Renzatic on 14/3/2020 at 07:44
I've been watching Cinemassacre for years, man. I know all about the AVGN. :D
SubJeff on 14/3/2020 at 09:29
Quote Posted by Starker
Well, except countries where he has his golf courses.
Romania, Bulgaria and Albania?
Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Who knew?!
Starker on 14/3/2020 at 11:56
Watched another session of US public health officials testifying before the House and congresswoman Katie Porter extracted a promise out of the CDC director to provide free testing to any US citizen in what looked like a pretty intense verbal waterboarding: (
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277-1/federal-health-officials-testify-coronavirus-outbreak-response&start=4496)
It only remains to be seen if there's any substance to that promise and if there will be enough tests. Why the US refused the WHO test at the start of the whole thing is just perplexing.
demagogue on 14/3/2020 at 12:52
There was a NYTimes article that described the early testing issue in the US. I can't find it just now. There was already a program for flu testing, and already in mid-January the group doing that wanted to extend the scope of it to Corona testing, and the two major roadblocks were (1) scope of consent and (2) the clinics weren't designated as laboratories for testing, and it takes weeks to get the designation. (There was also the part about picking the right test and verifying its accuracy; but that's an independent challenge.)
So they were pushing for emergency exemptions, and that's where they were getting resistance from CDC because they didn't have a sufficient basis for it. And then in late Feb or early March, watching what was happening abroad, they broke the rule and started testing anyway and were getting positive hits by some people who hadn't been to a risk zone, so it could only mean they were 2nd gen vectors (infected by other infected people that got it from abroad), which means there should already be a relatively sizable infected population out there, and that's what set the alarm bells off and started the process moving to where we are now.
The US admin culture is litigious; people get worried about slipping on rules that make them subject to massive liability. That can be positive sometimes when it forces people to take some extra precautions, but is situations like this it makes people uncomfortable slipping the rules without some kind of CYA (cover your ass) assurances beforehand. That was my understanding of it.
Tony_Tarantula on 14/3/2020 at 13:58
Quote Posted by Starker
Forcing people to travel illegally where you can't screen them is a good move?
The people who can afford flights mostly aren't being "forced" to travel into the US.
By the way everyone in the National Guard has been activating including some people who are on Individual Ready Reserve status. I'm hearing from multiple, independent sources now that they're planning on implementing a complete lockdown/martial law in the US beginning about a week from now.
Quote:
Watched another session of US public health officials testifying before the House and congresswoman Katie Porter extracted a promise out of the CDC director to provide free testing to any US citizen in what looked like a pretty intense verbal waterboarding: (
https://www.c-span.org/video/?470277...nse&start=4496)
It only remains to be seen if there's any substance to that promise and if there will be enough tests. Why the US refused the WHO test at the start of the whole thing is just perplexing.
It isn't a matter of "just promise tests and it happens!". There's enormous logistical challenges involved in producing the amount of medical tests at a time when our supply chain is drastically impaired because we're dependent on China to produce key components....
Which, by the way, China is now blaming the pandemic on the US and is threatening to cut off all exports of medical supplies.
Inline Image:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/338064045808549888/688103265602502722/961.pngdemagogue on 14/3/2020 at 14:07
We're two weeks behind Italy. Here's what's about to happen (absent serious controls).
Inline Image:
https://i.imgur.com/kSke1Pw.jpgI think it was already mentioned above, but the R0 (how many people 1 person infects) is about 3 people, and the doubling rate (how many days it takes to double the number of cases) is just over 3 days. That works out from 1 person to 1 million in 60+ days (of which the US is already 12 days into) and 7 billion people in 90+ days (if left unimpeded).
Starker on 14/3/2020 at 14:25
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
The people who can afford flights mostly aren't being "forced" to travel into the US.
For once and for all, learn to read. Who said anything about flights? The last I checked, the US also has a land border as well as a coastline. Also, completely closing down the border is not possible even in North Korea, what makes you think it is possible in the US, never mind the virus already being there.
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
It isn't a matter of "just promise tests and it happens!". There's enormous logistical challenges involved in producing the amount of medical tests at a time when our supply chain is drastically impaired because we're dependent on China to produce key components....
The WHO tests had already been shipped to nearly 60 countries by the end of February. Seemed to manage the logistics just fine.
