Koki on 18/12/2009 at 12:40

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Apparently we do. I'm listening.

jay pettitt on 18/12/2009 at 13:34

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I just got back from cycling 1000km to Copenhagen and back on a tandem, but this thread is soo awesome that it almost makes me wish I'd staid at home instead. Fragony, if only I'd realised - your unique reason and logic and innate ability to cut through evidence and arrive at something else entirely are truly razor sharp and not away with the fairies one little bit.

Koki on 18/12/2009 at 14:53

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damn

heywood on 18/12/2009 at 20:03

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Here's a plot of the 20-year global trend, based on microwave sounder unit (MSU) satellite data, with some annotations. Note the peak in 2007 was another El Nino and the dip in 2008 was a La Nina.

http://www.redmc.net/useless/monthly_global.jpg
(http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HANSEN_AND_CONGRESS.jpg) (click here for the original, larger version)

Here's the four individual MSU satellite data channels with trend lines. Each channel has a different altitude weighting function. They're in order from lowest to highest altitude.

TLT channel (lower troposphere):
http://www.ssmi.com/data/msu/graphics/plots/sc_Rss_compare_TS_channel_tlt_v03_2.png

TMT channel (middle troposphere):
http://www.ssmi.com/data/msu/graphics/plots/sc_Rss_compare_TS_channel_tmt_v03_2.png

TTS channel (troposphere/stratosphere):
http://www.ssmi.com/data/msu/graphics/plots/sc_Rss_compare_TS_channel_tts_v03_2.png

TLS channel (lower stratosphere):
http://www.ssmi.com/data/msu/graphics/plots/sc_Rss_compare_TS_channel_tls_v03_2.png

Here's the altitude weighting functions of the four channels:

http://www.ssmi.com/data/msu/graphics/plots/msu_wt_func.png

Clearly, there's a trend of warming in the lower troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere. I got the data here:

(http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html) http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html

You can also find MSU/AMSU TLT (lower troposphere) plots for various regions here: (http://mclean.ch/climate/Tropos_temps.htm) http://mclean.ch/climate/Tropos_temps.htm (note this is a skeptic site but the data doesn't seem to be doctored).

I personally have a lot more faith in the satellite data trends because the ground station data is subject to loads of issues with station selection, questionable "corrections", urbanization trends, station dropouts, and just general shittyness.

EDIT:

Interestingly, here is a plot of sea level that shows a very consistent upward trend. This is from a skeptic site no less:

http://www.redmc.net/useless/SeaLevel_TOPEX.jpg
(http://icecap.us/images/uploads/SeaLevel_TOPEX.jpg) (full size original version here)

Even if the atmospheric temperature record is in dispute, the sea level record combined with glacial retreats and shrinking ice caps seems convincing. After all, the rising sea level is the biggest of the known dangers.

And here's a bone for Fragony:

(http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020126/climategate-goes-serial-now-the-russians-confirm-that-uk-climate-scientists-manipulated-data-to-exaggerate-global-warming/) http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020126/climategate-goes-serial-now-the-russians-confirm-that-uk-climate-scientists-manipulated-data-to-exaggerate-global-warming/

Gryzemuis on 19/12/2009 at 01:09

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I like graphs. I like reports.

For the last 10 years, all we heard was: "the world is warming up, we're all gonna die, and all (4000) scientists agree".

Now we hear much more interesting information. It's clear the world got warmer than a 100 years ago. But did it also warm up over the last 10 years ? And if so, where ? How are measurements done ? How is the data manipulate to make it either more significant, or to work towards pre-set goals ? What different data sets are there ? What other sources of global warming could there be ? How is El Nino involved ? Solar spots ? Which scientists are trustworthy ? Which scientists did the IPCC depend on (in other words: which scientists ruled the IPCC). If we decided to stop global warming, would humanity be able to do so ? If we can't stop hunger, or kids dieing of malaria or even diarrhea, how can humanity work together to stop CO2 emissions ? What kind of scientists are these so-called "climate scientists" ? What other sciences are involved ? What do they say ? If the proof of climate change is so overwhelming, why did some scientists feel the urge to manipulate data ? Etc, etc.

It's discussion. There are numbers. Doubts are expressed and discussed. Things are more out in the open. I like that. I haven't made up my mind myself yet. I see that the world got warmer (melting ice caps, gletsjers, etc). But I'm not convinced the biggest contribution is done by mankind. And if it is, I don't believe we can actually change it. The problem is just too vague still to make the firm conclusions that some politicians have made for us. (And politicians are clueless. By definition).