heywood on 4/8/2020 at 18:16
There's no one answer for all schools. People keep wanting the states to decide whether to open schools or not, but the decision needs to be at the local level depending on local conditions.
There are lots and lots of communities in every state with zero active cases. As an example, there are 221 municipalities in my state and 2/3 of them have no active cases. Most of the rest have less than 5. There 12 municipalities with 5-10 cases, 4 with 10-20 cases, and 2 with >20 cases. Since March, the vast majority of the state's cases have come from two small cities near the Massachusetts border and their surrounding suburbs.
So IMHO, opening schools is a low risk decision across most of our state.
In one region, where I live, it's medium risk. In my town, the number of current active cases is 0.06% of the population (19 out of 33k). Going by sheer numbers I might say it's low risk, but I consider it medium risk for a few reasons:
1. Current testing delays make it hard to contact trace & isolate
2. We are seeing a little bit of an upward trend in Massachusetts and there's a lot of cross-border traffic for commuting, shopping, and recreation
3. There's too many idiots who can't keep a mask on their face
But it's not hard to find other communities around the country who have scary looking new case numbers indicative of out of control community spreading, and opening schools in those places is a recipe for disaster.
The national debate we're having about it right now is simplistic. The media are presenting it as if it's a binary choice of "should we" or "shouldn't we" for a whole state or even the country. They put guests on from both camps, usually a parent in the Yes camp and a teacher in the No camp, who offer their views with no discussion of local conditions. The debate we should be having is about guidelines & metrics for evaluating local and regional conditions and what schooling approaches are best for different conditions. One size fits all doesn't make sense. But that's too nuanced for our media to handle. They're polarizing the decision making process. The teachers unions are doing their share as well.
And just to be clear, I'm just talking about primary & secondary schools. I think colleges and universities re-opening their campuses is generally a bad idea. There are some smaller colleges in rural areas that can probably isolate themselves well enough to be at low risk of a campus outbreak. But I think it's going to be dangerous for most, especially big universities or those located in major cities.
Starker on 4/8/2020 at 19:24
Wait, that is the choice the states are facing in the US? Either open all schools or none of them? You guys are more screwed than I imagined :/. Here I thought every state decided on a county by county basis where schools can reopen and under what circumstances. Like, as you mentioned, having very few cases for a period of time and getting testing and tracing capabilities to a level where outbreaks can be quickly and easily contained, and being able to take cross-border traffic into account.
Also, it looks like you really need some form of centralised institution to set guidelines and coordinate the response. Like some Headquarters for Illness Management and Avoidance or something.
Pyrian on 4/8/2020 at 20:29
Quote Posted by Starker
Wait, that is the choice the states are facing in the US? Either open all schools or none of them?
No, not at all. But heywood's right that a lot of media (and politicians) are presenting the situation in that way. (I wouldn't be so quick to blame them, though; it's the general public that tends to hunger for oversimplified answers.) Legally speaking, the federal government has little authority over local districts. Such decisions are largely made at the state and local levels.
heywood on 4/8/2020 at 20:42
I don't think the states want to be in the position of making one-size-fits-all policies. But everyone demanded the states come up with a re-opening plan. I can't speak for all states, but in this region of the country (New England), when state guidelines were released around the end of June, they were mostly voluntary, in order to leave it up to the districts to tailor them to their own situation. That resulted in a backlash, especially from the teachers' unions, who wanted a common set of rules statewide and they wanted them to be mandatory. There were unhappy parents and a lot of media commentary complaining about it too. More recently, the largest teachers union nationally is threatening to strike, although most states don't allow teacher strikes or only allow them under certain conditions e.g. if they don't have a contract. So I don't think that's a credible threat, but in some states it might be.
There's also one important thing notably missing from the reopening guidelines released by states near me. There's no guidance to help districts assess the Covid-19 situation in their community and decide when it's safe to reopen and to what degree. Likewise, there's no guidance about how to respond to clusters of cases (only individual positives) or what conditions should trigger schools to close again. The assumption everyone is making is that the state will tell everyone when it's safe to open and if/when to close again.
Over the last week or two, I've seen and heard the topic of school reopening discussed and debated on various TV and radio news and current events programs. I've also read a number of opinion pieces. And like I was saying, the debate seems to be binary.
SubJeff on 4/8/2020 at 21:54
Quote Posted by SD
Not sure why I need an explanation, it is surely enough to know that X happens without knowing the precise mechanism.
Nah bro, you don't get off that easily.
You need to explain your statement. I quoted you and asked about it after you posted your theory on the mechanism. Doesn't make sense to me. Please explain it.
Pyrian on 4/8/2020 at 22:23
Living in California, it's a bit weird to hear about state versus local in New England. My county is four times the size of Rhode Island.
Renzatic on 5/8/2020 at 01:08
Quote Posted by Pyrian
Living in California, it's a bit weird to hear about state versus local in New England. My county is four times the size of Rhode Island.
The guys up the road are trying to tell the people down the street how to live their lives!
Pyrian on 5/8/2020 at 03:00
In fairness, they've held a grudge since one of their ancestors pranked another on the Mayflower.
heywood on 5/8/2020 at 16:21
It's a different world from SoCal, that's for sure.
I'm not a New England native, so there's still some things about living here that I don't get. Number one is the prevalence of the "townie", i.e. someone who chooses to spend their life in the same town they grew up in, often the same neighborhood, and limit themselves to a very small circle of friends, often the same friends they had through their school years. But on the flip side, I like the fact that it's not a sea of sameness. Many New England towns have retained their individual character, history, and charm. You don't need to go very far at all to enjoy completely different culture, scenery, recreation, etc.
Pyrian on 5/8/2020 at 18:36
I imagine the former does a lot to feed into the latter.
