zombe on 20/3/2020 at 14:40
Actually, to change the subject. US seems to have ramped up testing a lot. Spread ratios (new cases today / new cases yesterday) for last three days are between 1.59 and 1.78 - which is WAY too high. Seems US is hell-bent to catch up with reality via testing (at least i hope that is the full explanation). Are there testing stats available for US anywhere? Currently, US is at 42.1 cases per 1M (Italy was at that level of spread on 3-March [41.4]) - based on the bonkers spread ratio for US currently however, i think that estimate needs to be adjusted by a few days. Still, quite a long way behind situation in Italy with plenty of time to adapt - i hope. One extra giant petri dish for the virus to mutate in is bad news for everyone. There already are 729 distinct genomes known of this thing.
Also, Italy, is there some testing being ramped up too? Spread ratio has been "stable" 1.25 for a very long time and started to wane a week or so ago (consistently at or below 1.16, sometimes even below 1.0 [ie. the point where the virus would die out on its own if ratio is kept]) - however, lately, the ratio seems to go up again ... 1.19 ... 1.26. More testing or what? New outbreaks in other regions of Italy?
Gryzemuis on 20/3/2020 at 14:43
Quote Posted by Brethren
But so far, in the last 3 months since this started, it
hasn't spread at that rate anywhere else. So why would it suddenly do so now?
The first case in NL was reported 27 February. That's 22 days ago. Divided by 3, that means the number of infected could have doubled 7 times. 2^7 = 128. So we should be around 200 infected today ? In reality, we are at 3000 in NL today.
My village. First infection was Monday 10 March. That's 10 days ago. 2 ^ 3 = 8. We should have ~10 cases today. In reality we have 20 infected in my village today.
So here in NL, I see the numbers growing faster than doubling every 3 days.
I think 1-2 weeks ago, we had a comparable number of infections (total, not per 1000) as in the US. I think the US has overtaken us in absolutely numbers ? So doubling in the US must be even faster than 1 doubling per 3 days.
Quote:
One argument that you could make is that China is locked down, and we aren't. So the situation is different. But the U.S. is slowly sinking into a state of self imposed lockdown anyway, so it's hard to see that thing would spread at the rate this guy is talking about.
He might take the number of 25M from the case where the US (or California) is not doing a real lockdown.
Or he is assuming that even a lockdown won't be effective enough, because a large number of Americans are self-entitled arseholes.
For reference, I don't want to slam yanks (even though I love doing that. :)). We got loads of self-entitled arseholes in NL too. Our government doesn't want to do a real lockdown (like in Italy, Spain and France). We are just "encouraged" to minimize social contact. This is not effective. Many people continue doing what they're doing. Luckily a lot of companies and organizations do take the crisis more serious than our government, and shutdown stuff themselves. But so far, the numbers keep doubing at alarming rates.
2-3 Weeks ago, I learned we have 1150 beds in ICUs in NL.
I did some basic math (like I did in my previous post). We had 50 people in ICU at the time.
My prediction was that beds in ICU in all of NL would be full by end of March.
Yesterday our hospitals warned that they expect all beds in ICUs to be full by end of next week (March 27th).
So I wasn't off very much with my simple math.
Too bad I can't find that post anymore. (Maybe I didn't post it anywhere after all).
lowenz on 20/3/2020 at 14:49
(
https://mobile.twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1240689935557865472)
Nicholas A. Christakis
@NAChristakis
“Seroconversion" in 173 patients appeared for Ab, IgM, & IgG in 11, 12, & 14 days. Presence of antibodies was <40% in first 7d & then rapidly increased to 100%, 94%, & 80% for Ab, IgM, & IgG by 15d. In contrast, viral RNA decreased from 67% before day 7 to 46% in days 15-39. 23/But as I said you die the first week of interstitial pneumonia if the infection (
the expression of the infection) is severe.
