theBlackman on 21/3/2006 at 04:25

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To be frank, the three best games *oddswise* in a Casino, if you know the rules and how to play are Blackjack (21), Craps, and Baccarat.

However, in baccarat you give up a larger percentage overall. True, the bank does have the advantage, BUT, YOU PAY 5% on all your winnings if you play on the side of the BANK.

In order of appearance:

Blackjack

If you play a flat bet *the same bet every hand* and play a basic strategy with the most common rules, then you can reduce the house odds to about 0.65 %

If you play the best counting strategy you can gain an advantage of about 3.00 %. This assumes you make no errors in play.

In a normal game you start with a 7.00 % disadvantage. But because you have options in play and the dealer does not, by playing a tight Basic Strategy, you can be anywhere from 0.80 to 0.65 % behind the house. Proper play means you give up about ONE CENT per dollar.

Craps

On the overall, the disadvantage to you *house edge* is about 1.5 % no matter if you play the Pass/Come line or the Don't pass/Don't come line.

On the Pass line you are behind 1.414 % on the Don't 1.404 %.
If you play the Buy bets, or Place bets, or the Horn or Hardways or single number Crap bets, you give up as much as 18 % plus or minus.

On the Field, you are about a 2.5 % to 5 % disadvantage depending on the table setup for that casino.

Baccarat

In a Casino setting, other than some high-roller settings that actually play Chemin de Fer, the dealer does all the playing. You just decide Bank-Player-Tie, and wait for the outcome.

The "James Bond" BANCO game is "Chemin de Fer".

Every time you win on the BANK, the croupier puts a button on your table number that represents a 5 % commission the casino charges you for winning on the bank. This MUST be paid before you leave the table. Assume you have won on the BANK, and foolishly go broke over time. YOU STILL OWE THE CASINO THE 5 PERCENT!

Granted the bank is the major winner (by a small percentage) but the player pays no commission for playing, and with judicious play will win more than the Bank player in the long run.

To carry it a little further. If you play roulette on a American wheel, every bet (ANY BET) costs you 5-6/19th %. If it is Black/Red, single number, or multi-number. The exception being the 0-00 and 1-2-3 combo 5 number bet which is a little higher cost.

On a French wheel, the single 0 reduces the odds slightly, as when it hits, bets are "en Prison" for one more spin, and you might get away clean.


ADDENDA:

In Craps, just for shits and giggles. On the comeout roll, if you bet the Pass line, you have 8 chances to win, 4 chances to lose and 24 numbers, that will keep you in the game. (Win: 6-7's, and 2-11's. Lose 12, 2, and 2-3's). The odds are you won't lose the comeout.

On the Don't pass comeout roll you have 3 winners (12 and 2-3's -most casinos BAR the 2-) and 8 losers and 24 numbers.

If you know the game you then know what happens with the numbers in both the Pass and Don't Pass situations. You are now in a "Dice will decide" mode. The one difference being, the Casino will allow you to remove or Call Down, your Don't Come/Don't Pass bets. Of course, dummy. A 7 at that point will mean they PAY YOU, and the rolls following the come out have more possible 7's than any other number.

theBlackman on 21/3/2006 at 08:52

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There are many good books on BJ and strategy.

Many Casinos do give you lessons (at a special table) and allow you to use strategy cards that they give you or that you can buy.

I suggest Beat the dealer by Thorpe, and Anyone can win by Goodwin for starters.

The hard thing to learn is NEVER PLAY A HUNCH and the discipline to play your game, not the Casino's.

You need to learn to control your money, not to chase your money, and to quit.

If you sit down at ANY game and walk with five cents (5cts) more than you sat down with you WON! The problem is that your casual gambler has to win the house before they think they have won.

The other thing is that if you only go to a casino twice a year, you might win, you might lose, but in either case, you did not give your game a chance for the mathematics to come into play.

In a normal BJ game, you should win 49 times to the casino's 51. So a win one, lose two, win one, lose 3 is a normal game.

Simply put, learn the basic strategy, PLAY IT CONSISTANTLY, and make flat bets. You won't win a lot, but you won't lose your ass either (you can lose every game if you lack discipline that's where most players are).

EXAMPLE:

You need about 25 of the table minimum for ONE SESSION OF PLAY.
You never mix the payoff into the amount you buy in with.
When your Buyin is gone, you pick up the Payoff that you have kept seperate and WALK.
If you lose 5 hands in a row, you WALK.

So, if you go to a casino for three days with 300.00 as your play money, you divide it by the number of days. (300/3 = 100 per day) THAT'S IT NO MORE THAN THAT.

You further divide the 100.00 by the minimum table bet (say 5.00) which gives you 1 game per day. and you are still 5 bets short of the 25 you should have.

Between 25 and 30 "UNITS" (whatever the table minimum is) is the most you should invest in any one "session" at a game. More than that will push you into the "FOR SURE LOSER" bracket.

At 100 "units" you are loser 99 out of 100 sessions.

It's not $1.00, $5.00, $25.00. It is a "UNIT".

Find the table that has the widest spread from table minimum to maximum.

Increase your bet a little every time you win, drop back to the table minimum every time you lose and start over.

Blackjack is a game you can control. You cannot control the cards you get, but you can control how they are played.

In Craps, you are completely at the mercy of those dancing cubes.

And, contrary to popular opinion, Blackjack is NOT GET TWENTY-ONE. Blackjack, is simply, HAVE A BETTER HAND THAN THE DEALER. If you have 12 and the dealer breaks YOU WIN. It's that simple. Forget the "Get 21" crap. Just have a better hand than the dealer.

