henke on 31/12/2021 at 10:52
Quote Posted by Thirith
That sucks, henke. Fingers crossed that it's just a cold, or if not, that it's a mild case.
It was indeed just a cold, test came back negative! :)
faetal on 31/12/2021 at 17:34
Quote Posted by SD
Could have pulled you up on a number of things...
Just post counter-arguments with good sources.
Saying "I could have pulled you up on a number of things" is pointless dick-swinging, backed by nothing, and seems to imply that you have some authority on this topic, which you clearly don't, going by your previous contributions to the thread.
demagogue on 31/12/2021 at 23:53
Congrats on the good result, Henke. (Almost said positive =L ).
For understandable reasons I'm curious about Omicron and long covid since I don't want to go through the ordeal I went through in April 2020 again, nor see masses of others subjected to it.
Also worth noting that two other members of my family had surprise heart attacks this last year following good physicals (fortunately none of them fatal or life-changing), which is how my ordeal started, and which suggests there's a genetic component to it because ... I mean even granting it's anecdotal, it seems like small odds to be coincidental, including the fact that it comes as a package of other symptoms. It could be conflated with other covariant things though, too, like the change in lifestyle. But it's still unsettling any way you slice it.
Cipheron on 1/1/2022 at 06:41
I noticed some political stuff pointing to the case spikes in California and New York state then mocking people saying DeSantis did a bad job with the Covid response in Florida.
However here are the raw 2021 numbers, Dec 31 2020 deaths to Dec 31 2021 deaths, per capita, top 4 states:
(
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/)
California: 76739 - 26164 = 50575 deaths / 39,512,223 people = 128 / 100k
New York: 60011 - 38030 = 21981 deaths / 19,453,561 people = 112 / 100k
Texas: 76137 - 28279 = 47858 deaths / 28,995,881 people = 165 / 100k
Florida 62480 - 23387 = 39093 deaths / 21,477,737 people = 182 / 100k
... so yeah, 2021 was harder hit for Florida especially. The "excess" excess deaths due to the specific policies in Florida were at least 60 people per 100k population, so I'd put DeSantis' specific policies as responsible for 12500 deaths.
Yeah, they point to the low death rate in Florida and Texas *now*, but totally ignore the massive death spike that occurred in those two states from August to October. A lot of the vulnerable people clearly died already, contributing to the "lower" death rate now. Keep in mind that no similar autumn death spike occurred in either California or New York.
faetal on 1/1/2022 at 11:28
Quote Posted by henke
It was indeed just a cold, test came back negative! :)
Nice!
SD on 1/1/2022 at 15:58
Quote Posted by faetal
Just post counter-arguments with good sources.
Saying "I could have pulled you up on a number of things" is pointless dick-swinging, backed by nothing, and seems to imply that you have some authority on this topic, which you clearly don't, going by your previous contributions to the thread.
Because the post I was replying to was fully sourced, wasn't it.
Admittedly it's a long time since I graduated university at the age of 20 with a degree in bioscience.
I certainly won't apologise for being consistently correct throughout this thread.
Starker on 1/1/2022 at 17:20
I wasn't the one making claims as fact, was I? I said there's no reason to believe the variant is more transmissible / less virulent, because here are good alternative explanations to why it wouldn't necessarily be the case. You're the one claiming the increased transmissibility / lower virulence of Omicron as a fact.
Also, you are correct that there is no need for you to apologise for being constantly correct, especially as you're the one with the constant bad takes in the thread, starting from "masks are fascism and don't work" to "there will be no second wave" to "the virus will run out of low-hanging fruit soon" to "mostly old people are dying, so we should just let them" to confident claims about how a 19th century flu in Russia was a specific coronavirus. What, did you go exhume bodies in Syberia and take lung tissue samples?
Starker on 1/1/2022 at 18:06
Btw, here's a recent TWiV clinical update on COVID where they talk about a study indicating that the increased cases are in large part due to immune evasion, not the virus becoming more transmissible (16:45-20:00):
[video=youtube;ozI1U6csH8c]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozI1U6csH8c&t=1005s[/video]
Link to timestamp: (
https://youtu.be/ozI1U6csH8c?t=1001)
faetal on 1/1/2022 at 21:14
Quote Posted by SD
Because the post I was replying to was fully sourced, wasn't it.
Admittedly it's a long time since I graduated university at the age of 20 with a degree in bioscience.
I certainly won't apologise for being consistently correct throughout this thread.
