SD on 4/7/2021 at 23:09
Quote Posted by zombe
What is the vaccinations situation in UK? Looks like 4th wave is gaining ground there - rather rapidly. Why?
4th wave? When did we have a 3rd?
Situation in the UK is much as it has been for the past four months - hardly anyone is dying from (with) covid.
The doomsayers are desperately trying to scaremonger, but everything is set to open fully back up in two weeks and they'll have to find a new grift.
The real fun and games will come later when we start trying to address the millions of people waiting for "non-essential" medical treatment that has been delayed because of the blessed covid.
R Soul on 4/7/2021 at 23:31
I get the impression that soon it won't just be scientists and engineers who are familiar with the Greek alphabet.
(and Greek people, obviously)
Pyrian on 5/7/2021 at 01:33
Quote Posted by SD
Situation in the UK is much as it has been for the past four months - hardly anyone is dying from (with) covid.
So far, every wave of new cases has had a corresponding wave of deaths a few weeks later. Also, every wave of new cases has had people pooh-poohing the threat by saying that a wave of deaths hasn't arrived (yet).
I hope you're right.
This time. Maybe the treatments have gotten enough better to control it. I guess we'll see. I wish you didn't
have to.
mopgoblin on 5/7/2021 at 01:43
Quote Posted by SD
Situation in the UK is much as it has been for the past four months - hardly anyone is dying from (with) covid.
You might wanna take a second look, the rate of known new cases has climbed by a factor of 10 since this time in May. Hopefully this could be partly explained by more tests being carried out (or more precision in who is being tested), and we all hope that it doesn't translate to thousands of deaths every week like we saw late last year, but based on how sharp the increase has been - you've detected as many new cases these past two weeks as you did in the two months before that - the full extent of the increase in deaths is most likely yet to come. The hospitalisation numbers are creeping upwards too, which strongly suggests a real increase in cases.
SD on 5/7/2021 at 02:55
It's not going to translate into deaths, because we're approaching herd immunity, as was inevitable after most of the population had been vaccinated and/or infected.
Still waiting for the uptick in deaths and hospitalisations in Texas after they opened up fully 4 months ago.
lowenz on 5/7/2021 at 05:03
Quote Posted by SD
It's not going to translate into deaths, because we're approaching herd immunity, as was inevitable after most of the population had been vaccinated and/or infected.
There's no
lasting immunity and there are new variants boosting the risk of reinfections.
zombe on 5/7/2021 at 08:30
Quote Posted by SD
It's not going to translate into deaths, because we're approaching herd immunity, as was inevitable after most of the population had been vaccinated and/or infected.
Still waiting for the uptick in deaths and hospitalisations in Texas after they opened up fully 4 months ago.
???
Not sure whether you failed to communicate whatever you meant to say or ... anyway:
UK:
(
https://postimages.org/)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/L8Zp5Q7D/Screenshot-2021-07-05-United-Kingdom.pngTexas:
(
https://postimages.org/)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/QCn2xcJv/Screenshot-2021-07-05-Texas.pngWhat are you comparing? What are you talking about? The nature of herd immunity would make the depicted sharp and long flareup essentially impossible - yet there it is. Only 15% (to be very generous) have been infected. Vaccinations situation seems to be much better, but evidently not enough. Herd immunity typically needs around 70% - 95% coverage. No-one is sure what is needed for Covid - and its delta variant. Well, whatever - no-one is even approaching anything like that in ALL age groups to begin with. Everyone has massive coverage holes amongst younger people. That said, i do expect less deaths (case fatality rate) this time around as vaccination situation should be considerably better in risk groups now. I also expect hospitals to have an easier time dealing with the 4th wave as the need for hospitalizations is less for younger people and thereby giving some extra time to get the flareup under control before it becomes unbearable.
Anyway. It's going to suck for people knowingly or unknowingly in risk who have not been or could not be vaccinated. When there is lots of the virus going around - it gets unporpotionally harder to avoid it.
Cipheron on 5/7/2021 at 09:23
Quote Posted by zombe
Anyway. It's going to suck for people knowingly or unknowingly in risk who have not been or could not be vaccinated. When there is lots of the virus going around - it gets unporpotionally harder to avoid it.
Yeah. Also i wouldn't take too much stock in the current situation in Texas.
One thing that isn't being taken into account is that we don't know a whole lot about the seasonality of Covid-19.
Think about it this way: it's the middle of summer right now. In Texas. So they opened up 4 months ago and there wasn't a big Covid outbreak as a result. But it's the hot months now, and that's a hot place. We shouldn't really assume this means Covid is over in Texas any more than the lack of a flu outbreak there IN SUMMER means that the flu isn't an ongoing risk. Covid is just like flu except maybe 10 times worse. Let's not be that surprised if the situation in Texas has a "surprise" reversal once cold weather comes back.
So we have people saying to learn to live with Covid-19 like we do flu. But, Covid's about 10 times as deadly as the flu. A bad flu year kills about 50,000 Americans. We don't yet know whether 2020 was "a bad Covid year" or not, given that it's still mutating, but about 600,000 American people died. We have a sample size of exactly one year's worth of data of a novel disease that's still mutating in the wild. Maybe we get yearly Covid season on top of flu season, and a bad year of that kills a million Americans per year. We don't really know: 3000 a day were dying in the USA 6 months ago, and only 300 a day now. But 6 months ago was winter, doh. It's very premature to assume that the strategy is working: flu viruses also die back in the summer FFS.
The smart thing is to assume that the only year you have on record is an *average* year for Covid, and that some years will be both better or worse than 2020 - maybe the vaccine ends up being like flu vaccines and only good for a year or so, and we have to get everyone to re-immunize every single year, and of course, nobody can be bothered with that, so we get intermittent years of massive outbreaks of this thing interspersed with years where things seem more normal.
Basically modern people lack any sort of persistence. Imagine if we acted like we are now, but in WWII, constantly complaining about wartime necessities only a year into the war.
faetal on 5/7/2021 at 14:41
Not to mention that natural immunity to coronaviruses may be hindered by dysregulation of the humoral immune respose: (
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0092867420310679)
Abstract:
Humoral responses in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are often of limited durability, as seen with other human coronavirus epidemics. To address the underlying etiology, we examined post mortem thoracic lymph nodes and spleens in acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and observed the absence of germinal centers and a striking reduction in Bcl-6+ germinal center B cells but preservation of AID+ B cells. Absence of germinal centers correlated with an early specific block in Bcl-6+ TFH cell differentiation together with an increase in T-bet+ TH1 cells and aberrant extra-follicular TNF-α accumulation. Parallel peripheral blood studies revealed loss of transitional and follicular B cells in severe disease and accumulation of SARS-CoV-2-specific “disease-related” B cell populations. These data identify defective Bcl-6+ TFH cell generation and dysregulated humoral immune induction early in COVID-19 disease, providing a mechanistic explanation for the limited durability of antibody responses in coronavirus infections, and suggest that achieving herd immunity through natural infection may be difficult.lowenz on 5/7/2021 at 16:01
Exactly.
"Herd immunity" is NOT possible.
