Nicker on 21/5/2020 at 08:39
Another consideration is that as infection rates rise and hospitals are overwhelmed, people who might have survived with treatment will die from lack of it. Which means that the mortality rate for Covid-19 will also rise. It's not a linear progression.
Sorry. I am getting morbidly oblique.
demagogue on 21/5/2020 at 08:46
It's probably an obvious point, but the foundational problem here is that the economic costs of the lockdown are acute and felt by everybody, whereas avoiding the economic costs of no-lockdown by having a lockdown is counterfactual and not easily felt by people at all.
People would have to imagine the extra health costs of no-lockdown and then the economic costs that come out of that, and there are all sorts of reasons why people don't have a good sense of that: there's a known cognitive bias (optimism bias) where people feel they are much less likely to suffer a loss (get sick) than their actual risk; they don't want to believe they or their group can get sick and way underestimate the actual risk/loss they're subject to; most people have small imaginations and a lack of empathy; counteractual reasoning is just hard! Etc, etc.
Pyrian on 21/5/2020 at 17:11
Then there's the fact that once lockdowns came down, people blame the economic consequences of people staying home on the lockdowns, even though most people were already substantially reducing their purchasing before the lockdown and continue to do so afterwards.
jkcerda on 21/5/2020 at 17:29
hard to buy things while unemployed.
you are also correct in people being wary of just spending money, this is going to be a nasty domino effect with even more businesses closing in the coming months.
with the exception of preppers most of us were not ready for this crap, not just money wise but food and general supplies wise, there is a 3 month back log on freezers, after two months of this crap we are finally seeing beans & rice back in shelves, wife & daughter are finally getting lysol/clorox wipes w/o having to fight someone over them. now keep in mind anyone with a brain knows this shit will again pop up come flu season in a couple of months so I wonder if we are going to again see a bunch of shortages. as of now over 13 million jobs are gone due to over 6000 businesses closing their doors, how long before all these people are added to the homeless population? the cure has been far worse than the disease and damn governors are still looking to extend lock down 2 months?
Renzatic on 21/5/2020 at 18:21
Like how the virus itself wasn't the coming plague that would herald the end of the world, this recession won't bring about the collapse of our economy.
Yes, things will suck for a bit. The next year or so won't be all that fun. But it's not the end of all things. If there's anything that COULD destroy us, it's the goddamn panic over everything. Rational minds need to prevail here, otherwise we'll fuck things up over the fear that everything's going to be fucked up forever.
Tony_Tarantula on 21/5/2020 at 18:55
You're absolutely right.
Meanwhile Trump continues to fill the swamp. Now we find out his "vaccine tzar" (Appropriate name for an official in an administration with delusions of monarchy) from GlaxoSmithKlein made 3.4 million dollars after the announcement of "progress" on a vaccine that had a trial size of...wait for it.
EIGHT. Yes, just EIGHT patients.
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Meanwhile we've had low to no new cases here down under in Middle Earth for the past few days. Stark contrast to what is happening overseas.
When I said Florida and Georgia were lying about decreasing cases, that was correct. New Zealand is probably lying too.
We're so early into this, and this virus is so deadly and so incredibly contagious that we can safely assume everywhere except probably New York (where Cuomo reacted in a swift, decisive, and science based manner) is lying about their numbers when they claim a decline.
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Like how the virus itself wasn't the coming plague that would herald the end of the world, this recession won't bring about the collapse of our economy.
I dunno man.
Maybe not directly. But economists are now saying that 50% of the layoffs are going to become permanent, and out of the retail companies covered by Standard Poors well over half are estimated to have a greater than 50% chance of default with some big name Chapter 7 bankruptcies already having been filed. The estimates I'm seeing are that the "real unemployment" rate is well over 30% and climbing. If that + new ones give us a rate that settles into a 20% real unemployment rate that's really bad. If there is any time in history when that kind of thing did NOT massively empower extremists and lead to significantly social upheaval I am unaware of it.
Nicker on 21/5/2020 at 19:53
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hard to buy things while unemployed.
Maybe trump should rescind the tax break for the 1% and all the corporate welfare he's been handing out and feed the hungry instead. At least that money will get spent.
However bad the economic effect this has on people it would.will be much worse if quarantines and stay at home orders are ignored. This isn't a matter of one or the other.
jkcerda on 21/5/2020 at 19:55
Quote Posted by Nicker
Maybe trump should rescind the tax break for the 1% and all the corporate welfare he's been handing out and feed the hungry instead. At least that money will get spent.
However bad the economic effect this has on people it would.will be much worse if quarantines and stay at home orders are ignored. This isn't a matter of one or the other.
that is an assumption based on earlier flawed models. see links in post 2210.
Nicker on 21/5/2020 at 20:58
91,000 dead already. Model that please.
Link 1 - irrelevant to disease spread.
Link 2 - The video contradicts the text. So if COVID is not "easily" spread on surfaces it is still spreading like crazy.
Link 3 and 4 - Georgia was caught LYING about their infection and death stats. I wonder why? (see post 2124)
But by all means do tell the people of Northern Italy that COVID isn't a real, life threatening problem.
