zombe on 13/5/2020 at 15:57
Up to date graphs of the stuff i track:
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https://postimg.cc/rK96H7z7)
Inline Image:
https://i.postimg.cc/rK96H7z7/cov19e.pngUK and Russia were added some long time ago when the Russian testing stats looked funny and i though to extend my tracking to see if their numbers make sense (and my OCD needed a second graph, so, UK too) - surprisingly all of their numbers do make sense so far (it is hard to meaningfully fudge with functions with exponential elements over time without weird stuff surfacing - plain scale you can fudge with, but i don't care about that much as all kinds of natural errors make that aspect of the numbers questionable at best anyway). Figures.
Reminder/additions:
* blue = daily new cases
* red = trend line for blue (over last 14 days to minimize noise from weekly cycles)
* green = daily tests (France and Spain numbers are not entirely redistributed for daily values - their reporting is an annoying mess i cannot be arsed to deal with all the time. The rest are fine.)
* yellow = daily deaths
* dark green = total case count
* dark red = total active cases (to see who and when is doing followups)
All of thous are on logarithmic scale (right side Y axis).
* light blue = total deaths / cases - fixed linear scale on left side Y axis
Percentage above the graph it the total final value for 'light blue' stat.
Est: Just recently started to do followup (my shorthand for closing up cases - ie. all the non-hospital / self quarantine positives). Started to open up restrictions some while ago - so far nothing, yet, has exploded - still in single digit daily new cases. Contact tracking "detectives" (not to be confused with non-epidemologist counterparts), which we reportedly have, should be happy about that - makes their job much easier.
Ita: Getting slowly better all the time and seems to have started doing a bit more followup.
Ger: Has been doing followup very diligently from the start (i remember noticing that almost 1.5 months ago - stood out among the others). Opened up restrictions a while ago, but are experiencing setbacks - ie. their "hit the brakes" criteria (50 new cases per 100K in region) is getting hit in various places.
Kor: Very similar to Germany, but was able to smother the outbreak from start (never even reached 1K cases per day). Now opened up again, but uptick has not yet reached the 100 line where they were previously stuck for a month. Hopefully they never get there back again. I have high hopes for them as their cultural acceptance of crap-in-your-face (read: mask) is remarkably helpful.
UK: Does no followup at all. As noted previously - their testing has ramped up a lot with case count remaining the same. Which means that deaths should drop and go in the opposite direction of tests - and they do.
US: Same as UK, but the ramp-up of testing is smaller and drop in deaths, expectedly, also smaller. Notable difference is in death/case ratios. UK is really bad - unfortunately also expectedly (UK had even worse testing than US and consequently their blue and yellow lines are way closer too). Besides Germany - ALL of the CC countries were just terrible in thous areas also. Worse than US in comparable stages. Europe was hit very hard and was not ready for any of it and only a month or so ago started to get on top of it. US had very inconsistent testing initially (initially = after third party testing in meaningful quantity started - time before that was a shitshow [note the light blue anomaly at the start]). States ranging from 0.02 - 0.5 in positive/test - favoring (due to lack of capability) to test where the virus is spreading the least. In some sense - wasting the limited testing capability (having a federal government would be useful here). To be fair, the waste was not big as hot-spots still dominated with their testing counts. Even so - CC had a worse start. From what i can gather - US did, actually, well in their initial outbreak (yes, really). Only problem seems to be that once they reached the peak - they got stuck there - whatever is being done seems to be barely enough to maintain a small downward trend. Not entirely sure why. Testing per case found has fallen behind of CC a lot - but that is about all.
Spa: Was very scary - thankfully things are way better now. Followup were spotty, but seems that things have calmed down enough that thous also have started to being done (2+ weeks ago).
Fra: Why you so silly France? The noise from reporting delays is staggering. Horrible testing (ignore the end peak, the earlier parts are fairly accurate tho). Horrible death / case ratio also. But at least the downward trends of cases and deaths is present and ongoing. Not much followups. Everything is weird. Any insight from locals?
