Gryzemuis on 17/3/2020 at 15:01
It seems we're doing slightly better in NL. On the other hand, a few days ago it was announced we'll be doing (relatively) fewer tests. So that might explain the slower growth in the last few days. (Also: today we went from 24 deaths to 43 (almost doubling in a day)).
Quote:
Currently we have about 4700 total cases here in the U.S. It's crazy to think that number will likely almost triple in the next 5 days.
Most people don't understand what "exponential" really means. Especially if the exponent isn't 2 (not doubling each day, but doubling each X days). For the last 2 weeks, it was obvious that the number of infected is roughly doubling every 3 days. And yes, that means in 5 days you'll have 3x more infected than today.
Related to that. It was announced this weekend that hospitals are working on increasing the number of bed in ICU from 1150 to 2000 (nationwide). That sounds nice. But if you understand what exponential grow means, you'll understand that those extra beds will buy us only 2 days extra.
Starker on 17/3/2020 at 15:13
And Italy got hit extra hard, because it was hit relatively early and over 20% of its people are above 65 (compared to around 15% in the US). But I guess things in the US are being made worse by the general confusion and every state doing it's own thing and the "this harmless flu thing will blow over soon" attitude quite late into the pandemic.
Renault on 17/3/2020 at 15:18
Another thing to ponder - Italy went on lockdown on the 9th or the 10th. So again, using Dema's chart, this coming weekend we will be at that same point that Italy was when they went on lockdown. Will it happen here too? Things certainly are heading in that direction.
Gryzemuis on 17/3/2020 at 16:00
I think the UK and NL are very close, or have already reached that point. And both their governments refuse to do a real lockdown. Lots of stuff is closed (schools, restaurants, bars, sports, events, etc). But people are still allowed to go outside whenever they like. Unlike Wuhan, Italy and France, who do real lockdowns.
Both UK and NL governments talk about this "herd immunity". I'm still not 100% sure what they mean by that. I expect Trump to follow a similar strategy. I think it means:
1) slow the spread enough so that we have enough hospital beds at all time
2) assume everybody (or at least 70%) gets infected in the course of 1 year
3) the elderly and vulnerable should do real, self-imposed isolation (shifting responsibility from the government to the old and ill themselves)
4) after 1 year, most people will have gotten ill, then recovered, and then they are immune. this is called herd immunity.
5) after 1 year, the number of immune people is so high, the elderly and weak can go outside again, because the risk they get infected is now very low
I don't understand this. (
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19) I call bullshit. How many people do need to be immune for this to work ? This concept of "herd immunity" doesn't work for simple diseases like the measles or other infectious diseases that are still around. And also, if you expect 70% of people to get infected, even when they are outside the risk group (elderly and weak), lots of those will still die. You're not gonna fight that ? You're not even gonna try ? Just accept a few (tens of) thousands of relatively young and healthy people to die ?
Also, we don't know if people who gotten ill, or just infected, really become immune. There are stories from China (and Italy too, I think) about people who are declared recovered, who gotten infected (or ill) again later.
Is it a coincidence that both the UK and Dutch government are right-wing conservative governments (where economy is more important than people) ?
I understand how "herd immunity" helps when 98% of the population is vaccinated against a certain disease. The remaining 2% have a real low chance of getting infected. But covid-19 is completely different: they are talking about 60%-70% of people infected (much lower than the 95%+ I heard before), we don't have a vaccine, we don't know if people can get reinfected, we don't know how many "recovered" people still carry the virus and are contagious. Imho herd immunity for covid-19 is complete bullshit, as long as we don't have a vaccine. Our government is fucking us over.
Can someone explain why the idea of Herd Immunity makes any sense ?
lowenz on 17/3/2020 at 16:30
Quote Posted by Starker
And Italy got hit extra hard, because it was hit relatively early and over 20% of its people are above 65 (compared to around 15% in the US). But I guess things in the US are being made worse by the general confusion and every state doing it's own thing and the "this harmless flu thing will blow over soon" attitude quite late into the pandemic.
Yes, we pay the tribute to Father Time.
lowenz on 17/3/2020 at 16:33
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Can someone explain why the idea of Herd Immunity makes any sense ?
In this case there's NO immunity 'cause:
1) Coronaviruses don't give immunity after the infection (see "Cold").
2) Actually Coronaviruses seem to
NOT wake up the immune system at allThe death comes from the inflammation related lung damage, it's why some persons die and some have no symptoms at all! It's NOT the virus the direct cause of the syndrome, it's the DERANGED inflammation process in response!
And it's why we're testing (Italy and China) this: (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tocilizumab)
So don't get too much hope about a vaccine. Hope that we could treat the interstitial pneumonia that your own body induces and let the infection run dry naturally.
Before
having 10.000 individuals in ICU for 2 weeks! (here in Lombardy we are NOW @800-900! And every day we're building new intensive care beds but we need more and more and more)
lowenz on 17/3/2020 at 16:44
Man, this is surreal, like a bad dream. Elder people around here are dropping like flies and their younger caregivers (50 yo) are in ICU after getting infected by them!
Medics and nurses too.
heywood on 17/3/2020 at 20:57
Can somebody explain the UK's strategy?
With COVID-19, there's no vaccine coming for a while, and we don't know how long immunity lasts after infection. Even if it's on the long side, like SARS, you need 60-80% of the population to be infected and recover before herd immunity starts to provide protection. So by the time the virus has spread widely enough for herd immunity to be a factor, haven't you already infected most of the people you were hoping protect in the first place?
Also, what if you take this risk and immune response ends up something like influenza, where immunity after infection doesn't last long enough to prevent the next seasonal outbreak, and vaccine isn't all that effective?
And how can a "delay" strategy work without effective social distancing, including closures? We now have several counter-examples suggesting it can't.
Genuine questions here. It seems batshit.
