faetal on 17/6/2016 at 13:30
I don't really know anything about that. I was just thinking that if they decided to ban guns (in this hypothetical scenario) and the primary supply of guns became Mexico, then any enforcement initiative in this pretend scenario could be more effective grouped at the border running checks than trying to chase guns all over the US.
As an idea, it's not really meant to be married to the current situation in the US, since my hypothetical scenario is never going to happen.
heywood on 17/6/2016 at 18:52
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
Well...it is and it isn't. You have to keep in mind that most of these problems didn't exist in most areas of the United States until the previous ten years. Most Americans lived in relatively safe neighborhoods, with intact infrastructure, and no real risk of violence or drug crime. During the past decade alone crime has become more widespread, previously nice neighborhoods now have shady characters loitering about, the police have become extremely confrontational and hostile (a combination of budget-strapped municipalities, corrupt judges, and asset forfeiture laws incentivize aggressive police behavior), and many working families who were previously financially secure are now hanging on by a thread...scared that any day now their employer will announce the factor is moving to China and they will be thrown into a drug crime ridden neighborhood.
This is not true. Crime rates have been declining steadily since the early 1990s, both violent crime and property crime. Follow this link and expand the first two tables:
(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States)
Gun homicides are also way down from their peak during the coke epidemic in the late 1980s and early 1990s:
(
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States)
Anecdotally, I've noticed that US cities are much safer now than they were in the 1980s and 1990s. There's far fewer shootings being reported in the local media. And I hear of far fewer people getting the homes or cars robbed.
I kind of agree with you regarding the hostility of police, although I don't know whether they have actually gotten worse, or whether their bad behavior is just more visible now thanks to the internet and cameras. I definitely agree regarding how the criminal justice system gets abused to raise revenue, e.g. civil asset forfeiture and court fees.
Tony_Tarantula on 17/6/2016 at 19:14
You're conflating statistics with experiences. What I'm talking about is something that's hard to study quantitatively but could best be described as how secure each neighborhood feels.
Crime rates for the nation as a whole are a very poor proxy. What is the geographical distribution of thise crimes? Are intimidating characters loitering in neighborhoods or intimidating children in school? How well kept up are residential neighborhoods and infrastructure?
Just a few variables but I think its a mistake to assume that total crime down = everyone is safer.
faetal on 17/6/2016 at 20:09
But how do you quantify the latter?
heywood on 18/6/2016 at 12:39
It can certainly vary depending on where you live. My anecdotal observations are based on time I've spent mainly in the Northeast and Midwest and seem consistent with the stats. People living in Detroit or St. Louis would surely see things differently.
faetal on 18/6/2016 at 13:13
But how does someone aggregate it all into an overall state of affairs like Tony has? A bus tour running questionnaires in every US town?
Anecdotal data is only useful in aggregate. Else it's just "I reckon", which is too weak to refute a more robust statistical overview.
Tony_Tarantula on 18/6/2016 at 14:25
Exactly. The only way to gain any insight is polling...which in turn is a secondary indicator. I do seem to recall that there was poll indicating people feel less safe in their neighborhoods but Im not looking it up on my phone.
Also keep in mind that post social media Americans are very distant. Most don't even know their neighbor's names.
PigLick on 18/6/2016 at 15:07
thats not actually a bad point, I know some of my neighbours, but only the ones who have been living there long term.
scumble on 19/6/2016 at 10:52
It's not a result of social media. You could say it has an effect but people don't stay in their communities and move all over the place for work, and my observations of American suburbia are that the sprawl of it makes neighbours seem more distant. People can drive home, disappear into their garages and get inside without being seen.
I don't think the UK is necessarily better. It depends on the neighbourhood too. I think I'm just thinking of lower to middle class suburbia in the US with detached houses on large plots.
heywood on 19/6/2016 at 12:27
When I was a kid living in suburbia, we knew all the neighbors. When a new neighbor moved in, we would often invite them over for dinner or a barbecue to get to know them. Kids roamed the neighborhood freely and all the mothers kept an eye and let each other know what was going on. It felt like a safe and friendly place. Now I'm living in suburbia again, as a father this time, and we only know a handful neighbors and don't talk to them often. For the most part, everybody minds their own business. It feels safe, but not friendly.
I think the main reason why things are different is that when I was growing up, most families could live in a suburban detached home and live a middle class lifestyle with a single income. So the moms and kids were around to form a social network within the neighborhood. Now you have to be a high earning professional to do it on one income. Most families are two-income now, with kids in day care, with more stress and less free time.
