faetal on 8/11/2016 at 21:28
Quote Posted by Starker
Or are we talking about how the situation can get so bad by already assuming that the situation has gotten so bad? Assume that there is complete collapse of all civilisation and humans are barely surviving, etc?
I'm talking about a worst case scenario after a ME event has wiped out >95% of all life on earth, as has happened before under less drastic conditions (assuming our warming trend continues at this rate).
Vivian on 8/11/2016 at 21:37
Yo Faetal, so the biggest winner in the PT was a relatively large mammal-like herbivore ((
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lystrosaurus)). Cat-dog sized cynodonts (which are pretty much mammals), small-croc-sized archosauriformes, all fairly complicated and high-tier things. Probably the weedy versions yeah, but weeds can also just be persistent little fuckers. Oceanic white tips used to be weedy as fuck before we happened. Actually shit, I might have disproved one of my own points, we've quite successfully messed up the oceanic white tips game. Anyways, things don't have to be real simple little animals to survive armageddon.
faetal on 8/11/2016 at 21:44
Earlier points about litter size, reproductive frequency and time until independence still of interest (I guess things like diet diversity / adaptability and assimilation efficiency are going to be hard to determine). Also, when you say biggest winner, are you talking big as in most successful or size?
[EDIT] From the wiki:
Quote:
Several attempts have been made to explain why Lystrosaurus survived the Permian-Triassic extinction event, the "mother of all mass extinctions",[17] and why it dominated Early Triassic fauna to such an unprecedented extent:
One of the more recent theories is that the Permian-Triassic extinction event reduced the atmosphere's oxygen content and increased its carbon dioxide content, so that many terrestrial species died out because they found breathing too difficult.[14] It has therefore been suggested that Lystrosaurus survived and became dominant because its burrowing life-style made it able to cope with an atmosphere of "stale air", and that specific features of its anatomy were part of this adaptation: a barrel chest that accommodated large lungs, short internal nostrils that facilitated rapid breathing, and high neural spines (projections on the dorsal side of the vertebrae) that gave greater leverage to the muscles that expanded and contracted its chest. However, there are weaknesses in all these points: the chest of Lystrosaurus was not significantly larger in proportion to its size than in other dicynodonts that became extinct; although Triassic dicynodonts appear to have had longer neural spines than their Permian counterparts, this feature may be related to posture, locomotion or even body size rather than respiratory efficiency; L. murrayi and L. declivis are much more abundant than other Early Triassic burrowers such as Procolophon or Thrinaxodon.[8]
The suggestion that Lystrosaurus was helped to survive and dominate by being semi-aquatic has a similar weakness: although amphibians become more abundant in the Karoo's Triassic sediments, they were much less numerous than L. murrayi and L. declivis.
The most specialized and the largest animals are at higher risk in mass extinctions; this may explain why the unspecialized L. curvatus survived while the larger and more specialized L. maccaigi perished along with all the other large Permian herbivores and carnivores.[8] Although Lystrosaurus generally looks adapted to feed on plants similar to Dicroidium, which dominated the Early Triassic, the larger size of L. maccaigi may have forced it to rely on the larger members of the Glossopteris flora, which did not survive the end-Permian extinction.
Only the 1.5 metres (4.9 ft)-long therocephalian Moschorhinus and the large archosauriform Proterosuchus appear large enough to have preyed on the Triassic Lystrosaurus species, and this shortage of predators may have been responsible for a Lystrosaurus population boom in the Early Triassic.
Perhaps the survival of Lystrosaurus was simply a matter of luck.
Starker on 8/11/2016 at 21:55
Quote Posted by faetal
I'm talking about a worst case scenario after a ME event has wiped out >95% of all life on earth, as has happened before under less drastic conditions (assuming our warming trend continues at this rate).
My point is that it doesn't mean that all our food sources will necessarily be in that >95%, especially if we can do something about it. You seem to suggest, though, that we are powerless to save any of our food sources because of the collapse of civilisation? Are you counting the collapse of civilisation as one of the necessary conditions for the extinction?
faetal on 8/11/2016 at 22:02
As I've said before, perhaps no fewer than 3 times now, our extinction doesn't depend on ALL food we can eat disappearing, just that the abundance which we came up in is no longer there, allowing other things to out-compete us.
