quinch on 8/5/2010 at 22:32

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Well the Tories barely got one third of the vote share so Clegg can do whatever the hell he wants as far as I'm concerned. I just hope he holds his nerve and goes with Labour and onwards to PR.

Brian The Dog on 8/5/2010 at 22:43

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Maybe, but that doesn't mean that everything he says is incorrect. He's definitely one of the saner Tories (not that that says much).

Quinch, even though Clegg would probably rather go with Labour, they'd have to do an alliance with SNP and PC to get more than the Conservatives + Unionists - this would be so close it'd be unworkable. The nationalists would want (particularly economic) concessions that would piss off the Labour & Lib Dem English backbenchers so they'd never be able to get anything fiscal through Parliament.

SD on 8/5/2010 at 22:50

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Increased the vote share to 20% but still finished third. Unfortunately it seems like it was better the devil you know for voters in Sefton Central as they voted Labour to keep the Tories out - and the Tory candidate in this constituency was a particularly useless specimen too, I think we were all delighted that she didn't get in.

He can win it next time if he keeps putting the work in, it does rather make you wonder though why any of us bother when you can work so hard, be head and shoulders above any of the other candidates available, and still attract the support of barely one-fifth of the electorate.

quinch on 8/5/2010 at 23:05

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I read that Brighton's Green MP, the SNP, the non-unionists of Northern Ireland and the Welsh Nationalists could tip the balance.

ahem...so everyone plus the kitchen sink!

Worth a shot when the stakes are this high. Even some Torys must be sick of tactical voting.

EDIT:- I doubt the National parties would scupper any chance of PR when the public are crying out for it. Maybe it's a fool's hope.

Brian The Dog on 9/5/2010 at 00:51

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Yep, although Parliament has been disolved by the monarch, she doesn't have the power to fire the PM or the cabinet (quite rightly). All she can do is ask any MP who leads a party if they can form a government. Technically any could go along and say "yes", but since she then goes along, opens Parliament, reads out what that party wants to do (this is called the Queens Speech), and then asks the House of Commons to vote on it, any "government" that loses that vote (i.e. doesn't have a majority) would be kicked out and she'd ask the next party. And so on.

Normally this is all a moot point, since usually the biggest party just has their leader go to the Palace the day after the Election and say "Yes" to her, and (s)he then immediately becomes the Prime Minister. However, this can take some time in the case of a hung parliament, so it's right that the incumbent stays until a replacement can be found. Someone needs to be in charge in case of a natural disaster / terrorist attack etc.

For the record, the maths is (with 1 seat yet to declare, but this is assuming it goes Conservative, since it's a safe Tory seat):

Conservative: 307
Labour: 258
LibDem: 57
DUP: 8 (not confirmed, but will probably sit with Conservatives)
Scottish Nationalists: 6
Sinn Fein 5 (do not sit in the House for ideological reasons)
Welsh Nationalists: 3
SDLP: 3 (will sit with Labour)
Greens: 1
Alliance: 1 (will sit with Lib Dems)


So the 2 situations we're looking at are:

Situation 1:
Conservative + LibDem vs. Everyone else: 364 vs 280
Conservative vs Everyone else (but with LibDems abstaining): 307 vs 280

Situation 2:
Labour + Lib Dem + SDLP + Alliance vs. Conservative + DUP: 319 vs 315
Labour + Lib Dem + SDLP + Alliance vs. Everyone Else: 319 vs 325


The latter is clearly more unstable as it relies on the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists either supporting Labour or abstaining from decision. They may be included in the coalition, but the more people you need in a coalition to get votes though, the more unstable it is. The Green MP has clearly said she won't be in a coalition with Labour, but will probably vote with them in most things.

The money at the minute is on the Lib Dems to do an "informal agreement" with the Conservatives so they'd abstain at the Queens Speech and anything to do with the economy - that'd give the Conservatives enough of a majority to push the important bills through (ie the emergency budget that's planned). Since this isn't a full coalition, they can do it without having to clear it with the general party. Cameron will then call another election in either October or next March and try and get a full majority.

One things I'd like Matthew's opinion on as someone from Northern Ireland is that I guess that it'd be better for Northern Ireland that the Conservatives don't formally work with the DUP - Labour's policy of not interfering in NI politics seemed to work well over the past decade.

I've just noticed in (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/) the results that UKIP got nearly 1m votes, roughly twice what the SNP got - presumably they'd get a few seats in a PR system!

Edit - In reality the Conservatives have one, possibly two, less than I've given here, as it's their turn to have an MP as the Speaker and Deputy, and they don't vote except in the case of a tie (in which case they always vote to keep the status quo).