mopgoblin on 8/7/2021 at 00:32
Yeah, the only tangentially relevant training I have is in simulations and mathematical modelling, and it seemed obvious to me too. Give it as many opportunities as possible to spread and mutate, with a big reproductive benefit for any lineages that stumble into a mutation that makes them more able to infect vaccinated people and/or spread more effectively from infected vaccinated people, and I don't think you could encourage vaccine-resistant variants harder if you tried. I mean, maybe if you deliberately tried to farm it in immunocompromised people it could be worse, but supervillain strategies aside I can't think of a worse idea.
faetal on 8/7/2021 at 09:45
Quote Posted by Starker
I really wish people would stop underestimating the flu.
I'm not sure people under-estimate flu - it's fucking horrible even if it doesn't kill you or cause lasting harm.
Just that we could really do without having something slightly more harmful added to the seasonal bio-fuckery pile.
heywood on 8/7/2021 at 23:58
I think most people that I know underestimate the flu.
We're used to catching seasonal viruses, but we don't really know what we've caught. And we don't test people for the flu unless they are seriously ill. So it's possible that people regularly attribute symptoms to flu that are coming from something else.
Cipheron on 10/7/2021 at 07:48
Gotta love the Australian media's constant assertions that the world is obsessed with minor shit that's happening in Australia:
(
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/politics/world-reacts-as-sydney-covid19-crisis-spirals/news-story/0426233193f9ce72f164fa30772887cb)
Quote:
World reacts as Sydney Covid-19 crisis spirals
The world watched as Australia was celebrated for its covid success. And the world is watching now as the pandemic threatens to explode in Sydney.
Sydney is getting about 30 cases a day and so far zero deaths and apparently the rest of the world has stopped what they're doing to pay attention to the "Australian Covid Crisis". Such is the media here.
Also, last year when we had a big runs on toilet paper before the lockdowns, they kept running stories saying how the world was shocked, shocked I say, at the toilet paper shortages in Australia.
(
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/the-moment-australia-lost-its-mind-in-toilet-paper-panic-buying-debacle/news-story/b2c7c41ccbff62543ba23920c2d3407e)
Quote:
This year has been defined by a slew of unbelievable moments - but there was one mass act of craziness that our nation will never live down.
...
In the space of 24 hours and for weeks to come, shoppers wiped supermarket, pharmacy and convenience store shelves clean of the bathroom staple.
...
Australia, revered for its conduct and acts of selflessness and community throughout the horror bushfire season, was reduced to an international laughing stock.
Except of course, for the fact that people literally fucking everywhere reacted the same way at the same time:
(
https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2020/05/coronavirus-toilet-paper-shortage/)
Quote:
Toilet paper became a coveted item in late March when many cities and states across the country issued shelter-in-place orders in response to the coronavirus pandemic, prompting people to purchase large amounts of household goods.
Nearly half of all grocery stores in the United States were out of stock of toilet paper for some part of the day on April 19, the latest date for which figures were available via NCSolutions, a consumer products data tracker.
So I'd guess anyone laughing at Australia for running out of toilet paper would have stopped laughing a couple of weeks later when they too couldn't go to the supermarket and find any.
It's just a source of constant hilarity for me, the amount of stuff that's perfectly normal anywhere else that our media keeps harping on as being quintessentially "Australian" whether that's good or bad stuff, along with this notion that the rest of the world is apparently keeping note every time we so much as fart.
zombe on 11/7/2021 at 12:11
Thought to check what the word is on vaccination efficiency. What i have found ...
------------------
* First, based on locally availabe info (Estonia).
Cumulatively around 0.5% of cases have been sequenced (sampling was highly diluted when we had our mega wave [easily beating the highest US daily case count when adjusting to pop count x_x]). Currently 67% of new cases are the delta variant (weekly values were: 8% -> 26% -> 26% -> 33% -> 67%). 2 out of 4 regions have the replication value going above 1.0 and all of them are increasing. 25% of cases are imported, Russia being the most dominant source (above 50% of total imports).
Vaccines have different maximum protection delays:
* Pfizer/BioNTech - 7 days after the second dose.
* Moderna - 14 days after the second dose.
* AstraZeneca - 15 days after the second dose.
So far only 0.13% are known to be infected after their maximum protection date. From thous 12.9% needed hospitalization (i bet that number will trip up some people). In detail:
Comirnaty: 75 hospitalizations / 539 cases.
Vaxzevria: 3 hospitalizations / 82 cases.
Moderna: 4 hospitalizations / 9 cases.
Janssen: 0 hospitalizations / 5 cases.
