Neb on 18/4/2020 at 20:35
Look into positive and negative predictive value in clinical screening. It uses sensitivity and specificity and is similar to Bayesian probability I think in analysing outcomes.
SubJeff on 18/4/2020 at 22:52
Quote Posted by zombe
English is hard man.
I have been trying to understand the meanings of "specificity" (how good at avoiding false positives) and "sensitivity"
It's not English, per se, but scientific use of the words.
The way to remember it is this -
Sensi
tivi
ty is the True Trues. Test positive and are really positive. All called the true positive rate.
Speci
fici
ty is the False Trues. Test negative and are really negative. Also called the true negative rate.
So the letters in the words tell you. Simple, eh?
jkcerda on 18/4/2020 at 23:08
the natives are restless, protest going on in huntington beach and others programmed for San Diego
Inline Image:
https://scontent-lax3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/92484522_221482072526383_4949578581731704832_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_sid=b96e70&_nc_ohc=2LCa9G9H7vcAX-F6nYO&_nc_ht=scontent-lax3-2.xx&oh=ebb5ea3d13cebf5dc2b70d40ce2ec461&oe=5EC03680it's too soon, we are going to screw the pooch thanks to our retard GOVT .
things are NOT easy any way you slice it, from a numbers stand point shit does NOT make sense, not to the degree that it will kill our economy, from a libertarian perspective the state has gone full retard, from a pragmatic perspective with a pandemic going on they seeming had to since no one fucking listens. if we were the ONLY country doing fucking lock downs then I would understand the bullshit, this virus seemingly is very contagious but the kill rate is 1-2 percent, I get that we can't overwhelm our hospitals & that we should practice social distancing and stay home as much as possible. that said this is MURIKA and prohibition tends to have the OPPOSITE effect here, that coupled with our stupid GOVT being clear as mud makes for a cluster fuck waiting to happen, people can't afford to stay home and 1200 bucks sure as hell are not going to cover shit. I do foresee more deaths from suicide from people who can't handle stress very well than from the virus.
Starker on 18/4/2020 at 23:41
The ironic thing is that people are pushing for this because they want to get the economy getting going as soon as possible in time of election, but without people actually having the confidence it's safe to go out and buy things, it's more likely to to wreak havoc for all the businesses who gear up to full staff and production.
Renzatic on 18/4/2020 at 23:44
Quote Posted by jkcerda
things are NOT easy any way you slice it, from a numbers stand point shit does NOT make sense, not to the degree that it will kill our economy, from a libertarian perspective the state has gone full retard, from a pragmatic perspective with a pandemic going on they seeming had to since no one fucking listens. if we were the ONLY country doing fucking lock downs then I would understand the bullshit, this virus seemingly is very contagious but the kill rate is 1-2 percent, I get that we can't overwhelm our hospitals & that we should practice social distancing and stay home as much as possible. that said this is MURIKA and prohibition tends to have the OPPOSITE effect here, that coupled with our stupid GOVT being clear as mud makes for a cluster fuck waiting to happen, people can't afford to stay home and 1200 bucks sure as hell are not going to cover shit. I do foresee more deaths from suicide from people who can't handle stress very well than from the virus.
It seems we're the only 1st world nation that's forcing it's citizens to risk the lives of millions to save their livelihoods.
Quote Posted by Starker
The ironic thing is that people are pushing for this because they want to get the economy getting going as soon as possible in time of election, but without people actually having the confidence it's safe to go out and buy things, it's more likely to to wreak havoc for all the businesses who gear up to full staff and production.
We're kinda fucked if we do, fucked if we don't. If we could have endured another month, we'd be on the downswing of this. We could start doing the phased progression back to normalcy, spend the next few months being careful, and we'd have this thing beat with only minimal damage to the economy, and a better case scenario on the number of deaths.
It seems we can't even do that. I guarantee you we'll have a number of states wide open before May 1st rolls around, right when we just pass the crest of number of infected. We'll see a repeat of what happened in 1918, when some cities broke quarantine too early, and experienced another peak.
I wonder who Trump will blame then.
I wonder how many people who attended these rallies contracted coronavirus.
I wonder who they'll blame.
jkcerda on 18/4/2020 at 23:53
Starker, forget the damn election, who the hell can afford to stay home for a whole month with just $1200 bucks? how many businesses can afford to close doors for a month or more? the state is retarded.
going to copy paste some crap here.
********When the State tells you it's safe to go to Home Depot to buy a sponge but dangerous to go and buy a flower, it's not about your health.
When the State shuts down millions of private businesses but doesn't lay off a single government employee, it's not about your health.
When the State bans dentists because its unsafe, but deems abortion visit is safe, it's not about your health.
When the State prevents you from buying cucumber seeds because it's dangerous, but allows in person lottery ticket sales, it's not about your health.
When the State tells you it's dangerous to go golf alone, fish alone or be in a motor boat alone, but the Governor can get his stage make up done, and hair done for 5 TV appearances a week, it's not about your health.
WAKE UP PEOPLE — THIS IS NOT ABOUT YOUR HEALTH
Copy and pasted. I take no credit, but agree 100%.
***********
I DON'T agree 100% as it has a nasty r-wing bias to it but you need to sit the F down and try to add 2+2=?????? the states and this includes TRUMP say one thing and do as they see fit, how many of those assholes in GOVT have you seen practicing what they preach? where are their fucking gloves? mask? why are they so close together?
did you see the protest down in Michigan? their governor Lord farqaad (yes she does look and act like him) has gone full retard, they are doing things outside IMHO of their power
Inline Image:
https://media1.tenor.co/images/25780a299cb0698614883177f7ea7195/tenor.gif?itemid=4571303&fbclid=IwAR2QAxs8Awedo4QqDH2PcfLBafm3hk5KwTlgi86t9GLjIXDm52CPnramNrIthe more you tell & try to force Murikans to do something the more we resist and do the opposite.
the numbers seemingly do NOT justify the level of dumbfuckery our POS GOVT has engaged in.
Renzatic on 18/4/2020 at 23:58
They're not trying to hide it at all. The Michigan Conservative Coalition put itself front and center organizing the protests in their namesake state, and they're supposedly helping other states do the same.
It's not a conspiracy. This is what they want. They're putting their name on it for everyone to see.
Renzatic on 19/4/2020 at 00:04
Quote Posted by jkcerda
the numbers seemingly do NOT justify the level of dumbfuckery our POS GOVT has engaged in.
They whole thing has been pretty haphazard, but the stay at home orders did ultimately help drive down the numbers, which itself justifies the response. If we just continued life as usual, it'd be spreading about like a time delayed flu, and probably be seeing 2,000,000 infected by this point rather than the current 750,000.
Inline Image:
https://i.imgur.com/D9lBmWI.jpegStarker on 19/4/2020 at 00:11
Quote Posted by jkcerda
Starker, forget the damn election, who the hell can afford to stay home for a whole month with just $1200 bucks? how many businesses can afford to close doors for a month or more? the state is retarded.
It's not up to Lord Dampnut, though, or protesters, it's up to the consumer. If the demand is not going to be there when you open up the economy, if the people aren't going out to dine and wine and spend, guess what will happen then? If you think businesses can't afford to close for a month, guess how well they can afford it when they still have little to no income and a full payroll and other expenses.
Somehow, all over the world, governments are handling this. They are paying 70%-100% percent of a lot of people's salaries, so that companies can afford to keep them on the payroll. And that's what a state is there for -- to provide that security net. But of course this wouldn't work in the US, because that's socialism.
