Paz on 15/6/2009 at 12:43

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I wouldn't really want to turn this into another internet 'it wuv a fix!' thread, because yeah you can go anywhere for one of those and they're all based on about as much info as one other (not much). Learning about Iran's political structure is a lot more interesting.

Howeverrrrrr ... based on some of the better analysis I've managed to find (that tries to use actual numbers and political theory and stuff) and the numbers that were being suggested pre-election, 45%/13% seems very very unlikely to be true. Where did you get that from?

This is the best piece I've read really - (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/iranian-election-results-by-province.html)

It's good because it has the honesty to say 'we really don't fuckin know' at various points, and also names its sources/where they came from/etc, something media outlets appear unable to do at times. I'm sure it's not at all perfect but it acknowledges that - and I've yet to read anything better.

Kolya on 15/6/2009 at 13:50

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So I read up on Iran's political system and history. Please, forgive me if any of this comes off as overly general or naive. Feel free to correct me and give more details instead.
It looks like there exist some basic constitutional problems in Iran since the revolution 1979: Most importantly a lack of separation between legislative / judiciary / executive authorities fueled by the political power of fundamentalist religious leaders (another (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laicism) lack of separation), apart from a long list of other problems: Human Rights, Women's Rights, Children's Rights, Freedom of Speech, Freedom of the Press, etc.
What I would really like to know is this: Does the people's freedom, which they certainly deserve, include all these issues? Are these things actually on the wish-list of a majority of the Iranian people?
I read there has been a growing disappointment with reformers like Khatami who could not accomplish much against the Guardian Council's decisions and ultimately against the leader's power. But short of starting another revolution I don't see what Mousavi could do differently, hardened politician or not. And that might end up very bloody if the current government reactions are any indication.
One last thing, since Haplo seems understandably concerned with Iran's image from an international perspective:
Eventually the question whether Iran is a free and modern country, supported and respected by the international community, does not hinge on Iran's technological advancement, personal wealth or the beauty of the Iranian landscape, but on how Iranian people deal with these issues, once they achieve freedom, as I'm sure they will.

SD on 15/6/2009 at 15:51

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Those figures don't ring true to me. For example, they have Karroubi only getting 5% in Luristan - the guy is an ethnic Lur.

Similarly, they have Mousavi, an Azeri, just shading Western Azerbaijan province 50/47 from Ahmedinejad, and actually losing Eastern Azerbaijan 57/42.

Anyone who knows anything about Iranian elections knows that votes tend to be skewed pretty heftily along ethnic lines. For Ahmedinejad to be landsliding even on Mousavi's home turf is barely conceivable.

Koki on 15/6/2009 at 16:59

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Wow, they're really bad at this.

David on 15/6/2009 at 19:04

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Thank you for this, theImmortalThief. It's really interesting to read an account 'from the inside'.