lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 14:06
1) Yes, the cold weather is an ally for every pathogen that searches for your lungs! Normal cold (sneezing) is caused by a rhinovirus or a coronavirus. This coronavirus in particular acts like the 2003 SARS one, it's why it's dangerous (less lethal but very contagious so the elder people are at higher risk to be infected and to develop the severe form of the direct pneumonia until the vaccine is ready)
2) virus doesn't give a shit to social condition, not because it brings "justice" :p but because if R0 is high 1 person can create 10 infected ones just spreading it in a small room/ambient talking. Think about a car or a bus.
lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 14:09
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
You read everywhere that only the elderly, the weak, and people with respiratory diseases are at risk. But we've learned that in China doctors and nurses died too. I would think that doctors and nurses must have excellent immune systems, better than average. Because of their jobs. So if even they die, how vulnerable are people outside those 3 mentioned risk groups ? I haven't seen any statistics yet.
Risk for medical staff the other people don't have:
1)
multiple re-infections question: are they possible? How much the immunoglobulines remain in the bloodstream? Nobody can answer now!
1.1)
bacterial overinfectionDeath cause in young people:
2)
bad/heavy inflammatory response in some young ones too can kills, NOT the virus "directly". It's just like a body self-bombardment
lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 14:13
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
What is the normal annual death rate ? Suppose average max age is 80 years old. Then 1.25% of people should die each year. Most countries have more young than old people (still). So let's say the annual mortality rate is ~1%. Because of the Corona virus, this year (and next year) it might be 3-5x as high.
Dont' think about deaths, think about the hospital resources starvation (intensive care units @collapse): THAT is the problem, now, here in North Italy hospitals.
And no, you can't move around a
biological hazard for miles (kilometers :p) from the red zone(s) searching for some free chambers, it's too much dangerous for the region you're going to
All the red/orange zone hospitals (public and private) are converting general medicine sections to pneumonia treatment sections. And reanimation sections for the ones who can't breath autonomously.
lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 14:30
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
In the US poor people have less or no health care, are they gonna see a doctor or even admit that they might have the corona virus ?
Don't forget the more cynical question: "What insurance company can give you support if you've got a virus born only 3 months ago, that can act like SARS virus, and nobody knows if it can go quiet in some organs and then returning after some years so
you'll become a global threat level infection spreader just talking to other people" ?
Where are the "Free Market solves everything!!111" zealots (Tea Party and nuts alike) ? :p
Oh yes, they're praying for a vaccine with their
INVISIBLE HANDS :D
Gryzemuis on 3/3/2020 at 14:33
Lowenz, do you know how many of the (2036 - 52 =) 1984 cases have been official declared as "recovered" ?
(And yes, I understand they people who have been declared recovered might still carry the virus. Or might get reinfected again. I'm just curious how many people recovered enough so they don't have any symptoms anymore).
lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 14:40
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
Lowenz, do you know how many of the (2036 - 52 =) 1984 cases have been official declared as "recovered" ?
(And yes, I understand they people who have been declared recovered might still carry the virus. Or might get reinfected again. I'm just curious how many people recovered enough so they don't have any symptoms anymore).
A very little fraction for now.
'cause you must wait 4 days since the symptoms remission to check with the last test.
And then you'll be declared "recovered".
lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 14:55
In Italia frenano i contagi: lunedì l'incremento dei malati è stato del 16% (258 casi in più) a fronte dell'aumento del 50% registrato il giorno prima. Di questi, inoltre, il 50% è asintomatico (o con sintemi lievi) e in isolamento domiciliare, il 40% è ricoverato con sintomi e solo il 10% in terapia intensiva. "Un dato confortante" dice il commissario Angelo Borrelli sottolineando che si tratta di una percentuale che ricalca il dato complessivo: su 1.835 malati, 927 sono in isolamento nella propria casa, 742 ricoverati con sintomi e 166 in terapia intensiva. Sono 149 i guariti, 52 i decessi.
-> 149 recovered
We're going to use the old Milan military hospital to "stock" :p "in recovery" people from other hospitals.
Hoping they're actually (near) virus-free......and there isn't any "re-infection" chance.
lowenz on 3/3/2020 at 15:07
-> 166 in intensive care units in 2 weeks (balance from entrances AND exits)
Only for pneumonia Covid-19 related/SARS2 induced
Only here in Lombardy (Lodi, Cremona, Bergamo where I live)
Think about that.
And we got the best public health care in Europe, all the people over 65 well checked and cared of.