faetal on 28/6/2020 at 13:51
Don't let perfect be the enemy of good. It's the best available model and it gets shit done at a rate which has been transformative.
Also, it is possible to project outside of your own limitations by understanding what they are. Also, assuming AI has biases (it does) and likewise for a more advanced species, then it's turtles all the way up anyway.
Science doesn't have to be perfect to be the thing you choose over specious alternatives concocted by joining cherry-picked dots with imagination.
Science doesn't even present itself as 100% truth. It's all there in the typical wording:
The presence of X at increasing concentrations of Y suggests that Z is happening. Further investigations of Z should be conducted to see if there are any additional influences arising due to W.
It's not science's fault that popular media tends to broadcast this is "X causes Z bitches".
PigLick on 28/6/2020 at 14:23
faetal, that was an excellent explanation, great post man really solidified what I knew about the dunning kruger but could never properly articulate myself.
faetal on 28/6/2020 at 14:44
Quote Posted by PigLick
faetal, that was an excellent explanation, great post man really solidified what I knew about the dunning kruger but could never properly articulate myself.
The good thing about wikipedia, is that it tends towards being pretty solid on stuff which is controversial and for which plenty of research exists, is such articles inevitably end up being the focus of an edit war, forcing extreme adherence to referencing and honesty guidelines by the mods.
lowenz on 28/6/2020 at 14:48
Quote Posted by faetal
It's not science's fault that popular media tends to broadcast this is "
X causes Z bitches".
But that's what the people - the very same people that can "do science" as everyday work - want (see the biases ever returning, and they are perfectly natural as the problem-solving ability evolded in "science" nowdays, you can't kill scientific progress but you can't kill human biases too using scientific progress)
faetal on 28/6/2020 at 15:15
As a person who has been an everyday scientist, I can say that you're probably incorrect.
What most scientists want is to advance the model. No one is hunting for universal 100% truth, just something which improves on what is there.
You may not be able to eliminate human bias entirely, but nor do you want to, since a lot of the output of scientific progress is meant to be beneficial to humans, hence making it suit human thinking is not without value.
However, that is not to say that this puts science on equal ground with any bullshit people can dream up with the right amount of cannabis at 4 in the morning.
Science sets the bar - if you want to depose a scientific thought, you have to do so with methodology equal to, or superior to the scientific method.
Hence why these nitpcky little attempts at gotchas are kind of devoid of any useful substance for the actual conversation which is happening.
The "science doesn't know everything" argument, often employed prior to a god of the gaps statement has been taking up unnecessary space in this type of conversation for as long as I can remember. Because if you can't answer the follow-up question of "so what?", then why even bring it up?
Tocky on 28/6/2020 at 16:40
If the framework of a structure is truth it doesn't matter what you put on the mantle of the fireplace. I thought I was going to disagree for a minute, faetal, but you clarified. That would have looked bad for me as a non scientist for obvious reasons. I just love truth. If it disagrees with me then I am wrong and I want to know. It pisses me off royal when people don't have truth as the ultimate goal.
Science doesn't know everything? True. But it wants to. That's why I love it.
Judith on 28/6/2020 at 17:08
In similar to what faetal said, at some level, e.g. scientific / academic philosophy, striving for "just" and "simply" isn't going to cut it. There are many definitions of truth, some more useful than others, depending on the approach and subject matter. That doesn't mean everything is super relative and useless either. Again, as faetal said, a model that is accurate enough will do. If there are things discovered that turn the whole approach upside down, the model eventually gets adjusted and we move on. The search for some kind of universal truth is more like a romantic idea we develop as humans, as we grow up.
nbohr1more on 28/6/2020 at 19:55
Quote Posted by faetal
100% this. You are free to believe and say whatever you please, but you aren't entitled to be taken seriously
by default. That has to be earned.
It's never good to be too certain of anything, and the more complex the subject matter, the more a person without relevant education / knowlsged being 100% certain is likely to be a manifestation of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
I'll unpack Dunning Kruger a bit since it is so overused in internet discourse these days, leading to drift from what it really refers to (hasty crib from wikipedia disclaimer):
"If you're incompetent, you can't know you're incompetent ... The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."
"In short, those who are incompetent, for lack of a better term, should have little insight into their incompetence—an assertion that has come to be known as the Dunning-Kruger effect"
and from a later study:
"poor performers do not learn from feedback suggesting a need to improve"
So the reason you feel you can be sure that you are right about the virus being engineered, is that you are unable to discern the actual details required to be certain of that type of thing, thus you are free to just go with your gut.
