lowenz on 20/3/2020 at 17:24
(
https://www.adnkronos.com/salute/farmaceutica/2020/03/20/coronavirus-bergamo-testa-farmaco-pazienti-gravi_tD2WrIuEGCQfkPyzRzQ6IO.html)
Google translate
Emerging evidence - Pope John and Eusa recall - suggests that the exacerbation of IL-6 cytokine production is associated with the severity of Covid-19-related lung disease associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Therefore, targeted action directly on this cytokine could improve clinical outcomes in these patients with critically ill disease. The trial aims to provide "important data to inform future clinical studies, which are being discussed, to further investigate the efficacy of siltuximab in patients with Covid-19 who develop severe respiratory complications". Initial data are expected by the end of March.lowenz on 20/3/2020 at 17:44
(
https://postimages.org/)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/h4kvDxgS/Untitled.jpg+381 deaths only here in Lombardy today.It's simply a MONSTER.
Really I can't even describe it. Only in ONE region (with the best health care) in ONE day.
And of course every death is a new bed in ICU already taken.
So today we are @+381+44 new entries = +425 new patients in ICUGryzemuis on 20/3/2020 at 17:49
Quote Posted by zombe
It caps at 20.4M in the middle of the last week out of 8 and starts to wane quickly after that.
I'm not sure why you think it caps at 20.4M (or 17.4M as you state in your next post) ?
Is that because by week 8, a large part of the population has already been infected early, and has already recovered ?
Sure. The simple calculation that I did calculates how many people get ill in total. Infected on that day, or have been infected and recovered.
If you assume people are ill (and contagious) for 2-3 weeks, and then recover, and are not contagious anymore, then that number starts to slow down as soon as the first people recover. True.
But in the end, still 100% will be infected, or have been infected. Right ? Or do you factor in a number of people who will be immune or will not get infected ? How do you estimate that number ? Curious.
But in any case. We both concluded that within 8 weeks, you can go from 1k people to several millions, without unrealistic assumptions. Not good.
Gryzemuis on 20/3/2020 at 17:53
Quote Posted by lowenz
Lombar
Dia :p
Sorry. Of course I knew about the D.
After posting, I was called by a friend. And didn't have time to notice my spelling-error.
In Dutch, we call your area "Lombardije".
We even have a famous children's song that every kid in NL knows: "The Queen of Lombardy went for a ride".
I'm sure Harvester knows it too.
(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVQID6Gm2k)
:D
lowenz on 20/3/2020 at 18:08
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Sorry. Of course I knew about the D.
After posting, I was called by a friend. And didn't have time to notice my spelling-error.
In Dutch, we call your area "Lombardije".
We even have a famous children's song that every kid in NL knows: "The Queen of Lombardy went for a ride".
I'm sure Harvester knows it too.
(
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeVQID6Gm2k)
:D
LOL
zombe on 20/3/2020 at 18:11
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
I'm not sure why it caps at 20.4M (or 17.4M as you state in your next post) ?
Is that because by week 8, a large part of the population has already been infected early, and has already recovered ?
Yes. Either recovered or died and are out of the infector pool. Additionally, as mentioned, infection spread is hampered by already infected people too - cannot infect them either.
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
But in any case. We both concluded that within 8 weeks, you can go from 1k people to several millions, without unrealistic assumptions. Not good.
Yeah :(.
------------------
Just to illustrate current and very real situation in Lombardy.
P = population 10.04M (Lombardy)
A = life expectancy 82.54Y (Italy)
Total deaths to expect per day from absolutely everything (accidents, diseases, old age, etc) = P / A ~= 334 (apologies for the quick and very approximate math that i hope i did not also mangle horribly).
This disease alone is way past that total every day :(.
Renault on 20/3/2020 at 18:12
I wonder if in the aftermath of this thing, if he U.S. will go overboard (debatable?) like they did after 9/11, and create all sorts of new "Departments of" and task forces/committees and install new overly strict regulations to combat the next time this happens.
zombe on 20/3/2020 at 18:25
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
But in the end, still 100% will be infected, or have been infected. Right ? Or do you factor in a number of people who will be immune or will not get infected ? How do you estimate that number ? Curious.
Oh, forgot to address that part.
Pre-existing immunity (immune system has seen something close enough and is able to stop it before the disease even develops) and what-not (ie. whatever other causes there could be) are embedded in the "average sick time of 10 days" assumption i noted (which is obviously, at this time, pulled straight out of my ass - but sounds reasonable as an average). So, 0-days-total "infected" persons are, by average, still dangerous for the whole 10 days.
That way in math i can assume that 100% will get infected (whether they actually manage to "infect" anyone else while being "infected" is already part of the spread rate).
Renzatic on 20/3/2020 at 18:27
Quote Posted by icemann
Well over here and in the US at least, many people have started self isolating for the next month (except for when they need supplies).
New York and California are now enforcing mandatory isolation, but where I'm at, people are barely doing shit. The schools have shut down, but everything else is still going on about same as usual.
Quote:
Anyone else thinking that the next great depression is about to hit? When this thing is said and done, the economic cost is going to be HUGE.
I'm gonna say probably not, but I won't say it can't happen. A lot of it depends on how well we handle things over the next month, and not EVERYONE in a position of power is a complete dipshit.
lowenz on 20/3/2020 at 18:39
Quote Posted by zombe
Yes. Either recovered or died and are out of the infector pool. Additionally, as mentioned, infection spread is hampered by already infected people too - cannot infect them either.
Yeah :(.
------------------
Just to illustrate current and very real situation in Lombardy.
P = population 10.04M (Lombardy)
A = life expectancy 82.54Y (Italy)
Total deaths to expect per day from absolutely everything (accidents, diseases, old age, etc) = P / A ~= 334 (apologies for the quick and very approximate math that i hope i did not also mangle horribly).
This disease alone is way past that total every day :(.
And they aren't counting the deaths in the homes for the elderly simply because there's no test/autopsy done!
So we're already over 400/450 per day