If you don't want to study the strategy until it is automatic, then here is a condensed version that will help you not get skinned every time.

1: If you have a 12-16 in a two card total and the dealer has a 6 or less, DON'T TAKE A CARD.
2: If you have a 12-16 in a two card total and the dealer has a 7 or better, HIT UNTIL YOU HAVE A MINIMUM OF 17 OR GO BUST.
3: Stand on 17 and higher (see exception at the end of this list)
4: Double down on a two card 10 only if the dealer has a 9 or less. If the dealer has a Ace, 10 or face card, HIT YOUR HAND and play the new total as per #1 and #2.
5: ALWAYS DOUBLE DOWN ON 11.
6: NEVER TAKE INSURANCE if you have a BJ and the dealer shows an Ace. You have your hand he has to prove his. Take the PUSH if he has a BJ.
7: NEVER SPLIT 10's or Face cards.
8: Always split Aces.
9: Always split 8's.
10: Paired 2,3, 6, 7 Split against a dealers 2 through 6. Play the totals as per #1 and #2 and #3.
11: Paired 5's = 10. DOUBLE DOWN.
12: Paired 9's Split on a 8 or less.
13: NEVER SPLIT 4's, that's an 8. Draw to it.
14: IF YOU LOSE 5 HANDS IN ROW WALK!

Exception to 17. If you have a 6 and a Ace, or a 4, 2,Ace, or a Ace, Ace, 4, that is 17, but HIT IT, and play the new total. The dealer in many casino's must hit a "SOFT 17". They don't do that as a favor to you. Count the Ace as ONE, and the 6 = a SEVEN, draw to it and play rule #1, #2, #3 with the total. Any two card hand with an Ace is a soft hand. NO SINGLE CARD IN THE DECK WILL BREAK THAT HAND OVER 21.


Aces count as 1 or 11. This can be confusing if you have two or more in your hand.

COUNT ACES AS ONE. You can get as many as 5 aces from a shoe, so count the ace(s) as ONE, then add your other cards and ADD TEN (10). If you are under 21, play the hand according to rule #1, #2, #3. If you are over, PLAY THE HAND ACCORDING TO THE COUNT YOU HAD BEFORE YOU ADDED THE TEN.

Ace, 3, ace, 5 is `1+3+5+1 = 10 Plus 10 for one of the aces -remember one of them can be a 11 value. So this hand is a 20. a good hand to stand on.

Ace, 5, 6 is 1+5+6 = 12 +10 is 22, so you play it as a 12.

Ace, 5 is 6, so draw. And so on. Aces are the most difficult to play effectively.

Good luck

theBlackman on 22/3/2006 at 08:50

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It's STUPID. The only thing you do is GET EVEN. That's where you started, and you can run into the house limit on a 5 dollar game at 500 dollars.

So your 320 double won't work. And you can lose 20 in a row. Especially if you don't know HOW to play the game.

A strategy for betting that pushes when you win is ok if done with control and some thought.

For example:

(We are talking UNITS OF BET HERE not $$)

1 bet----you win 1 you have 2. One is yours, one belongs to the house.

2 bet----you win 2 you have 4. One is yours, 3 you were paid. Keep 1 aside. At this point you don't have any money in the game.--------PROFIT=0

Bet 3--- if you win you have 6. All of them are the casino money. Keep 3.
PROFIT=3
Bet 3--- if you win you have 6 All the casino money, and you keep 1.
PROFIT=4
Bet 5--- if you win you have 10 All the casino money and you keep 3.
PROFIT=7
Bet 7--- if you win you have 14 All the casino money, and you keep 4.
PROFIT=11
Bet 10--- if you win you have 20. All the casino money. Now keep 5.
PROFIT=16
=============================================== Win 16 units
From here add to your bet about half what you are paid.

If you lose anyplace in the series go back to 1 unit and start over.

As you can see at winning bet 2 you have your 1 back and all the money you bet from here on is what the casino paid you.

On the 3 unit bet if you win you are profit 3.
On the second 3 unit bet you are profit 4.
On the 5 unit bet you are profit 7, and so on.

This way you take it from the casino as the runs come, and when you lose go back to 1 unit and make them work for your single unit. But you use thier money to buy more money.

Double up systems will always lose in the long run.

In BJ, Craps, or Baccarat, if you play more than 5 losing hands in a row, you are being very stupid. Take a break, relax and try a new table, new game, new session. Don't beat your head against a wall. 5 loses behind in a normal game is a big deficit.

mopgoblin on 22/3/2006 at 11:52

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This strategy can be analysed using the exponential distribution. If your chance of losing a hand is p, and you can only double your bet n times, then your chance of losing the next n hands is pⁿ. To make a profit, you require
pⁿ*(2ⁿ-1) < 1-pⁿ
pⁿ*2ⁿ < 1
p < 1/2

You still need to win more than half of your hands, no matter how many times you can double your bet or what amount you started with. You might get away with a small profit for a while, but eventually you'll lose a lot more than you won. Increasing your bet after you win, however gradually, only makes the situation worse.

In fact, there is no strategy that'll make you a long-term profit unless you can know when your chance of winning a hand is greater than 0.5, which requires some form of card-counting trickery. I'm pretty sure that, mathematically, there is no better long-term memoryless strategy than to make the same bet every hand.

Myoldnamebroke on 22/3/2006 at 15:05

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Wouldn't you prefer a nice game of chess?