Unfortunately i cannot find the vaccine totals - all i know is that Pfizer/Comirnaty is the most popular one people choose. So, cannot give the infection rate for given vaccine as while the percentages are given per vaccine - that number is completely meaningless without the totals.
For comparison: Roughly 10% of our total population have tested positive. Cumulatively 88.5% of detected cases were symptomatic (ie. quite a bit of cases got caught without any symptoms. Excluding the bat-shit mega wave that counts for the vast majority of all cases and made contact tracing at the time essentially impossible - our covid "detectives" have done and are still doing an excellent job. Ex: last week 90% of cases analyzed, where 71.7% times the source was reached). Cumulatively, 6.9% ended up needing hospitalization at some point. 4.8% of thous hospitalized needed ventilation support. 13.9% of the hospitalized people died. From all deaths with covid - 98.8% died in hospital. Our current case fatality rate is 0.97% - which is very low compared to nearly everyone else (a long lasting puzzlement of mine is why *exactly* it is so low) - typical values are in the 1.5-3% range.
Some random info bit i encountered (in the English version of our official vaccination FAQ corona crisis ("kriis" = "crisis") sub-page (
https://www.kriis.ee/en/vaccination-estonia) ):
Quote:
Does a corona test need to be done before vaccination?
There is no need to do a SARS-CoV-2 test before vaccination. The vaccination does not have a negative impact on the patient's health condition and being positive for COVID-19 does not lessen the effect of the vaccine.
Thought that getting the vaccine while being ill could be bad idea - but not so sure now. Perhaps it could even help as getting the "learning material" in shoulder might provide some locational shortcuts for the immune system in addition to the extra "wake-up call"?
------------------
* Second, other sources with less tiny-country problems.
Reinfections (infected again after 90+ days since last infection) are rare and milder - inc. much more often to be asymptomatic (first time around ~20%, second time ~55%) ((
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveytechnicalarticleanalysisofreinfectionsofcovid19/june2021) UK, ONS, reinfection survey).
Vaccine efficiency ((
https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view_file/479607329?_com_liferay_document_library_web_portlet_DLPortlet_INSTANCE_v2WsRK3ZlEig_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fkhub.net%3A443%2Fweb%2Fphe-national%2Fpublic-library%2F-%2Fdocument_library%2Fv2WsRK3ZlEig%2Fview%2F479607266) credible UK source, put preprint warning)
Vaccines slightly less effective against delta variant, but only very slightly.
Pfizer (vs Delta):
* 36% effective against symptomatic disease, 94% against hospitalization, one dose
* 88% effective against symptomatic disease, 96% against hospitalization, two doses
* 6% less effective for the delta variant compared to alpha (after the full regiment)
AstraZeneca (vs Delta):
* 30% effective against symptomatic disease, 71% against hospitalization, one dose
* 67% effective against symptomatic disease, 92% against hospitalization, two doses
* 1% less effective for the delta variant compared to alpha (after the full regiment)
------------------
In short, vaccines still highly effective and also no reinfection issues so far. Let's keep cultivating new strains to undo that i guess.
faetal on 11/7/2021 at 14:43
To make that more readable, be consistent in the word you are using to refer to each vaccine. I know that Comirnaty = Pfizer / BioNTech etc, many don't.
zombe on 11/7/2021 at 19:04
Fair point. Certain materials usually refer to the actual vaccine name and so i gravitate towards using thous - unfortunately (as is common in medicine) thous names are "designed" to be impossible to remember. Hence, i think, certain kind of info sources completely omit the vaccine name instead. So, i am divided ... ending up using whatever the source used - continuing the inconsistency ... x_x.
Anyway, speaking of the common 4 vaccines ...
Why is it that Pfizer/Comirnaty and AstraZeneca/Vaxzevria grossly dominate in stats and figures? I am not sure. It is like the other ones do not even exist.
Anarchic Fox on 11/7/2021 at 19:27
I'm unhappy to hear Estonia's had such a big wave, but the <1% fatality rate is great. Maybe there are some lessons there to be learned by other countries.
Quote Posted by zombe
Why is it that Pfizer/Comirnaty and AstraZeneca/Vaxzevria grossly dominate in stats and figures? I am not sure. It is like the other ones do not even exist.
I think it's because they were first out the gate with vaccines, thus received enormous amounts of money from the US to boost production. This is just a guess though. EDIT: Oops, it was Pfizer and Moderna that got the boost. So, I dunno.
zombe on 12/7/2021 at 07:53
I do not know of any country where vaccinations are planned to be mandatory - so, what the actual fuck are they even talking about? Is there an actual mandatory vaccination push in the US? I seriously doubt it.