Cipheron on 9/11/2021 at 09:56
Quote Posted by Starker
it's also a bit more complex than excess deaths = number of COVID deaths.
excess deaths is mostly handy for the overall scorecard. Locking down prevents Covid but it should also prevent a whole lot of other things too.
However, comparing that to known Covid cases can also rule out whether many cases are being conflated as Covid, as some people claim. For example other major categories of deaths didn't noticeably change in the USA between 2020-2021, so there's no evidence of what some conspiracy people are claiming, that doctors label all deaths as Covid because they get some sort of profit or bounty from that.
Starker on 9/11/2021 at 10:15
Well, people like that are a lost cause anyway. As the master of satire once said, "You cannot reason a person out of a position he did not reason himself into in the first place."
Starker on 11/11/2021 at 03:15
Quote:
(
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-manteca-california-san-francisco-health-b7765df4780b747f5e7e9b78a63a7ec5)
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A police officer who was placed on leave for missing the city of San Francisco's deadline to be inoculated has died after being stricken by COVID-19, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.
Officer Jack Nyce, 46, tested positive on Nov. 2 and died Saturday at a hospital in Manteca, his wife, Melissa Nyce, told the newspaper Monday.
The Chronicle said Melissa Nyce declined to say whether her husband was vaccinated but the vice president of the San Francisco Police Officers Association, Lt. Tracy McCray, said Jack Nyce was on a 30-day stint of paid administrative leave because he had not received the vaccination required by the city.
The death comes as mandates for government employee vaccinations are seeing some push-back.
The San Francisco Police Department said last week that as many as 70 sworn and civilian workers had been placed on leave for not meeting a Nov. 1 vaccination deadline. A press release said that as of Nov. 2, 97.5% of department employees were fully vaccinated.
Any officers who remain unvaccinated by Nov. 13 will be placed on unpaid administrative leave until the San Francisco Police Commission convenes a hearing.
Jack Nyce was a 17-year employee of the department.
“He loved being a cop,” his widow said.
In the US, COVID has been the leading cause of death among police officers by a huge margin, far surpassing things like gunfire.
faetal on 11/11/2021 at 15:51
Moral of the story - if you think your basic understanding of a very complex topic is enough to boldly contradict expert consensus, it's the Dunning-Kruger talking.
Similarly there was someone on this thread over a year back who was certain the pandemic was nearly over because they read an article in a newspaper based on a single study from a zoology group who'd used mathematical modelling to suggest that most people had enough generic coronavirus immunity to basically fend of COVID-19 once the first wave had settled. Like yeah, the world's foremost virologists and epidemiologists hadn't considered that already, good job some random gamer happened to be reading a newspaper and figured it out.
Azaran on 11/11/2021 at 17:18
Quote Posted by faetal
Similarly there was someone on this thread over a year back who was certain the pandemic was nearly over because they read an article in a newspaper based on a single study from a zoology group who'd used mathematical modelling to suggest that most people had enough generic coronavirus immunity to basically fend of COVID-19 once the first wave had settled. Like yeah, the world's foremost virologists and epidemiologists hadn't considered that already, good job some random gamer happened to be reading a newspaper and figured it out.
I remember scientists saying the virus might get weaker over time as it mutated and spread, eventually becoming nothing more than another cold.
That didn't age well
faetal on 11/11/2021 at 18:35
Well it might, but it also might not.
Depends on who the scientists are and exactly what they said really.
Difficult to judge out of context.
lowenz on 11/11/2021 at 22:09
Quote Posted by Azaran
I remember scientists saying the virus might get weaker over time as it mutated and spread, eventually becoming nothing more than another cold.
That didn't age well
Over 50/100 years.....but not "the virus", the infection because of 1) the virus mutations 2) the induced selection over human population
Cipheron on 13/11/2021 at 06:43
@Azaran, that's because milder strains tend to spread faster since there are more asymptomatic carriers. Weaker strains act as proto-vaccinations for the deadlier strains. Natural selection is random, but it favors variants that spread faster, not ones that hurt you more. So, *in the long run* the deadlier strains aren't competitive.
Lowenz is right that this takes years. For example, we never contained any of the bird flu or swine flu outbreaks, but death rates for them did decline back toward typical flu-death levels. Those strains are still out there, but not wreaking the havoc they first did.
This is also the reason Covid-19 was so nasty in the first place. Asymptomatic spread allows it to travel far. See how SARS and MERS were contained quickly, but are much deadlier.
Starker on 25/11/2021 at 23:08
Alternatives to treatments, more like...
Quote:
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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/23/florida-doctors-covid-coronavirus-bruce-boros)
Seven anti-vaccine doctors fell sick after gathering earlier this month for a Florida “summit” at which alternative treatments for Covid-19 were discussed.
“I have been on ivermectin for 16 months, my wife and I,” Dr Bruce Boros told the audience at the event held at the World Equestrian Center in Ocala, adding: “I have never felt healthier in my life.”
The 71-year-old cardiologist and staunch anti-vaccine advocate contracted Covid-19 two days later, according to the head event organizer, Dr John Littell.
[...]
Azaran on 26/11/2021 at 15:16
(
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-59427770) Here we go again
Quote:
More countries are tightening their travel restrictions after a new coronavirus variant was identified in southern Africa earlier this week.
The UK and Singapore are among those rushing in stricter quarantine measures or banning flights from South Africa and neighbouring countries.
The EU is proposing to ban flights from the region across the whole bloc.
Scientists still have much to learn about the variant, but say they are very worried about it.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has said it will take a few weeks to understand the impact of the new variant, as scientists work to determine how transmissible it is.
The variant is very different to the others that have emerged so far. Scientists have said it is the most heavily mutated version yet, which means vaccines, which were designed using the original strain from Wuhan, may not be as effective.
Quote:
The WHO says so far fewer than 100 sample sequences have been reported. Cases have mainly been confirmed in South Africa, but have also been detected in Hong Kong, Israel, Botswana and Belgium.
UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said on Friday that it is "highly likely" to have spread to other countries.
Most of the cases in South Africa have been from its most populated province, Gauteng, of which Johannesburg is the capital city.
Only about 24% of South Africa's population is fully vaccinated, which could see a rapid spread of cases there, Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (Spi-M), told the BBC on Friday.
In Hong Kong, the variant spread during hotel quarantine between a person who had arrived from South Africa and another hotel guest who tested positive a few days later, the Department of Health revealed. Both were fully vaccinated.
Shares hit as new Covid variant rattles investors
Israel's Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said on Friday it is "on the verge of a state of emergency" regarding the new variant, and that he would "act fast, strong and now".
One case was detected in a person who returned from Malawi, according to Israeli media reports quoting the country's health ministry. Another two suspected infections were yet to be confirmed with test results. All three are said to have been fully vaccinated.
