bjack on 22/4/2020 at 18:25
Bad choice of words on my part Sulphur. However, One can show a very likely causation, but the antithesis (albeit unlikely) could be possibly true. One cannot absolutely prove a negative in all cases. One can only show extreme possibility of likelihood.
I’m talking about complex systems here, not math equations BTW. In math, you can prove a negative. In some simple systems you can “prove” a negative too. However, in a case such as this, one cannot prove that taking a drug or not taking a drug “fixed” anything. There is no control group, nor should there be due to the cruelty of doing such a Nazi thing. We are in compassionate “art” territory here. Magic potions in hopes they will work. There is no room for trials and controls groups.
In other words, there is no true way to prove or disprove hydroxy chloroquine is effeective at this time. It is purely anecdotal and circumstantial
Thanks for the response :)
Sulphur on 22/4/2020 at 18:36
There is definite room to prove that hydroxychloroquine is a non-effective treatment within a very low margin of error, but obviously we'll need far more data and a proper set of controlled, systematic tests and systemic analysis before the conclusion as to its efficacy or lack thereof (or for any other targeted treatment) is pronounced, one way or the other. Control groups and systematic population sampling, like it or not, are the only ways to get reliable results for any treatment.
I'm not saying we should force it, but if people would like to volunteer for clinical trials with the clear, unfettered knowledge that they'll have a 50-50 chance of getting an unproven drug that may or may not help mitigate the disease... well, I'd fucking salute them.*
In the absence of a vaccine at this juncture, I'm more interested in treatments with potential like remdesivir, which was being looked into since before all this really took off. It has a body of research available to pick apart, so it was potentially promising back then, and still potentially promising right now.
*Especially if it's hydroxychloroquine, and its ongoing complications like causing arrhythmia in some patients and apparently correlating to no impact or causing more deaths in at least one trial so far.
bjack on 22/4/2020 at 21:58
What I am happy to see is the relaxing of rules to allow people on their death beds to try nearly anything. I have also heard of remdesivir and other promising drugs. There is another that is used for treatment of AIDS. I mean WTH, try them out. And yes I salute those that would go into a trial. If I get infected though, if I have not already been, I want the treament, not the placebo.
As for a vaccine, this may be improbable. Who knows? Not WHO. Not the CDC, nor anyone else. We all hope it will be possible, but it just might be like the common cold or AIDS. Even “herd” immunity may be worthless if this virus mutates. We’ll see.
Lastly, in my area the death rate is 0.03% I’m in Washington state. The epicenter of the US infection. Pierce county. Very few infections and not many deaths. Oh, and lot’s of people are flaunting the stay at home rules. I work in an “essential service” industry, so I have to go out or quit. My hours have been reduced to just 8, one day a week. Our loving masters are not providing gloves or masks anymore. They are so thankful for our service, yet refuse to provie the gear necessary to keep us safe. Nice... Oh well.
Renzatic on 22/4/2020 at 22:53
Quote Posted by bjack
Lastly, in my area the death rate is 0.03% I'm in Washington state. The epicenter of the US infection.
I need to find that article again, but autopsies are showing us that this has been here in the states for slightly longer than we initially expected, and the spread model is now being adjusted to account for these new discoveries. It turns out the first two deaths are now believed to belong to a couple of people in Santa Clara, CA. who died of the virus at home two weeks earlier than the guy in Washington.
edit: (
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/2-californians-died-of-coronavirus-weeks-before-previously-known-1st-us-death/ar-BB131OPm) Here it is.
Starker on 22/4/2020 at 23:50
Quote Posted by bjack
It is my understanding that hydroxy chloroquine is being given to “mostly” terminal patients. It is a last ditch effort. If it is proven to be ineffective, which is quiet possible, then stop using it. If it is only 5% effective for patients that will die anyway, then use it.
Keep in mind that one cannot prove a negative. How many that have died that did not get hydroxy chloroquine would have lived? How many of those that lived that got hydroxy chloroquine would have anyway?
That's not the issue, though? The issue is that your president encourages people to take it "just in case" and his propaganda channel touts stories of people who "miraculously" recovered (and weren't anywhere near terminal).
Of course, he doesn't have anything to lose -- if the drug had been found to have even a minor positive effect, he'd get to take all the credit and if the drug turns out to have an adverse effect, he was just spitballing.
Nicker on 23/4/2020 at 00:42
I wasn't sure which thread to put this in, here or the Trump Dump. After inciting a back to work insurrection and promising to open America for business, Trump chides a Governor because he opened his state for business.
[video=youtube;gnT2XPG9Jbo]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnT2XPG9Jbo[/video]
Renzatic on 23/4/2020 at 00:56
It's amazing watching this whiplash of a political dog and pony show. Trump's been posting his usual LIBERATE bullshit, and Kemp? Kemp was up on the podium, saying we have to open the state NOW! The cure can't be worse than the disease! The usual spiel. All the Trump fans on Facebook have been mimicking them.
...then suddenly this.
Now they're just posting up Trump Train gifs.
Gotta give props to the guy, at least. It is the right call. We're one of the worst off states in the union, and it is too soon to open things back up. But, you know, some goddamn consistency would be nice.
demagogue on 23/4/2020 at 01:19
What a shit show that man is. It's pointless asking for consistency because that man does not care about the actual policy or spread of the disease or the economy or personal liberty or any of it. It's all power plays for him and displays of royal prerogative to stoke his NPD-addled mid-brain. He gets a quick dopaminergic rush from slamming a governor because he's the boss and he can decide when a state is ready or not. There's no plan or long term strategy to it. He acts on impulses that come to him in the moment, and I really think he can't get any larger perspective on anything happening more than 4 inches from the ground.
Pyrian on 23/4/2020 at 04:42
You can always claim you were right if you take both sides of every issue. And the fact that the other side is pointing out that you were also wrong about everything doesn't matter much.