Or maybe don't call it the Chinese virus, because it's fucking idiotic and will do nothing but promote xenophobia and discrimination.
heywood on 14/3/2020 at 15:10
Quote Posted by demagogue
There was a NYTimes article that described the early testing issue in the US. I can't find it just now. There was already a program for flu testing, and already in mid-January the group doing that wanted to extend the scope of it to Corona testing, and the two major roadblocks were (1) scope of consent and (2) the clinics weren't designated as laboratories for testing, and it takes weeks to get the designation. (There was also the part about picking the right test and verifying its accuracy; but that's an independent challenge.)
So they were pushing for emergency exemptions, and that's where they were getting resistance from CDC because they didn't have a sufficient basis for it. And then in late Feb or early March, watching what was happening abroad, they broke the rule and started testing anyway and were getting positive hits by some people who hadn't been to a risk zone, so it could only mean they were 2nd gen vectors (infected by other infected people that got it from abroad), which means there should already be a relatively sizable infected population out there, and that's what set the alarm bells off and started the process moving to where we are now.
The US admin culture is litigious; people get worried about slipping on rules that make them subject to massive liability. That can be positive sometimes when it forces people to take some extra precautions, but is situations like this it makes people uncomfortable slipping the rules without some kind of CYA (cover your ass) assurances beforehand. That was my understanding of it.
Very on point.
In our health care system, there is very little reward for somebody who takes a risk, steps out of their lane, and saves people. But there is great punishment for somebody who takes a risk that doesn't pan out. Even when there is no litigation, complaints can ruin a career.
Here's an anecdote, not COVID-19 related:
A couple of my close friends are primary care physicians. Even after getting into private practice, they would take shifts at the ER to keep their skills sharp. And they both stopped because it was putting their career at risk. The way they related it to me was that you have to go precisely by the book these days, follow procedures, don't exercise *any* professional judgment. That includes insisting on tests if the patient meets certain written criteria, even if you feel sure they're unnecessary. Also, admitting ER patients to the hospital if they meet certain criteria, even if it seems unnecessary or they would be better off at home. And most importantly, you have to document *every* little detail, so typing took most of their shift time. It's all about covering your ass in case a complaint is filed, which is most common in emergency medicine. The way they were trained to work the ER during their student and internship days is not acceptable any longer.
One of the two was actually reprimanded by the state medical board and placed on probation for this: A woman pregnant in her 3rd trimester came into the ER presenting vaginal bleeding. Based on the frequency and volume of blood and absence of any other risk factors, he diagnosed it as normal spotting, which can occur at any time during pregnancy, and sent her home. In a primary case practice, this happens all the time (or so I'm told, I'm not a doctor). The patient, believing that any spotting after the first trimester was a problem, filed a complaint with the state medical board. He was reprimanded for not following emergency care recommendations by letter, including not conducting a full pelvic exam, not ordering an ultrasound, and not admitting the patient so that a blood sample could be obtained.
Having that publicly available black mark on his record cost him some business in his private practice, but the main reason why he stopped was that he couldn't afford insurance to continue. My other friend is unscathed by the ER, but stopped working shifts because he saw the rise in complaints, and saw that hospitals were not standing by their doctors. It became a situation where both doctors perceived there's only risk and zero reward for doing a better job. If anybody complains, nobody has your back, not your supervisors, the hospital, review boards, all their lawyers, or your insurance company.
Now, regarding COVID-19, neither of the two friends knows anything more about what's happening than we do. There's hardly any information flowing down, and they STILL can't test anyone who hasn't been traced to a confirmed case.
nickie on 14/3/2020 at 16:15
I don't know whether this has been posted already but I read this morning that (
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/jack-ma-coronavirus-test-kits-128522) Jack Ma was coming to the rescue and I admit to laughing, a lot.
Quote:
Asia's richest man announced his intention on Friday to ship 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks to the U.S. in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic.
Jack Ma's charitable foundation and his China-based company's foundation, the Alibaba Foundation, have also sourced and donated supplies to other countries being hit by the virus, including Japan, Korea, Italy, Iran and Spain.
We've found, at least in Wales, that it can take a couple of days for confirmed cases to be published so we're grateful to be included in the Welsh grapevine. 100% accurate so far. We're also lucky to be isolated and sometimes snowed in so we tend to keep a couple of months worth of food (and loo roll) around and we have our own spring so don't need to worry about water.
I'm not religious so I can't say you're in my prayers but you are all in my thoughts. Keep well.
