Gryzemuis on 12/3/2020 at 16:11
We haven't seen the real danger scenario yet.
When many people get infected, and many people get ill and need hospitalization.
And the hospitals can not keep up. And there aren't enough beds, medical personnel and equipment.
Then the risk of dying, even when you are not one of the worst cases, goes up.
Remember, pneumonia was a deadly disease before we got antibiotics.
Antibiotics work when a pneumonia is caused by a bacteria or fungus.
They don't work when a pneumonia is caused by a virus.
I don't think we'll get it under control (soon) (*).
Lockdown seems the only way to try and control the outbreak today.
Governments wait too long to go into lockdown.
Lockdown itself isn't cheap.
There's not enough test kits (worldwide).
It's been told people are contagious when they have no symptoms. Not sure if this is true (but I believe it probably is).
Some young people don't give a fuck. If they catch it, they keep spreading it.
There is no medicine to cure it. There is no vaccine to prevent it.
One way this can go:
half the world population catches the virus. nobody knows why, but the other half is kinda immune. or lucky.
a few percent (0.5% - 5%) of people die.
covid-19 stays around, but the world learns to live with it. most people will have had it, or are kinda immune.
The other way this can go (*):
spring is coming. the spread of the virus slows down. at least until october.
in the mean time, fewer people get ill, fewer people die, hospitals can keep up.
these extra 6 months (before october) give us time to find a cure or a vaccine, or some means to keep the spread under control.
If anyone can see another scenario, I'm very interested to hear it.
PigLick on 12/3/2020 at 16:17
This is going to hit musicians hard, a lot of my friends earn their living from live performances, if they dont gig they dont get paid. In fact the whole hospitality industry is going to be in big trouble, if Italy is an example of what will happen in most countries, i.e bars clubs and other venues being closed down.
Renzatic on 12/3/2020 at 16:18
Quote Posted by Brethren
So pardon my naivete, but where will all of this eventually end, or at the very least, get under control? Only once a vaccine is developed? Guess I'm just not sure how the cycle works. It seems like other viruses like the flu, common cold, smallpox, measles, etc, are just a part of everyday life now (or were), but I'm sure at one point in history they were very scary too.
It may not even be that. The last Coronavirus outbreak was the SARS epidemic 16 years ago, and there's currently no evidence that it mutates as quickly and regularly as the flu. Considering what we know, there's no reason to assume its presence is the new normal. It's more likely we won't see it again for another 15 years.
lowenz on 12/3/2020 at 17:01
Quote Posted by Brethren
like people who claims "it's just like the flu!"
With no vaccine
With the help of some handsome pathogenic bacteria with antibiotic resistance
With your lung and kidney already stressed
Now the epidemiological and clinical equation
it's just like the flu! is correct :p
jkcerda on 12/3/2020 at 17:33
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
We haven't seen the real danger scenario yet.
When many people get infected, and many people get ill and need hospitalization.
And the hospitals can not keep up. And there aren't enough beds, medical personnel and equipment.
Then the risk of dying, even when you are not one of the worst cases, goes up.
Remember, pneumonia was a deadly disease before we got antibiotics.
Antibiotics work when a pneumonia is caused by a bacteria or fungus.
They don't work when a pneumonia is caused by a virus.
I don't think we'll get it under control (soon) (*).
Lockdown seems the only way to try and control the outbreak today.
Governments wait too long to go into lockdown.
Lockdown itself isn't cheap.
There's not enough test kits (worldwide).
It's been told people are contagious when they have no symptoms. Not sure if this is true (but I believe it probably is).
Some young people don't give a fuck. If they catch it, they keep spreading it.
There is no medicine to cure it. There is no vaccine to prevent it.
One way this can go:
half the world population catches the virus. nobody knows why, but the other half is kinda immune. or lucky.
a few percent (0.5% - 5%) of people die.
covid-19 stays around, but the world learns to live with it. most people will have had it, or are kinda immune.
The other way this can go (*):
spring is coming. the spread of the virus slows down. at least until october.
in the mean time, fewer people get ill, fewer people die, hospitals can keep up.
these extra 6 months (before october) give us time to find a cure or a vaccine, or some means to keep the spread under control.
If anyone can see another scenario, I'm very interested to hear it.
Inline Image:
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/s960x960/89632567_1350295255176506_5939211992454660096_o.jpg?_nc_cat=109&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=L3IWV1B8PIgAX_qjB3J&_nc_ht=scontent-lax3-1.xx&_nc_tp=7&oh=380b23a407e03061ad4888e233e31daa&oe=5E8D922FRenzatic on 12/3/2020 at 17:59
OMG TRIGGERED!
Meanwhile, we can't even get test kits out, and we'd have to triage patients too if we end up getting Italy level swamped.
Gryzemuis on 12/3/2020 at 18:19
US is only 1-3 weeks behind Italy. Just like Italy was a few weeks behind China. Yanks can make jokes about Italy and other European countries. I agree, they could have handled the situation better. Especially my own country is doing piss-poor. I'm ashamed. But don't think the US is gonna be different.
The only difference will be this:
Italy -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the elderly"
USA -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the middle-class and poor"
heywood on 12/3/2020 at 18:21
Quote Posted by Brethren
So pardon my naivete, but where will all of this eventually end, or at the very least, get under control? Only once a vaccine is developed? Guess I'm just not sure how the cycle works. It seems like other viruses like the flu, common cold, smallpox, measles, etc, are just a part of everyday life now (or were), but I'm sure at one point in history they were very scary too.
Nobody knows for sure.
The 1918 flu pandemic took about a year to fade away, with the worst of it occurring within about a 6 month period. SARS was gone in 6 months, but the total number of SARS cases was only around 8000 and COVID-19 is spreading at a much faster rate. So I *hope* we'll be over the hump by the end of summer, but it's just a hope.
A lot depends on our response. If we're able to slow down the transmission rate to be in the range of the seasonal flu, the virus will spread more slowly and may take a long time to get rid of, but it will be easier to manage and less deadly. If we can reduce R0 < 1, the virus fades away. On the other hand, if R0 stays up in the range of norovirus or gets worse, it will spread through the world quickly enough to overwhelm our health care systems and kills lots of people and cause lots of mayhem, but the eventual end will come sooner.
jkcerda on 12/3/2020 at 18:25
Quote Posted by Gryzemuis
US is only 1-3 weeks behind Italy. Just like Italy was a few weeks behind China. Yanks can make jokes about Italy and other European countries. I agree, they could have handled the situation better. Especially my own country is doing piss-poor. I'm ashamed. But don't think the US is gonna be different.
The only difference will be this:
Italy -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the elderly"
USA -> "as country's top doctors say the intensive care units should stop treating the middle-class and poor"
the US is worse based on the level of stupid that we engage in, everyone is running like a chicken with their heads cut off over a virus that kills 3.4% or so of those infected, H1N1 was WORSE and the media did NOT spread the bullshit they are now.