World: "This isn't going away, is it?"
Rus: Late to the party, but thankfully exploding very slowly - as expected. Tests a lot and has matchingly low deaths. Does no followup.
Everyone has a very strong weekly cycle in new cases (understandable) and deaths (registering anomaly?) when not in outbreak/explosion phase.
Quote Posted by caffeinatedzombeh
I'm not all that sure you can compare countries in any meaningful way, I'm not even sure you can compare the same country over time as the way they count things changes so much.
Depends on what you mean by 'meaningful'. I could write a comprehensive comparison of apples vs oranges and find it very meaningful (ie. incomparability itself is a form of comparison). :) . Like, in this case - it would not neccessarily be to compare like with like and more on the lines of perhaps to note the differences and speculate on reasons for thous. For that i think both pots are of similar make and diverse enough to smoothen the outliers into something sufficiently comparable. When i started, thous two were essentially equal in case count from very different beginnings - but have now, again, diverged quite a bit. Giving plenty of differences to speculate on - or just to notice them.
Quote Posted by caffeinatedzombeh
Personally I'm working on the assumption that the NHS's labs are doing the tests for the same set of people they always have been and that their numbers are comparable over time to get some idea of what's actually happening with the spread of the virus. Their daily new cases (England, trend is a lot flatter in Scotland and Wales, couldn't find easily viewable historical data for NI but at 30 new cases a day I wasn't going to look too hard) has been dropping pretty consistently 500 a week from the peak of 4500 in early April and will hit ~0 in two weeks.
I am not well versed in UK internals to quite follow what you said :/. England is the part where things are rapidly improving?
UK, as a whole, is improving veeeery slowly. Do keep in mind that viruses are exponential business and changes in growth/decline tend to follow that and are hence probably best viewed on logarithmic scale - check the image. Nothing will get anywhere near 0 in any time soon - the changes are multiplicative and not additive. The new case and death lines, compensating for the strong weekly cycle, are pretty linear in logarithmic scale.
PS. Thanks for sharing your point of view.
Quote Posted by heywood
In my state (NH), the closures were fairly limited, and we're ending them early. As of yesterday 11 May, shopping malls re-opened, along with barbers, salons, and dentists. Restaurants (which have been doing take-out) will be serving customers again for outdoor dining on Mon, 18 May. ...
New Hampshire? I used that state for comparison to my country as their population count is the closest. Sadly, never wrote anything down and cannot remember anything notable - and they diverged too much to continue comparing.
(
https://covid19.healthdata.org/estonia)
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https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-hampshire)
I wonder how reliable the "social distancing" sections are. Accordingly to the links - the restrictions you have lifted never even existed for us.
Stay at home order: Never had that - you can leave home without needing any reason (in fact, for population mental health reasons, going out has been encouraged from the start with the accompanying advice how to do it safely and to avoid other, unnecessary, trips out of home). As the link tells you have that order - what exactly does that mean in NH?
All non-essential businesses closed: Not sure what would qualify. The page claims that whatever we had - did never qualify. I sure am glad i finally got an haircut before i went nutter-butter (managed to reserve my time early - heard that his reservations rapidly shot to over a month).
Travel severely limited: Technically true as stated, no country wide limitations. However, there were some targeted limitations here-n-there (ex: the island with the massive outbreak was quickly isolated - only what is needed can pass).
NH, the virus seems to be still in its spreading phase ("Daily infections and testing" section, "Confirmed infections" tab) - BUT, that on its own might be misleading. "Tests" tab shows that you just started testing (cases per test has almost halved - using the worst spot in mid April for comparison) which could count for the recent rise in confirmed cases. Whatever modelling the site uses tells that it is quite conceivable that the real daily infection count is actually going down. So, there is hope that it is not as bad as it might seem.
We, on the other hand, are nervously anticipating when and how hard the infections bounce back up - after we got them down and are now opening up.
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Sorry if i went too Engrish somewhere.
