balloon that ... doesn't need its own motion system. Merely by adjusting the altitude it can control its direction.”
Ok, reading that really piqued my bullshit detector. So first I wondered, who the hell even are the "Marathon Initiative"?
It turns out that they're a lobby group founded by two ex-Trump administration guys and funded by a "who's who" of major defense contractors. Drumming up the China threat is kinda their whole thing.
(
https://quincyinst.org/2020/05/14/pundits-with-undisclosed-funding-from-arms-manufacturers-urge-stronger-force-posture-to-counter-china/)
Quote:
Pundits with undisclosed funding from arms manufacturers urge ‘stronger force posture' to counter China
The Trump administration's efforts to blame China for COVID-19's rising death toll in the U.S. have not been backed up by intelligence assessments, but it has not stopped Secretary of State Mike Pompeo from making the baseless assertion of the virus originating from a Chinese lab or the Trump campaign from attacking the presumptive Democratic nominee, former vice president Joe Biden, as going too weak on China. But there may be more than political opportunism at play. Weapons manufacturers stand to reap huge profits if they can stoke a new cold war between the U.S. and China.
Those overlapping interests were on display last week when The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by two former Trump administration officials claiming, “The Covid-19 pandemic has convinced many that the U.S. must fundamentally change its policy toward China. Shifting course is necessary, but it won't be achieved with a few policy tweaks.”
“That's because,” they added, “the pandemic's political and economic effects are bringing about a more assertive Chinese grand strategy.”
There are at least two big problems with this op-ed.
First, there's no actual evidence or explanation provided about COVID-19 “bringing about a more assertive Chinese grand strategy” but the authors plow forward with their theory that “Beijing was cruising to global domination” unchallenged.
Second, both of the op-ed's authors have undisclosed conflicts of interest that might motivate their prescription for a new U.S. grand strategy centered on, among other things, “maritime and aerospace power.”
The authors, Elbridge Colby (who served as assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development from 2017-2018) and A. Wess Mitchell (who served as assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs from 2017-2019), are both employed by institutions that receive considerable funding from weapons manufacturers.
The Wall Street Journal describes Colby and Mitchell as “principals of the Marathon Initiative,” an entity that has no website* and about which there is little public information other than that it was formed on May 7, 2020 according to the Washington, DC Department of Consumer and Regulatory Affairs.
The Marathon Initiative shares an address with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) where Mitchell serves as vice chairman and received $227,500 in compensation in 2017. Donors to CEPA include a defense industry who's who: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Bell Helicopter, and BAE Systems.
Mitchell's co-author, Colby, also appears to have benefited financially from funding originating from arms manufacturers.”
(* they had no website at the time the article was written, but fortunately they made one now)
Ok, then I googled this "William Kim" guy and at first didn't find anything. How convenient that they happened to have a specialist on the exact type of balloon that was flying over America!
Anyway, neither the very reputable Marathon Initiative nor Mr William Kim happen to have a Wikipedia page, but luckily I was able to find his LinkedIn instead:
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https://www.linkedin.com/in/williamhyunkim/)
Ok, this guy finished high school in 2013. Then it took him 2013-2019 to complete a bachelor's degree in politics/history.
Then he did 2019-2021 as assistant editor at "The Texas Signal" which is a publication so obscure that nothing relevant came up when I googled it, so i had to find links for it inside random Wikipedia articles:
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http://www.texassignal.com/)
To my surprise, this isn't some extreme partisan outlet and in fact looks pretty balanced.
He joined the Marathon Initiative in April 2022. Now, at exactly which point did this kid become an expert on high tech surveillance balloons, it's not immediately clear.
Given the nature of that think-tank, it feels like they just got the intern and made him pretend to be an expert on these balloons and completely made up the "It's flown by Chinese AI that explains why there's no propulsion" thing.
There is a grain of truth in the fact that Google built a balloon that does use machine learning to fly, but it seems like a massive stretch to say that the Chinese military secretly deployed this technology, but then were so stupid to test it by flying it over America, guaranteeing it gets shot down and any secret tech that's in there gets exposed.
So it's possible that China is testing super-balloons that have AI smarts, but I would still be pretty skeptical that they're going to find any unknown tech inside the thing.