Nameless Voice on 14/12/2019 at 12:53
I'd say Brexit changes the situation enough to justify a second referendum.
Northern Ireland has never had border poll because everyone knows it would never pass - until now, when for the first time people are more in favour of unity with Ireland than staying in a UK that leaves the EU.
I don't know as much about Scotland, but I can't imagine the situation would be much different there.
Ireland has a smaller population and it's an independent country.
For that matter, so does Norway.
From what I've seen of Scotland, they just feel like they are controlled by a far-away government that doesn't care about their wishes at all.
Scotland voted heavily to stay in the EU, but they are being overruled and being pulled out by England anyway.
Scotland generally always votes for left-leaning parties, but the country is now run by the far-right anyway.
Scotland has completely different values. They like immigration, they want to act to stop climate change, and so on; they've been able to do some of that now because of the devolved government, but that only has a limited amount of power.
A Spanish person (no idea how reliable, but at least someone who lives in the country) once explained to me that one of the big reasons that people in Catalonia want to leave Spain is because they are a rich province and they don't like that a lot of their taxes pay for the other, poorer parts of Spain.
I also don't get why Gray thinks he'll be thrown out, though - isn't that within Scotland's power, not the UK's? I thought that was part of the devolved government, and the Scottish have said they are welcoming to immigrants.
Gryzemuis on 14/12/2019 at 14:48
Quote Posted by Starker
I was living in the Soviet Union when the Soviet Union fell. I remember the Soviet regime. I remember the propaganda and the fear-mongering and the constant surveillance and the persecution of dissidents. And I see every day that very little has changed.
Ah. I knew we had people here from the USSR. I didn't realize it was you. Sorry.
I understand why you are double, or even ten-fold, more worried about Russia than others. No problem. You have a right to be. I do not want to defend the old USSR or the new Russia about anything. I just think that using Russia as excuse for any problems in the West is a weak excuse. Bringing up Russia when we talk about the elections in the UK makes little sense, imho. People dodging our own responsibilities is something that pisses me off sometimes. In this case, it was the Brits who voted for Brexit and Johnson. I should maybe not have responded when Nicker mentioned Putin.
SubJeff on 14/12/2019 at 15:07
We won't have a Second Ref on Brexit, though we should. I think the vote would be the same now anyway, as people are just sick of it all.
The reasons for this result, and the size of the majority, are quite simple imho.
1. Corbyn is a dreadful leader. He's too far left, is very uncharismatic and is plagued by his history of supporting revolutionaries - sometimes to the point of idiocy. Despite Labour's policies he's just an awful figurehead.
2. Labour was not pro-Brexit enough. The usual Labour voters have a significant crossover with the idiot Brexiteers, the ones who don't understand what it means and how it will affect them. Many are xenophobic too and thing Muslims won't be coming to Britain post-Brexit somehow (and here comes SD to tell me I'm classist lol). So they voted Tory.
That's is.
Corbyn + Brexit.
Pyrian on 14/12/2019 at 17:15
What they really ought to do is have a ranked choice referendum vote between No-Deal Brexit, Deal Brexit, and No Brexit. Maybe even throw "attempt to renegotiate Brexit" into the mix for completeness (European negotiators have said that's not on the table but eh).
Last session, the deadlock was that none of those four options can get a majority, which is exactly the sort of situation that ranked choice voting can solve (and in a way that's much fairer than a first-past-the-post system).
Gryz, for me one of the big things about the Russia interference is the sheer illegality of it all.
caffeinatedzombeh on 14/12/2019 at 21:35
Quote Posted by SubJeff
So they voted Tory.
Possibly in some areas but not in any significant number nationally as far as I can see, tribalism and the ghost of Thatcher are still significant factors for them, they voted SNP, Brexit, Green or didn't vote.
The number of SNP votes in Scotland does make things interesting but even Sturgeon said they aren't all independence supporters. I think Salmond's trial next year may have an effect on things, especially if Sturgeon gets called as a witness. Nothing has changed though and the SNP have no more interest in independence or ability to deliver it now than in the last few decades, they just want to moan that they can't have it and that it's all the fault of the English.
Gryzemuis on 15/12/2019 at 17:50
I saw an item on BBC news, on Friday, where BBC reporters were talking to people from Labour backgrounds, who had voted their whole life for Labour, whose parents, family, friends and neighbors had voted for Labour all their lives. Living in real Labour-areas. And this time they voted for Johnson. (Literally, some said explicitly they didn't vote for the Tories, they voted for Boris). I think I remember some of them said they will probably vote for Labour again in the next elections. But this time, they wanted to make sure Brexit got done.
So yeah, in the BBC item, it was suggested that there are a significant number of Labour-voters who voted for Boris this time. Even despite the ghost of Thatcher.
caffeinatedzombeh on 15/12/2019 at 21:32
Conservative vote was up about 300K over last time, Labour down 2.6M, turnout was down around 400k. If you look at traditionally Labour seats in the north east for example brexit party is up almost exactly the same as labour down. There are seats where the swing away from Labour is more evenly distributed though so I think it's not very consistent across the country.
Whilst a tiny sample size Labour voters I know who were undecided which way to vote largely due to not liking Corbyn (which I think is a bit unfair to single him out among a front bench full of people I'd not want representing me in parliament) looked at the polices of the various parties, concluded that their beliefs most closely matched the current policies of the conservatives and then voted Green.
(
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/) reckons it's more significant than I think though and will have used a sensible sample size to draw those conclusions from.
SubJeff on 16/12/2019 at 08:24
Dude, go on here: (
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results)
Select "cartogram" on the map and click the "changes" tab.
See all those Northern blue hexagons? That's Tories. Click them to see who they changed from last time.
You can also flip between 2017 and present.
caffeinatedzombeh on 16/12/2019 at 10:16
And then click show results and look at the actual changes in vote counts.
As I said it seems very variable between constituencies (I looked at about 15-20 that I thought might be interesting, I certainly haven't looked at all of them), it's quite possible that I mostly clicked on ones where there weren't a lot of labour voters switching to conservative, there certainly are some where they did in significant numbers.
SubJeff on 16/12/2019 at 10:28
This shows the changes overall. (
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50770798)
Yes, it's not all Labour to Tory and in fact I'm pleased to see Lib Dems making some progress.
The mad thing without PR is that Lib Dems had better numbers than previously but have less seats.