Starker on 26/11/2021 at 18:00
Quote:
Scientists still have much to learn about the variant, but say they are very worried about it.
I've been listening to a virology podcast and the scientists there weren't worried about it at all and said that there's no indication the amino acid changes are of any importance.
Azaran on 26/11/2021 at 18:36
Quote Posted by Starker
I've been listening to a virology podcast and the scientists there weren't worried about it at all and said that there's no indication the amino acid changes are of any importance.
Hopefully that's true. Delta turned out to not be as bad, and the original vaccines still work, so there's hope
Starker on 26/11/2021 at 20:04
There's no reason to fear otherwise in this case. New variants are going to be coming all the time, because that's how viruses work -- they always mutate and change and produce new variants, even within the same person. And our immune systems are used to that and, once primed by a vaccine or an infection, produce different variations of antibodies to predict variants of the virus that they have even never seen. Rather than being concerned about the number of changes to the spike protein, like all the newspaper articles are, for some reason, it's far more important where the mutations occur.
Also, if there is going to be a new variant that the vaccines can't handle all that well, now that we have a vaccine, we can account for these changes and get an updated vaccine ready in record speed. Not to mention there are finally antivirals coming -- potentially a big help in countries which have healthcare systems working well enough, so that people can get rapidly tested and treatments prescribed in time.
There's still a lot of work to be done, but I'd say things are finally starting to look up.
zombe on 28/11/2021 at 02:41
Quote Posted by Azaran
Hopefully that's true. Delta turned out to not be as bad, and the original vaccines still work, so there's hope
On the other hand ...
So far there is grounds for concern.
The new (Omicron) variant seems (unverified, probably false pet theory that is floating around, but whatever - not terribly relevant whether it is true or not) to have been traced back to an immune-compromised person where the virus was essentially forced to find a form that works while the stunted immune system continued its half-assed-but-correct antibody production. Lots of changes in spike protein. Currently not known which of the changes and to what extent are affecting the resulting protein. Reminder: the spike is the primary thing the immune system can detect and target (as far as i know the virus does not add anything else to the infected/virus cell surface that is not present in normal cells also).
The new variant:
* Seems to out-compete Delta variant and does that faster than Delta did (it took months for Delta to essentially eradicate all other variants). However, the numbers are still low and there is a small chance it is not as effective as it seems currently.
* No idea how much it escapes immunization (vaccines and otherwise). This is worrying and is being focused on since this one messed with the spike protein a lot (Delta did not).
* No idea whether it makes people more sick. There is hope that it might not - there is selection pressure towards milder variants. And if the pet theory is correct then mildness would have been quite beneficial to not kill off the lab (literally or figuratively) before it can comfortably spread.
In short: we just do not know yet, but there are some grounds for worry and closing the borders to slow it down till we do might be warranted.
Best case scenario: severity of the disease is much milder - essentially turning the virus into involuntary administered mass vaccination.
lowenz on 28/11/2021 at 06:37
You got to check the OTHER proteins to worry or not about lethality and how they can push into an overdrive the inflammatory component of the immune response (still the spike protein itselft - well, the complete virus external surface - can do it or at least participate to it).
Cipheron on 28/11/2021 at 23:05
Omicron seems kinda wacky compared to previous strains. I'm hopeful that this one is mutated enough that it's lost some of the bite
(
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/doctor-shares-the-unusual-but-mild-symptoms-of-omicron/news-story/ee775571363a9739d94efaf76c1ff2d4)
Quote:
Dr Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who issued an alert about the Omicron variant B.1.1.529, said from her observations the symptoms are usually “mild” in healthy people.
...
“Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before,”
...
While one common symptom of Covid-19 has always been a loss of taste and smell, none of Dr Coetzee's patients experienced this.
“It presents mild disease with symptoms being sore muscles and tiredness for a day or two [and] not feeling well,” Dr Coetzee said.
...
“We had one very interesting case, a kid, about six years old, with a temperature and a very high pulse rate, and I wondered if I should admit her,” Dr Coetzee said.
“But when I followed up two days later, she was so much better.”
So far all these symptoms are normal for general virus exposure or even vaccine exposure. Which is promising that this is actually a weakened strain which is going to out-compete the previous lethal strains. I'm hopeful here.
Part of the explanation of *why* milder strains win out is because of natural selection. A virus wants to get in, infect just the *right* tissues that allow it to spread, then send out the maximum amount of viral particles before the immune system has time to respond.
If the virus infects other tissues that don't facilitate spread, then that's less optimal - it provokes more of an immune response and the virus isn't focusing on the mechanism of spread. So viruses rely on some amount of stealth here to get the most spread out before the immune system kicks its ass.
demagogue on 29/11/2021 at 02:08
It worked for Spanish flu. I saw some articles where experts were debating if coronavirus is going to follow that model. There were apparently some technical reasons that complicated the answer (beyond my pay-grade in immunology, which is to say I don't know jack to have a valid opinion on it XD). But it would be much better if a non-lethal & milder variant drove the lethal strains out of business of course.
Azaran on 29/11/2021 at 19:40
Quote Posted by demagogue
It worked for Spanish flu. I saw some articles where experts were debating if coronavirus is going to follow that model. There were apparently some technical reasons that complicated the answer (beyond my pay-grade in immunology, which is to say I don't know jack to have a valid opinion on it XD). But it would be much better if a non-lethal & milder variant drove the lethal strains out of business of course.
Best case scenario, we end up with another cold virus, albeit more contagious, I can live with that. Fingers crossed
Starker on 29/11/2021 at 20:14
From what I've gathered, quite a few scientists seem to think that due to evolutionary pressures it will eventually become the fifth coronavirus causing a portion of the common colds. And there's some speculation about how the four mild ones we currently have might have been more aggressive at some point in the past.