So tipically immune system is too late in patients with a bad inflammation response that kills them.
lowenz on 20/3/2020 at 14:52
Alas, as an aside, the decline in titers also means that developing a vaccine for COVID19 may be very challenging, similar to the reasons we do not yet have a vaccine for the common cold (but that is the topic for another thread).
zombe on 20/3/2020 at 15:07
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
The first case in NL was reported 27 February. That's 22 days ago. Divided by 3, that means the number of infected could have doubled 7 times. 2^7 = 128. So we should be around 200 infected today ? In reality, we are at 3000 in NL today.
So here in NL, I see the numbers growing faster than doubling every 3 days.
Detected case count != real infection count. Especially early. Detection can only asymptotically approach the real count. Excessive testing will get it closer and closer but never actually reaching the true value.
You just had a lot of infected walking around without knowing they are infected.
Which is why i asked for testing stats for US a few moments ago. Without that, the case count stats etc are quite useless.
Gryzemuis on 20/3/2020 at 15:10
Of course. We got a bunch of numbers, but we don't know exactly what they mean.
That's why I said (a few times): "simple math".
My simple math is just "wild guestimates".
If anyone has numbers that are more precise, I'm happy to hear them.
But even with those vague numbers, my prediction about ICU beds full in NL is gonna be pretty close.
That's why I think 25M out of 40M infected in 8 weeks is not unrealistic. (When you start at 1000).
If we assume that there are loads of infected that haven't been detected yet (as you correctly mentioned), then those 8 weeks can be even shorter.
jkcerda on 20/3/2020 at 15:19
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
The governor of California has ordered everybody in California to stay the fuck home.
Not sure what the details are, and what the legal details are. But he's serious.
It also seems that the Americans have accepted the fact that within 2 months, the number of infected in California will go from < 1000 infected now to 25 million infected. (FYI, California has 40M people).
Nothing to see here, people. It's just the flu.
Hoax and distraction by the libtards to make Trump look bad.
It will blow over soon.
it's an amazing level of stupid here to a degree, so we are on "lock down" but you can go to the grocery store, walk your dog & go to the laundromat etc, "non essential: businesses are shut down but they have no real way to enforce it.
(
https://www.cisa.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors)
everyone on FB seems to be looking for ways around it SHOULD the cops show up, I am lucky my CO falls under the critical manufacturing sector. but then again IF they start using cock sucking cops to try and enforce this those knuckle draggers don't know what it means. .....
personally I think they are trying to stem the looting that is bound to happen as things get worse in the coming weeks. GOV Newson mentioned 1k fines but cops are not enforcing it yet so WTF?
jkcerda on 20/3/2020 at 15:21
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Of course. We got a bunch of numbers, but we don't know exactly what they mean.
That's why I said (a few times): "simple math".
My simple math is just "wild guestimates".
If anyone has numbers that are more precise, I'm happy to hear them.
But even with those vague numbers, my prediction about ICU beds full in NL is gonna be pretty close.
That's why I think 25M out of 40M infected in 8 weeks is not unrealistic. (When you start at 1000).
If we assume that there are loads of infected that haven't been detected yet (as you correctly mentioned), then those 8 weeks can be even shorter.
I think it is blown way out of proportion to scare people into staying home, look at the morons in FL all there to "party" not giving a shit in the world? being infected does NOT mean you end up in ICU, there are 1000's seemingly infected with very mild symptoms.
jkcerda on 20/3/2020 at 15:45
the thing that could cripple the US HC system is the 120 million cock sucking POS LAWYERS willing to sue because the sky is blue, if DR's turn oxygen thieves away they will face lawsuits because sadly Murika is full of POS M'fers willing to sue over anything that they think will get them some cash & there are a gazillion POS lawyers willing to file suits. 95% of lawyers belong in the bottom of the ocean along with the dip shits they represent.
Gingerbread Man on 20/3/2020 at 15:47
$10 says none of us can actually picture as few as 10 dead bodies in the same room, maybe not that honest to act like a blasé edgelord about hundreds or more.