Having an undergraduate degree in bioscience doesn't make you an authority, it allows you to say that you understand some science (how much would depend on your grade, how long ago and which university). If you have a masters or a PhD in a topic like virology, epidemiology, immunology, medicine, physiology, etc.., or have worked in a related discipline for some time; then you might be at about the point where you have the chops to start talking authoritatively.
You've been consistently cocky throughout this thread while posting things which are either outright wrong (saying definitively that the pandemic was winding down over a year ago based on a single modelling exercise from a zoology group), or so basic as to essentially be common knowledge ("hi guys, coronaviruses eventually become colds"). This is remedial stuff and you act like you can school others? Your posts remind me of the numerous shitty science reports I spent countless hours writing red comments in the margin of when I taught undergrads. You can't be bothered to put the work in and think that sounding over-confident will somehow suffice.
People with five times your education don't assert opinions on topics this complex with the swagger you seem to have convinced yourself you've earned.
Posting a link supporting something you already believe in does not make you Mr Science. Posting sources is the
bare minimum requirement for scientific debate.
If you want to make the case that your points are irrefutable, then you have to provide
quality sources, which are corroborated, show the right study design and statistical methods, support the
specific points you make (not just parts of the broad strokes) and show why competing ideas are the weaker ones. In the absence of that (it is after all just a discussion thread, not a journal article), just drop the fucking sneering tone and the unwavering belief that opposing ideas are wrong just because they aren't your preferred ones.
SD on 2/1/2022 at 02:47
Quote Posted by Starker
I wasn't the one making claims as fact, was I? I said there's no reason to believe the variant is more transmissible / less virulent, because here are good alternative explanations to why it wouldn't necessarily be the case. You're the one claiming the increased transmissibility / lower virulence of Omicron as a fact.
Also, you are correct that there is no need for you to apologise for being constantly correct, especially as you're the one with the constant bad takes in the thread, starting from "masks are fascism and don't work" to "there will be no second wave" to "the virus will run out of low-hanging fruit soon" to "mostly old people are dying, so we should just let them" to confident claims about how a 19th century flu in Russia was a specific coronavirus. What, did you go exhume bodies in Syberia and take lung tissue samples?
You said there was no reason to believe, and I gave you some very good reasons. I thought you should be aware of them. And of course the real world example of people steadfastly refusing to die from Omicron, the most powerful evidence of all.
There's still no actual evidence that masks have any real effect, what can I say. You'd expect to see some correlation between deaths and mask mandates if they worked, wouldn't you. My comment about second waves was that a second wave had been predicted many times after we opened up, and that it had failed to materialise, which was true. I did not make that statement about old people, and I'd kindly ask you not to misrepresent me.
No, I didn't excavate any bodies, scientists believe that coronavirus to be responsible for that outbreak. Whether it was or wasn't responsible for that specific outbreak isn't hugely important. This coronavirus is just doing what previous coronaviruses have done before it. Burned brightly for a short time before fizzling out.
Quote Posted by faetal
You've been consistently cocky throughout this thread while posting things which are either outright wrong (saying definitively that the pandemic was winding down over a year ago based on a single modelling exercise from a zoology group), or so basic as to essentially be common knowledge ("hi guys, coronaviruses eventually become colds"). This is remedial stuff and you act like you can school others? Your posts remind me of the numerous shitty science reports I spent countless hours writing red comments in the margin of when I taught undergrads. You can't be bothered to put the work in and think that sounding over-confident will somehow suffice.
I'm sorry you've taken my scoffing at the many (invariably faulty) doomsday predictions we've had to be cockiness. My tolerance for this nonsense is thin at the best of times. Funny that you don't pull anyone else up for their predictions, just me.
There have been hardly any excess deaths in the UK in almost a year. Many other countries have fared much better than that. I'm not going to pretend that people are dying just so this institutionalised sociopathy we've had for two years can be prolongued even further.
Amazing how many people aren't aware of this "common knowledge" about how coronaviruses become relatively harmless colds. Maybe you'd be better off alerting them to this "remedial stuff" then they wouldn't be believing they're going to be living this nightmare for the rest of their lives.
As ever, I am eternally baffled by the affection people seem to have for the last two years, and the desire they have to keep it going for as long as possible. If I'm in a minority in wanting it to end, so be it. If people want to wear hazmat gear to go to the supermarket or spend the rest of their lives cooped up behind the four walls of their home, they're perfectly free to keep doing that.
