theBlackman on 23/3/2006 at 08:30
The point you are missing (and no one mentioned monkeys -your arguement is specious-) is that the casino will not allow you to continue to double your bet.
The table has a maximum bet permissable. When you hit that, it's over.
Sure people win. That's why people play. There is a "chance". The chance for a uneducated player is very, very low. The casino makes money. Not from the "losers" although that helps. The casino makes money because every game pays them a percentage.
And the percentages rule in the long run. In a short run, the player can win 100 hands in a row. A baccaratt table has been known to run PLAYER for a MONTH. But eventually it went back to normal. There are exceptions. But given the math, the HOUSE ALWAYS WINS, not necessarily from YOU, or a hot run on a crap table, but they always win. For every dollar that is bet, over time the house will, and does get its cut.
To put it in plain terms:
A coin has 2 sides. A "head" and a "tail". If you flip that coin 100,000 times the percentages will be almost exactly 50% for each. THIS IS EVEN IF ONE SIDE HAS A RUN OF 20 wins in a row. In such a case the "leading" side will have a slight edge at the end of the run, BUT, and this is the key, it will be by a fraction of a percent.
Take a pair of dice. Do legitimate rolls 144 times. Keep track of every roll. The dice will come very close to the true odds. The 36 possible combinations on a pair of dice is:
2 - 1x
3 - 2x
4 - 3x
5 - 4x
6 - 5x
7 - 6x
8 - 5x
9 - 4x
10 - 3x
11 - 2x
12 - 1x
If you keep an accurate tally and break the results out, you will see that there is nearly a perfect match. One or two might be more or less, percentage wise, but overall the numbers will match the possiblilities.
And, believe me you don't "GOTTA WIN". If you had unlimited money, *which you don't* you could make a good run. But YOU WILL LOSE. You might get lucky once or twice, but consistantly. YOU WILL LOSE YOUR ASS.
As for your "coin" trick. Anyone stupid enough to bet it will run 5 or 10 in a row (heads or tails) is someone I will get rich off of.
And, as I said. If all you want is to get even. NEVER PLACE A BET. You are even before you play. Why play to get back where you started.
If that's your attitude, then take your money from your right pocket and put it in your left pocket. It makes equal sense and reduces the risk that you will win or lose.
kingofthenet on 24/3/2006 at 01:14
Your right Blackman,
I absolutely see where you are coming from, I am just playing a little Devils advocate. I still say when you guys talk about odds you are talking about "computer" playing, doing the roll and noting the results, to be tabulated,and creating statistics,not caring about any particular outcome. People don't play like that, If I need a "seven" I don't care about 6 or 8 I am glued to seven, seven is magic and changes my behavior, same thing with losing I don't care about anything other then nailing one win down to get even, this doesn't affect my winnings at all, you guys like to keep a running tally, I don't I dont care if it is 10win,5 loss 50 win, 60 loss ect. all I care about is the loss, if I can make that 0 I win whatever, same 10 win 5 loss breaks the 5 loss even, 50 win, 60 loss breaks the 60 loss even+total=55 win, I think the best is that modified Mart. strategy with your 5 loss rule.
theBlackman on 24/3/2006 at 01:35
If your definition of "Winning" is to "win" one hand now and then and not have more money than you started with, you have no concept of what being a winner means. It does not mean a "Tie" in a hockey, basketball, or football game. It means you are the sole possessor of FIRST PLACE. You WON that game, the other fellow lost. If you play football and make a touchdown, you think you won. That play only, if the other team trades touchdowns with you and ends up with more than you THEY WON. If you both end up with the same score, NOBODY WON.
To lose 3, 4, 5 or 10 hands in a row and then pickup one hand that puts you "even" is not winning. And to burst your bubble, you DID NOT WIN. THE CASINO JUST GAVE YOU BACK YOUR OWN MONEY. You did not get any of THIERS. And that, my friend is the name of the game. Keep yours, take thiers.
NOT COMPUTERS. The dice and cards follow the rules in real life. I have seen 12 and 20 straight passes on a dice table. I have seen the dealer get 10 blackjacks in a row from a six deck shoe. These are aberrations.
Firstly, the object is to walk away with more money than you started with, unless you are there strictly for amusement. When I play I make a profit. To lose a number of hands and then end up where I started is a waste of my time and energy. To lose a few gaming sessions, and to win a few and walk out with the same $$ I went in with is not my objective.
Follow: You pay for airfare, or gas. You eat, you may have a room. All this is "Cost" to you. Then you gamble. If you just get your gambling stakes back after playing your entire visit, YOU HAVE LOST!!
I have had losing sessions, but I have never gone bust, and I have PAID FOR MY TRIP and walked with the same amount I started with many times, but I did WIN (the casino paid my expenses) so even if my "stake" did not increase I was still winner to the tune of $200.00 to $1000.00 depending on where I went, how I got there, where I stayed and what I ate.
In the overall, in 20 years of play I have never finished a year in the red.
Most games (and consider that the game you are in is only a small percentage of the ODDS being generated by the game world wide) follow the "odds". Any individual game can, and does swing from one side to the other, but if you tracked that game for a month, you would find that the Odds stay viable.
An individual may sit into a winning streak, but can just as easily sit into a loser. Money management, control of your play, understanding the game will make you a winner in the long run. But the methods you have used in your "devils advocate" posts WILL KILL YOU IN THE LONG RUN.
You cannot change the odds of how the dice or the cards react. You can take advantage of them in BJ with a sophisticated count system. But in all other games of chance, there is no system that will guarantee you will be winner.
It has been attempted for hundreds of years. Systems to beat the house are myriad. None of them (even computer developed ones) have proven viable. Except CARD COUNTING in BLACKJACK.
The reason is simple. Blackjack (and Baccarat) are the only games that have odds that vary as the cards are played. In BJ, the cards used are removed from play. This means that the remaining decks have changed and the card distribution is weighted.
The same holds for Baccarat, but no computer or other system has yet been developed that encompasses the rules and a way to count the cards. Even if so, the "Player" has NO CHOICE IN THE PLAY OF THE HAND. The rules for Baccarat are complex, but are fixed. Do a google for them if you are interested. But with no choice on your part, you will go down according to the odds.
For example: If you are playing Baccarat as a player. Player holds X. Dealer holds Y. You know that both hands, according to the rules MUST DRAW. You also know (because you are a counter) that you have a 80% chance that the card the player will draw will lose him the hand. BUT YOU CANNOT REFUSE THAT CARD. The "Croupier" WILL DEAL A CARD TO THE PLAYER. Because the rules so state.
In dice games, and wheel games the odds are EXACTLY the same EVERY THROW OR SPIN. The same is true with your coin. 2 chances only. EACH AND EVERY FLIP.
The dice, the wheel, the coin; HAVE NO MEMORY. No matter what happened the last flip, throw, or spin, the "numbers" this time have AN EQUAL CHANCE TO COME UP. 3 heads in a row, 5 11's in a row in dice, or 3 00 on roulette do not mean the next play cannot be one of these.
