☣ Coronavirus ☣ - TTLG Forums

Gryzemuis on 25/3/2020 at 15:57

Russia closed its borders really early on.

lowenz on 25/3/2020 at 16:25

Quote Posted by Gryzemuis

Russia closed its borders really early on.

How can you close Siberia?

catbarf on 25/3/2020 at 16:26

Quote Posted by heywood

Did you forget about China already?

There's a lot of evidence of China tampering with the numbers. Last month, there (https://www.ccn.com/alleged-tencent-leak-suggests-coronavirus-death-toll-spiraling-to-25000/) appeared to be a leak with numbers that more closely matched what some experts had predicted. This month, their cell networks reported (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/china-s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites) a loss of 21 million cell users. Their attitude towards containment has also been widely criticized, in particular the idea of quarantine being an effective measure on its own.

I'm not sure I'd use China as a role model. We will never actually know how effective their measures were.

lowenz on 25/3/2020 at 17:02

Fantastic.....now the SNOW.
It feels like Auschwitz :/

Renzatic on 25/3/2020 at 17:10

Quote Posted by Gryzemuis

My understanding, but I have no numbers to back it up:
1) infection
2) 4-7 days of no symptoms
3a) symptoms for 1 week, light illness, then recovery, or
3b) symptoms for 1 week, getting worse
4) hospitalization
5a) get pneumonia, die within 1 week, or
5b) get severely ill (could be pneumonia too), stay in hospital 3 weeks, slowly recover

Please someone correct me if I'm wrong/incomplete.

From what I've read, it's probably more like:

1) initial infection
2) 5-14 days of no symptoms
3) 2-3 days of light symptoms
4) Heavy flu like symptoms for 1-2 weeks, then recovery.
5) Or it develops into pneumonia
6) If pneumonia worsen, then hospitalization is required. Possibly put on ventilator, moderately long recovery time
7) Or pneumonia develops into ARDS. Ventilation and intensive care is required. Very long recovery time, with possible long term damage.

Renzatic on 25/3/2020 at 17:17

And this is why we're likely to get more fucked than anyone else. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/louisiana-pastor-spell-coronavirus/index.html) Pastor again defies state order not to hold large gatherings. He says 1,000 people came to his church Sunday.

Everyone always thinks everything is a progressivist ploy to ruin their lives.

heywood on 25/3/2020 at 17:29

Quote Posted by catbarf

You're citing a nearly two-month old speculative article from Crypto Coins News written by a financial blogger, himself citing Taiwan News, which is an English-language propaganda paper that has published multiple sensationalist articles about Covid-19 that have already been debunked - including the one from Feb 2 cited by CCN. It is based on the theory that a Chinese media company, Tencent, accidentally posted the true numbers, but then corrected them within minutes, which is why nobody but the Taiwan News writer ever saw them. Or, as others concluded, he photoshopped the screenshots and the whole thing is just conspiracy theory fodder.

I'm not going to claim that information from the Chinese government is entirely reliable, but there are plenty of eyewitnesses in China reporting every day on the status of the recovery. I certainly haven't seen any reliable information over the last month to suggest they're not over the hump. I just watched an interview on Al Jazeera this morning with a journalist in Wuhan, who was saying that the locals are upset with the government because they feel like they're over and done with the virus but the government isn't opening things up fast enough.

Anyway, the playbook is there for anybody who wants to follow it.

Starker on 25/3/2020 at 17:54

Quote Posted by Gryzemuis

Russia closed its borders really early on.

Sure, if by really early on you mean a week ago.

jkcerda on 25/3/2020 at 18:02

[video=youtube;-EBMVDkBMAI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EBMVDkBMAI&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3HDveuyZJ6GphBP4Gk4fOrO7_T472dmNpDY5Y1hZq3BFGgObE_3gIzqD4[/video]

catbarf on 25/3/2020 at 18:18

Quote Posted by heywood

Thanks for the context. I hadn't seen that background.

Quote Posted by heywood

I'm not going to claim that information from the Chinese government is entirely reliable, but there are plenty of eyewitnesses in China reporting every day on the status of the recovery. I certainly haven't seen any reliable information over the last month to suggest they're not over the hump. I just watched an interview on Al Jazeera this morning with a journalist in Wuhan, who was saying that the locals are upset with the government because they feel like they're over and done with the virus but the government isn't opening things up fast enough.

Anyway, the playbook is there for anybody who wants to follow it.

Right, so how do you tell the difference between:

1. Effective containment measures stemming the spread of the virus until it starts to burn itself out, or
2. Ineffective containment measures allowing the virus to spread through the population until it starts to burn itself out

if you can't trust the reported values for number of infected or deaths? How do we know that 'China showed us how to beat this thing'?

I mean, yes, factually China appears to be over its hump- but that was always inevitable. We'll be over the hump real quick if Trump gets his way and we're all back to work in the next few weeks, with no attempt at quarantine.