If the only outcome you can foresee from this discussion is that you'll go on assuming you are correct and we are wrong, that might be the cognitive dissonance talking. Specifically, the belief-disconfirmation paradigm.
Another unpack from wikipedia follows:
"In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance occurs when a person holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values; or participates in an action that goes against one of these three, and experiences psychological stress because of that."
That feeling of annoyance you get when you read something you don't agree with, but seems feasible? That's the psychological stress kicking in. So how to make that feeling go away?
"The contradiction of a belief, ideal, or system of values causes cognitive dissonance that can be resolved by changing the challenged belief, yet,
instead of effecting change, the resultant mental stress restores psychological consonance to the person by misperception, rejection, or refutation of the contradiction, seeking moral support from people who share the contradicted beliefs or acting to persuade other people that the contradiction is unreal."
The latter would probably explain any feelings of satisfaction you have on other forums where everyone is down with the deep state bioweapon stuff. It's also part of why conspiracy theorists mistrust experts, since the experts tend to be under-represented in the areas where conspiracy theorists feel accepted / comfortable. So you are faced with the possibilities:
a) You are likely incorrect to a moderate extent (discomfort, having to potentially change beliefs which your current identity is defined by)
b) Experts are wrong somehow (this might result in outlandish claims, like a peer-reviewed article is false because the lead author has a fancy website, therefore HILARY)
I'll leave it to you to decide what you think is most likely, but we've been studying the human brain long enough to know that it is not a good engine for taking in reality and pumping out truth - mostly it just wants you to stay nourished and safe, then fuck lots - whatever gets that done. To get at truth, we have had to spend centuries constructing a complex system of philosophy and practical arts which attempt to eliminate our brains' inherent biases. If you think that you are somehow exempt from that, that's your choice, but expect to come up against similar conversations when having these kinds of discussions in places not populated solely by the terminally stoned.
[Note - numerous edits to improve readability / clarity]
I never claimed that I was 100 percent certain about the fact that the virus was engineered. I have only stated that I am fairly confident. So this attempt to recast the discourse
is pretty disingenuous.
This reminds me a little of a famous youtube personality "Destiny" who "wins debates" by receiving his debate replies from "think tanks" and "knowledge specialists" who can easily trounce lay persons trying to engage with him.
It almost makes me think:
"I agree with the scientist in the Forbes article. So what? Now you have to have 50 paid consultants help you script a scientifically plausible anti-narrative?"
Anyway, I was hoping to get at least these answers:
Do you believe that the US bioweapon teams are "incapable" of creating Covid-19?
Likewise, are China "incapable" of this feat?
But I probably wont because it seems I am defeated.
The leak with the most relevant data cannot be found through hours of internet searching so I am guessing that Google and others have expunged it in their greater
quest to censor the internet.
So go and celebrate:
1) This meager forum victory
2) The continued Covid Deaths that will end Trump's reign
3) The deaths of conservative Bible Thumpers who are being pied-piper-ed into thinking that "Covid isn't real"
4) Your "minty fresh" "controversy free" interwebs with no uncomfortable truths floating around in it
lowenz on 28/6/2020 at 20:06
Quote Posted by faetal
As a person who has been an everyday scientist, I can say that you're probably incorrect.
What most scientists want is to advance the model. No one is hunting for universal 100% truth, just something which improves on what is there.
It's not how human mind works, that's how human mind can try to
educate itself to work. But it's a screen that sometimes gets wrecked 'cause it's a rational(ist) pose.
And so you obtain "old scientists gone mad conspiracy theorists".
See Montagnier and other Nobel Prizes gone mad.
lowenz on 28/6/2020 at 20:12
Quote Posted by Judith
In similar to what faetal said, at some level, e.g. scientific / academic philosophy, striving for "just" and "simply" isn't going to cut it. There are many definitions of truth, some more useful than others, depending on the approach and subject matter. That doesn't mean everything is super relative and useless either. Again, as faetal said, a model that is accurate enough will do. If there are things discovered that turn the whole approach upside down, the model eventually gets adjusted and we move on. The search for some kind of universal truth is more like a romantic idea we develop as humans, as we grow up.
What I'm trying to say is that it's not how the mind
naturally works, the one of the scientists too.
I'm not talking about scientific truth paradigms, I'm talking about the "inner" working of the psyche behind the scientific profession and its gnoseologic deontology.
You see nbohr as a paranoid mind, but paranoia is "natural" (a defense mechanism). Rationalism (as a form of education and attitude) not. That's the main issue with mankind :p
You can't just say "You're out of mind" when the human mind is more evolutionary built on paranoia than on rationalism.