Starker on 8/11/2016 at 22:13
What exactly do you mean by out-competing us, though? Layman's terms, please, if possible. Someone else eats our food and we are powerless to stop them? Someone drives us out of our habitats? Someone else becomes the apex predator?
Are you talking about this: (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competitive_exclusion_principle)
Chade on 8/11/2016 at 22:31
Faetal, I also find it hard to imagine a hypothetical chain of events where at least some large animals can survive, but a subset of humanity can't.
You've mentioned some abstract figures that you say could lead to us being outcompeted, but could you give a hypothetical chain of events by which this actually happens? I don't understand the chain of causality here. You've talked about reproductive rate ... but we're apex predators, no? How do other species reproductive rates bother us? Our habitable range spans ... I dunno, areas with average temperatures from -20C to 50C? I'm just making a wild ass guess there, maybe stupidly optimistic. Such areas could exist anywhere in the world and we would be there. What food sources could exist there that we couldn't take advantage of? What animals could thrive in this environment without us being able to live off them?
heywood on 9/11/2016 at 00:05
Quote Posted by faetal
These rapid periods of warmings are returns to the mean after coolings. The difference between that and just an increase from the mean are huge.
So the rate of change isn’t what matters then?
Quote:
past maxima when and for how long and at which rate? Worried you may be quoting something very iffy here.
...
Again, be careful about what you are quoting and what the absolutes are - please link source if you want a better analysis than that.
Plenty of sources you can choose from.
Here's a quick one:
(
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7176/fig_tab/nature06588_F2.html)
Or for something simpler:
(
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/whats-hottest-earths-ever-been)
For a period lasting about 10 My in the early Eocene, sea surface temperatures are estimated to be >10C above the present and CO2 was spiking over 2000 ppm. Global temps were above the IPCC prediction for 2100 over a longer period of ~100 My covering most of the Cretaceous and Paleocene. During this period there was a spike called the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum event, where CO2 injection rates were comparable to now. Temperature spiked 5-8C and remained there for 200k years. This event caused an extinction event, but not on the same order as the “big 5”. Aside from the PETM, biodiversity generally increased during the period of peak Earth temperatures in the early Eocene.
So when I see the geologic record is full of rapid warming events and only one of them correlates with a mass extinction, and life has tolerated long duration extreme warm periods in the past, then I figure there must be other circumstances behind the mass extinctions.
Pyrian on 9/11/2016 at 00:39
Quote Posted by heywood
During this period there was a spike called the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum event, where CO2 injection rates were comparable to now.
Be wary of what geologists are willing to call comparable. 6 degrees over 20,000 years versus 0.8 degrees over 45 years is a difference in rate of about 60x. At best we can say it may have been comparable at times, since we don't exactly have precise data on the PETM - to put it mildly.
Anyway, I agree that the current mass-extinction owes very little to warming itself, as I understand it, being far more about habit destruction and more direct effects of pollution. That's not encouraging, BTW; it means that there's no guarantee that putting the brakes on greenhouse pollution will stop or even slow the extinction event at all.
Humans don't have any meaningful competitors - aside from each other. To my thinking, the biggest threat to our survival in the next 1000 years is obviously ourselves, ecological collapse or otherwise. Let's say we have an ecological catastrophe to the point where we can't feed half our population. Desperation sets in. Countries with nukes but without food will demand food in exchange for not firing. Countries with nukes but only enough food for themselves will refuse. Boom. (Alternatively, we elect a loose cannon like Trump, and then Putin laughs at him for something stupid. Boom.) Civilization as we know it ends.
Humanity is so damn numerous that we'd probably survive in some form. On the other hand, we're poorly genetically diversified, so we might not. From the fossil record we would expect that a few off-shoots of humanity would survive as separate species, but I'm not sure if the fossil record is a good guide to our destiny. We've had quite the population explosion, and we haven't been around very long.
faetal on 9/11/2016 at 06:56
Quote Posted by heywood
So the rate of change isn't what matters then?
Absolutely, but the amount of change relative to the conditions of evolution of the current ecosystem matter too. 5 down and 5 up over a short time period is
way less disruptive than 10 in either direction.
Also, you seem to be ignoring the P-T mass extinction. This level of cataclysm has already happened before. With precedent, it's kind of hard to understand where you are going with a "temperature changes can't do this" argument.