demagogue on 7/12/2021 at 11:27
Or more specifically, there's been a whole string of hard core viruses coming out of China since the 1950s that's only been accelerating since the 2000s, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, SARS, H5N1, H7N9, Covid19, then you have things like avian flu.
And as I understood it from my research project last year they all had a similar pattern, with the wet markets, the secrecy & minimizing in the early days of an outbreak ... The government got criticized for all kinds of regulatory failures, then it happens again with all the same criticisms, and it keeps happening. There has to be a way to better see reforms through.
I read a article more pessimistic about omicron today. But I'd rather just wait for a consensus opinion to emerge in a next few weeks or months.
faetal on 7/12/2021 at 13:01
It's an encroachment issue. There wouldn't usually be much opportunity for viruses which mainly hang out in bats, to cross the species barrier without things like using bats for meat, or capturing and selling local wildlife who live in the vicinity of affected bats.
We've had SARS, MERS and now COVID-19 in the space of 2 decades. I recommend not even reading about henipaviruses and their outbreaks in SE Asia if you want to have a nice day.
Starker on 7/12/2021 at 22:24
Quote Posted by demagogue
I read a article more pessimistic about omicron today. But I'd rather just wait for a consensus opinion to emerge in a next few weeks or months.
I've been watching some virologists at TWIV and elsewhere talk about Omicron and here's what has come up so far...
Where does it come from?We don't know and are unlikely to ever find out. Might be from an animal via spillback or an immunocompromised person or just passed through multiple people (there's (
https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009929) a paper where they did in-vitro selection of Remdesivir resistance for the virus and a large amount of mutations in the spike arose quite spontaneously without any selection).
Were the travel bans to South Africa effective?No, and they were actually counterproductive, since it made it much harder for local labs to get reagents.
What do the mutations do?Nobody really knows and whoever is telling you otherwise is talking out of their ass. There are mutations at regions where antibodies bind to and this is a cause for concern, but the overall effect of these mutations is unknown.
Is it more pathogenic/virulent than the other variants?We don't know and we can't say until there's more reliable data than just a handful of anecdotes.
Is it more transmissible than the other variants?We don't know and it's practically impossible to determine with any kind of certainty.
Is it more fit than the other variants?Possibly. It seems to be displacing a lot of the other variants in South Africa currently, but it's still wait and see.
Is it able to evade the immune response of people who have been vaccinated?The vaccines should remain quite effective against this and future variants for some time. There have been a lot of reasons given for this and some of the talk went way above my head, but from what I've gathered, due to somatic hypermutation you are making antibodies against even variants that don't exist yet and even if the virus evades B-cells, T-cells should be picking up the slack, because T-cell epitopes haven't changed much.
And too many changes to the spike can make the virus less able or even unable to bind ACE2 and less fit overall. There was (
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04005-0) a
pseudovirus* experiment where they mutated the spike against any antibody they could think of and the evidence suggests that the virus became attenuated as a result. Also, when they put it in blood plasma of people who had been both infected and vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine, it was still neutralised, which suggests vaccinations should offer protection to a substantial variation of the virus.
* In before anyone goes, "OMG, Omicron escaped from a lab!"
faetal on 8/12/2021 at 10:50
Quote Posted by Starker
even if the virus evades B-cells, T-cells should be picking up the slack, because T-cell epitopes haven't changed much.
There is a fairly big difference mind - B-cells chuck out antibodies to block the virus's point of entry and / or label it for phagocytosis and disposal before it can do much damage.
Effector T cells destroy infected cells, which contributes to your symptoms in a pretty big way.
Starker on 8/12/2021 at 15:06
I think the primary concern was whether vaccine-conferred immunity would still prevent severe illness and death in that case and the consensus seemed to be that it would.
Azaran on 8/12/2021 at 15:57
Quote Posted by Starker
* In before anyone goes, "OMG, Omicron escaped from a lab!"
Nah, if it's mild, they'll say the Illuminati accomplished their great reset mission, and have released the Omicron as the finale to end the 'plandemic'. New World Order achieved
lowenz on 8/12/2021 at 16:47
Quote Posted by Azaran
Nah, if it's mild, they'll say the Illuminati accomplished their great reset mission, and have released the Omicron as the finale to end the 'plandemic'. New World Order achieved
These Illuminati really love the good ending! Such sweethearts! :D :D :D
faetal on 8/12/2021 at 16:48
Quote Posted by Starker
I think the primary concern was whether vaccine-conferred immunity would still prevent severe illness and death in that case and the consensus seemed to be that it would.
Just saying that picking up the slack isn't what B and T cells do for each other.
But yes, main thing is that the vaccine is saving millions of lives.
I remember during the second big wave in France, I was checking the daily stats in our track & trace app and the numbers were horrible, thousands of new cases per day, R value consistently above 1.5 and ICU occupancy going from 50% to 75% to 95% to 105%!
Genuinely scary times - my brother in law is a doctor and his entire personality changed to the extent where he began to resemble a war veteran with PTSD.
This recent wave, all of the numbers are bad except for the ICU occupancy, which is at 49% having been at 25% until very recently. Still not great, but I'd bet money that there has been a demographic shift too, with most of the severity focused in the very elderly (sub-optimal immune competency), the immune compromised and those with underlying conditions (COPD, asthma, diabetes etc).
My BIL seems to be gradually getting back to being his usual self too.
For as long as the vaccines hold the line against mutations, I would say that the period of worry is definitely waning for those who are vaccinated.
Starker on 9/12/2021 at 01:00
Ah, I certainly didn't mean to suggest that T-cells will suddenly start picking up B-cells' function. I meant that they will quite likely still be providing some level of immunity, even if B-cells start losing their effectiveness. Yes, they will destroy infected cells and cause symptoms and don't prevent people from getting infected in the first place, but if they kill off the infection fast enough, you'll be no worse to wear.
Here is one article that describes some of what I'm talking about: (
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00367-7)
faetal on 9/12/2021 at 13:59
I'm in agreement that level of immunity will be sustained in a compensatory fashion, but the outcomes can be quite different, since antibody binding neutralises virus before it infects and T cells destroy your own cells after they are infected, which contributes to the disease pathophysiology (the bit can harm / kill). Not only directly, but can trigger things like downstream inflammatory processes when destroyed cells release their contents into the surrounding tissue.
You're talking pure immunology, I'm talking disease. So I'd not be so sure about the "no worse for wear" part.
Still miles better than no vaccine, but a drop in antibody effectiveness will likely alter outcomes - though I've no idea by how much, or even if lethality will go up. Might just be a nastier experience
