Starker on 11/9/2020 at 22:04
Yes, people hosting the event may be at an increased risk, but that doesn't necessarily mean the entire state is at the same risk. And the paper clearly demonstrated an increase of cases in Sturgis and linked them convincingly to the event. But, as I said, I actually do agree that the paper has shortcomings in the assumptions taken on the national level, as there are many other factors that could (and probably do) count for the increases of cases in the counties the visitors returned to.
Here's a John Hopkins discussion paper that's reviewing this working paper and goes into more detail on this: (
https://ncrc.jhsph.edu/research/the-contagion-externality-of-a-superspreading-event-the-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-and-covid-19/)
Azaran on 11/9/2020 at 22:17
We're in the middle of a deadly pandemic, and governments think it's a good idea to send kids back to school. Great job
Nicker on 11/9/2020 at 22:25
We can't afford kids right now. We are in the middle of a pandemic!
ffox on 12/9/2020 at 09:29
What do you make of this?
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It seems that about 1 in 4 of infected people were dying at the peak of the first surge but now it's around 1 in 1000.
Renzatic on 12/9/2020 at 09:48
Quote Posted by ffox
What do you make of this?
The current assumption is that the 2nd wave breaking out across Europe might be a less deadly strain. This, alongside the fact that doctors have a better understanding of the disease than they did 6 months ago, is why we're seeing less hospitalizations and deaths, despite the escalating numbers of infected.
zombe on 12/9/2020 at 11:15
Umm... Add to that a huge difference in testing coverage (initial testing was garbage everywhere and basically mostly just covered thous that got sufficiently sick and were accordingly much more likely to progress to serious trouble) - likely the topmost dominant reason by far. Followed by, over a large gap, improvements in care. Strain differences are a quite unlikely explanation and can be mostly discarded (ie. how the hell did the favorable strain suddenly get everywhere at the same time with no signs of bad strains remaining anywhere).
Starker on 12/9/2020 at 11:21
There's also some speculation that it might be because more young people are getting infected and/or tested this time.
R Soul on 12/9/2020 at 11:46
Suggestion: The virus got among us well before we knew it (or when it was thought be be just a China thing). Vulnerable succumbed to it early on, or survived but required intensive medical help. Now there's a much smaller proportion of people who will be badly affected.
Azaran on 12/9/2020 at 14:15
Quote Posted by ffox
It seems that about 1 in 4 of infected people were dying at the peak of the first surge but now it's around 1 in 1000.
I imagine people getting more sun might have played a part