CCCToad on 19/6/2010 at 03:40
All the hype over this is a bit ironic for me. For years, soccer was my favorite sport. Now that I no longer care about it, the rest of the country is just starting to get interested!
I think I'm fated to always be on the wrong side of the current fad.
ercles on 19/6/2010 at 08:06
RBJ, in most sports things go in cycles of defensive and offensive dominance, look at last year's pass happy NFL season for example of what could be seen as a transition season. I guess these changes tend to be influenced by personnel changes, coaching stragegies, and rule changes. Does your theory then argue that in a tough, defensive dominated season where scoring averages are down, that a less skilled team is more likely to win by fluke?
Medlar on 19/6/2010 at 09:50
After drowning my sorrows in a half bottle of Black Seal, this morning feels like all other mornings after a poor performance by our national team, lacklustre, drab, frustrating and sad.
On the good side however, we are into the knock out rounds early and I believe that is where we are at our best. FA Cup atmosphere suits our game, it is in our players psyche, from early in all their professional lives sudden death games loom large.
I do think Cappelo has to rethink his tactics, two up front is not working. I think a couple of senior players need to have a word in the Italian ear...
The US team played a blinder and should be qualified already, fighting spirit in shed loads!
Gryzemuis on 19/6/2010 at 09:57
One thing that surprised me. So far Argentina is the only team that took the full 6 points out of 2 games. From the teams that have played only 1 match, Brazil, Japan, Chile, Switzerland and The Netherlands have won their first game, and they can get 6 points too, out of their maximum potential of 6. The Netherlands are playing their 2nd match 90 minutes from now. The country is grinding to a halt right now. Public life will continue at 16:00.
Edit: another bad game by the Dutch. But we won, and are now the 2nd team that got 6 points out of 2 games. I'm sure Brazil will join Argentina and the Dutch. Switzerland and Chile play on Monday to be the 4th team out of 32 to get 6 points.
Scots Taffer on 19/6/2010 at 16:11
Awfulstralia
N'Al on 19/6/2010 at 16:40
No.
Australia did exceptionally well to hold on to this draw given they were down to 10 men for 3/4 of the game. They even looked like the more likely of the two teams to score again.
Rug Burn Junky on 19/6/2010 at 19:25
Quote Posted by ercles
Does your theory then argue that in a tough, defensive dominated season where scoring averages are down, that a less skilled team is more likely to win by fluke?
This isn't a "theory." This is just how the math works: as the ratio of standard deviation increases proportionally to the related means, the more variance affects the scoring as opposed to anything of statistical significance. This is compounded by the discrete nature of scoring in soccer (if your StDev is, say, .80, a single fluke goal is already 1.25 StDevs away from the mean).
Of course lower scoring in the NFL wouldn't have that affect because it would presumably reduce the StDev as well, and the NFL has the inherent advantage of "fractional" scoring - a "goal" is worth 6+1 points, but the scoring differentials can be as little as 1/7th of that.
Namdrol on 19/6/2010 at 21:30
Quote Posted by Rug Burn Junky
..simple statistical variance will mean that the lesser team will come away with a victory far more often than is warranted. It divorces "skill at the game" just enough from "winner of the game" to render the validity of victory questionable.
Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992 only four clubs have won the league, with one club having won it 11 times, two having 3 apiece and one, Blackburn Rovers, (the lesser team of your analogy, although it is more nuanced) winning once.
In every single season, except 01-02, at least one of the clubs promoted from the Championship bounced straight back, with all three dropping on a couple of occasions.
In three of the last four seasons, three of the 'Big Four' Premier League clubs have got to to the semi finals of the Champions League.
Such consistency (tied to money and the skill said money can buy), does suggest that the -
Quote Posted by Rug Burn Junky
...fluke random chance (bad ref calls, unintentional bounces etc.) effect over talent and skill.
doesn't have that much of an effect.
D'Juhn Keep on 19/6/2010 at 22:41
England are the arse of the world
Namdrol on 19/6/2010 at 22:49
Which is why I live in Scotland :sly:
