caffeinatedzombeh on 20/4/2020 at 14:25
Quote Posted by Tony_Tarantula
Edit; my first post was too mean even for him.
Your first post was an interesting exercise in furthering the continuing quest to discover which of you is the pot and which the kettle.
Trump getting back in I suspect depends entirely on what the economic recovery from this looks like. Given that any sane response over there is impossible as it's a bit too close to socialism for most of them to consider I think he might not manage it.
heywood on 20/4/2020 at 15:13
Renzatic and jkcerda, can you please do us a favor and stop the tit-for-tat machine gun posting that's dominated the thread for the last two days?
It's bad enough in the Trump thread, but this one is about a GLOBAL pandemic. Personally, I want to know how everybody is doing around the world, share, and learn about what we're going through. Not wade through pages of you guys dueling each other via tweet over US virus politics.
zombe on 20/4/2020 at 16:21
Quote Posted by Renzatic
Once all this is over, and we have the luxury of spending more time going over the evidence, the fatality rate will end up averaging out to the same numbers we've seen elsewhere.
Um, sort of ... in general - they will converge but remain significantly (in error bar sense) different ... a bit of clarification perhaps ...
Differently from common flu - this virus mostly kills in one side of age line. For the total death rates to fully converge it is necessary that:
* population pyramids to be similar.
* health care system to be similarly capable throughout the crisis (inc. no variations from local/temporal overtaxing events).
* comparable exposedness for the virus in all age groups (ie. ability and willingness to protect risk groups).
So, worst case:
* population pyramid is top heavy and tall.
* dominant hot-spots that overwhelm health care system in affected regions.
* outbreak is sudden - risk groups fail to protect themselves and others fail to do their part in protecting them also.
* virus gets widespread - it gets more difficult to protect risk group people if the infections are widespread (worst case: affecting nearly everyone till herd immunity kicks in and kills the virus off).
* health care system gets overwhelmed.
* virus gets to spread rapidly without obstructions (will result in near total spread, but protection from herd immunity will be less effective for risk groups).
* no steps are taken to protect risk groups for whatever reason (ex: even merely delaying exposure risks for them will greatly help due to herd immunity as the possible contact chains for the virus will be broken over time for them).
All of thous have quite a bit of variation among countries. Even if no vaccines show up and the virus gets to kill itself off by infecting everyone it can find - the results will vary depending on previously noted factors.
I think the total fatality rate among all the infected (let's assume 100% accurate counting here), when all is said and done, will end up varying considerably per country with similar population pyramids and similarly capable health care systems.
For example: Italy/NY numbers will likely never line up with many other otherwise comparable countries/states.
Renzatic on 20/4/2020 at 19:52
Sage advice from Shapiro. If you want to project the idea that Americans are responsible enough to take care of themselves during this pandemic, you might want to lead by example.
Meanwhile, in reality...
Inline Image:
https://i.imgur.com/7EmiDID.jpgI'm pretty sure those people are a lot closer than 6 feet apart. Though to be fair, that one lady on the left does have a mask on.
And JK. Quit posting twice in a row. Edit your previous links, or wait until someone else posts before making a new one.
If you keep doing it, I'm gonna give you a week boot. Then you won't have anyone to whine at about tyranny.
Renzatic on 20/4/2020 at 20:34
Quote Posted by jkcerda
is that not tyranny itself?
What? Me banning you for a week for doubleposting? It is officially against the rules. I've just been lax about enforcing it.
Quote:
if they eased restrictions people would NOT be this restless. it's fucking stupid to concentrate EVERYONE into just the markets & walmart, with nowhere else to go the sick end up going to .............markets & walmart.
Between the haphazard policies put in place at the last minute, and the people bucking against it all for the simple sake of it, the whole thing is pretty well fucky. All we've done is show the world exactly who and what we are: the inept leading the stupid and easily frightened.
(
https://imgur.com/gallery/hHEzqDV) Also, this is pretty neat.
