Gray on 30/3/2019 at 11:23
I'm hoping for the former but fearing the latter. Unclear which is more likely at this point. Logic dictates the former, but we're not dealing with that here.
Starker on 30/3/2019 at 14:21
Btw, this is where the chart comes from:
As for whether it's possible to reverse the thing, theoretically yes. The UK could revoke article 50 at a great political cost and damage to its democracy, for example, and I'm told the grapevine says EU leaders would be okay with that. Another path would be asking for an extension and holding another referendum in a couple of years. A third path would be to reapply to the EU down the line, as the younger more pro-EU generation comes of age. It will be a harder sell, though, because other EU countries are no longer as willing to give the UK special privileges.
WingedKagouti on 30/3/2019 at 15:27
Quote Posted by Starker
As for whether it's possible to reverse the thing, theoretically yes. The UK could revoke article 50 at a great political cost and damage to its democracy, for example, and I'm told the grapevine says EU leaders would be okay with that.
The short term (weeks/months) political cost would be almost entirely hit May and her cabinet of ministers, with a longer term cost to her party. But unless the party completely dissolves it will likely recover/stabilize within 5-10 years, possibly a bit smaller. Which is likely too long and scary for any currently elected career politician, who is probably more concerned with getting reelected than what would benefit the nation.
On the other hand, I'm not so sure it would damage the perception of democracy as the vote to leave was very close (52% vs 48%) and the scales seem to have tipped in the other direction (if only due to Brexit fatigue). And if they do revoke article 50, there's nothing stopping them from trying again at a later date. Even if they may grumble at the prospect of a member state failing to figure out how to leave properly, stopping the process and then restarting it at a later date, I believe that most of the other EU nations would likely find that a better solution for now.
A No Deal Brexit is going to cause a lot of logistical nightmares as the UK would be forced to (re)implement border control at every border crossing, including between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Which would go against various laws in both the UK and EU (in large part due to the Good Friday Agreement). If the UK doesn't implement border control as part of a No Deal Brexit they will be in violation of a bunch of international trade laws, which could cause even more damage to their international standing than any other option. Also, Parliament has repeatedly voted down any notion of a No Deal Brexit and the UK courts have ruled that Parliament has a say in how the UK can leave the EU.
Starker on 30/3/2019 at 15:54
Naturally, revoking article 50 to buy more time and revoking article 50 to reverse the results of the referendum are different things entirely. I perhaps should have clarified that I meant reversing the whole thing, as in leaving the EU. It was meant as a response to raph.
ffox on 30/3/2019 at 15:54
Quote Posted by Starker
The UK could revoke article 50 at a great political cost and damage to its democracy...
The vote nearly 3 years ago gave a small majority in favour of leaving. It appears that if a vote was taken now there would be a small majority in favour of remaining:
(
https://tinyurl.com/y9y52urt)
Is it really "Democracy" if you are referring to the past rather than the present?
As for the political cost, Parliament and Government have made such a mess of the situation that I don't think revoking article 50 would damage them much more.
Edit: WingedKagouti beat me to it. What do others think?
Starker on 30/3/2019 at 16:02
Um, yes, that's democracy, whether it was by a small majority or not. If a vote was taken now, and more people voted to remain, that would be the second path that I outlined. The reason it can not be done now has to do with timing -- it takes time to set up a referendum and figure out the details and the UK must take part in EU elections meanwhile. A couple of years is perhaps a tad optimistic, even.
Starker on 30/3/2019 at 18:04
As for damage on UK democracy, I don't pretend that I really know what I'm talking about, but from what I understand the issue is that ignoring the referendum, while legally perfectly ok, since the referendum was non-binding, is going to cast doubt on the Parliament's constitutional legitimacy. Which is already happening, but would be happening even more so. Furthermore, reversing Brexit in that way will not solve any problems in the UK (nor will Brexit, for that matter). Half the country will feel even more alienated and angry than they already are and they have already been at a point where an MP was murdered.
Is reversing Brexit less damaging than Brexit? I'd say it likely would be. Less damaging than a no deal Brexit? Definitely. There are no good options on the table, though. Every path will be damaging to some extent. But the most damaging of them all is this eternal limbo.
Gray on 30/3/2019 at 18:21
I was not allowed to vote, I'm just some random EU foreigner in the UK, so it's not like it's about my entire future. I clearly would have voted Remain if given a chance.
However, there are quite a lot of very angry Leavers now, and it's turning into an explosive situation. As much as I would love to just revoke Article 50, that might just set off one of them, just one, and it could do something really dangerous.
To me, the most obvious resolution now is a second referendum, to allow people to vote now that we have the facts, not some unicorn post-imperial wet dream. If it's still Leave that wins, I'm much more willing to accept it this time. I'll still be angry as hell with the idiots that voted against their own interest, but I'm much more willing to accept their right to be wrong now that we know what a travesty it's been and will be. If Leave wins again, it will highlight the fact that I'm just a foreigner in their country, and not a part of society. If Remain wins, I will feel I was right all along, and we are a bigger people than those very loud frog-like pint-swivelling foreigner-fearing idiots.